【正文】 Ben Shneiderman, professor of puter science at the University of Maryland, wrote, “Robots and AI make pelling stories for journalists, but they are a false vision of the major economic changes. Journalists lost their jobs because of changes to advertising, professors are threatened by MOOCs, and store salespeople are losing jobs to Inter sales people. Improved user interfaces, electronic delivery (videos, music, etc.), and more selfreliant customers reduce job needs. At the 7 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g same time someone is building new websites, managing corporate social media plans, creating new products, etc. Improved user interfaces, novel services, and fresh ideas will create more jobs.” Amy Webb, CEO of strategy firm Webbmedia Group, wrote, “There is a general concern that the robots are taking over. I disagree that our emerging technologies will permanently displace most of the workforce, though I39。s political boundaries). Driven by revolutions in education and in technology, the very nature of work will have changed radically—but only in economies that have chosen to invest in education, technology, and related infrastructure. Some classes of jobs will be handed over to the ?immigrants? of AI and Robotics, but more will have been generated in creative and curating activities as demand for their services grows exponentially while barriers to entry continue to fall. For many classes of jobs, robots will continue to be poor labor substitutes.” 6 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g Rangaswami?s prediction incorporates a number of arguments made by those in this canvassing who took his side of this question. Argument 1: Throughout history, technology has been a job creator—not a job destroyer Vint Cerf, vice president and chief Inter evangelist for Google, said, “Historically, technology has created more jobs than it destroys and there is no reason to think otherwise in this case. Someone has to make and service all these advanced devices.” Jonathan Grudin, principal researcher for Microsoft, concurred: “Technology will continue to disrupt jobs, but more jobs seem likely to be created. When the world population was a few hundred million people there were hundreds of millions of jobs. Although there have always been unemployed people, when we reached a few billion people there were billions of jobs. There is no shortage of things that need to be done and that will not change.” Michael Kende, the economist for a major Interoriented nonprofit anization, wrote, “In general, every wave of automation and puterization has increased productivity without depressing employment, and there is no reason to think the same will not be true this time. In particular, the new wave is likely to increase our personal or professional productivity (. self driving car) but not necessarily directly displace a job (. chauffeur). While robots may displace some manual jobs, the impact should not be different than previous waves of automation in factories and elsewhere. On the other hand, someone will have to code and build the new tools, which will also likely lead to a new wave of innovations and jobs.” Fred Baker, Inter pioneer, longtime leader in the IETF and Cisco Systems Fellow, responded, “My observation of advances in automation has been that they change jobs, but they don39。 Pew Research Center 20xx About the Imagining the Inter Center at Elon University The Imagining the Inter Center? s mission is to explore and provide insights into emerging work innovations, global development, dynamics, diffusion and governance. Its research holds a mirror to humanity?s use of munications technologies, informs policy development, exposes potential futures and provides a historic record. It works to illuminate issues in order to serve the greater good, making its work public, free and open. The center is a work of Elon University faculty, students, staff, alumni, advisers, and friends working to identify, explore and engage with the challenges and opportunities of evolving munications forms and issues. They investigate the tangible and potential pros and cons of newmedia channels through active research. The Imagining the Inter Center sponsors work that brings people together to share their visions for the future of munications and the future of the world. 3 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g Table of Contents About This Report 1 Key Findings 4 About this Canvassing of Experts 16 Predictions for the State of AI and Robotics in 2025 19 Views from Those Who Expect AI and Robotics to Have a Positive or Neutral Impact on Jobs by 2025 33 Views from Those Who Expect AI and Robotics to Displace More Jobs than They Create by 2025 44 Areas Where Both Groups Agree 55 4 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g Key Findings The vast majority of respondents to the 20xx Future of the Inter canvassing anticipate that robotics and artificial intelligence will permeate wide segments of daily life by 2025, with huge implications for a range of industries such as health care, transport and logistics, customer service, and home maintenance. But even as they are largely consistent in their predictions for the evolution of technology itself, they are deeply divided on how advances in AI and robotics will impact the economic and employment picture over the next decade. We call this a canvassing because it is not a representative, randomized survey. Its findings emerge from an “opt in” invitation to experts who have been identified by researching those who are widely quoted as technology builders and analysts and those who have made insightful predictions to our previous queries about the future of the Inter. (For more details, please see the section “About this Canvassing of Experts.”) Key themes