【正文】 ........................................................ 1 Economics of AIDriven Automation ................................................................................................................................ 1 Policy Responses ................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................................................. 4 Outreach and Development of this Report ............................................................................................................................. 5 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Economics of AIDriven Automation ....................................................................................................................................... 8 AI and the Macroeconomy : Technology and Productivity Growth .............................................................................. 8 AI and the Labor Market: Diverse Potential Effects .....................................................................................................10 Historical Effects of Technical Change ...........................................................................................................................11 AI and the Labor Market: The Near Term ......................................................................................................................13 What kind of jobs will AI create? ....................................................................................................................................18 Technology is Not Destiny—Institutions and Policies Are Critical ...........................................................................21 Policy Res ponses ..........................................................................................................................................................................26 Strategy 1: Invest In and Develop AI for its Many Benefits .....................................................................................27 Strategy 2: Educate and Train Americans for Jobs of the Future .............................................................................30 Strategy 3: Aid Workers in the Transition and Empower Workers to Ensure Broadly Shared Growth .............34 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................................................................43 References .....................................................................................................................................................................................44 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, AUTOMATION, AND THE ECONOMY 1 Executive Summary Accelerating artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities will enable automation of some tasks that have long required human These transformations will open up new opportunities for individuals, the economy, and society, but they have the potential to disrupt the current livelihoods of millions of Americans. Whether AI leads to unemployment and increases in inequality over the longrun depends not only on the technology itself but also on the institutions and policies that are in place. This report examines the expected impact of AIdriven automation on the economy, and describes broad strategies that could increase the benefits of AI and mitigate its costs. Economics of AIDriven Automation Technological progress is the main driver of growth of GDP per capita, allowing output to increase faster than labor and capital. One of the main ways that technology increases productivity is by decreasing the number of labor hours needed to create a unit of output. Labor productivity increases generally translate into increases in average wages, giving workers the opportunity to cut back on work hours and to afford more goods and services. Living standards and leisure hours could both increase, although to the degree that inequality increases—as it has in recent decades—it offsets some of those gains. AI should be weled for its potential economic benefits. Those economic benefits, however, will not necessarily be evenly distributed across society. For example, the 19th century was characterized by technological change that raised the productivity of lowerskilled workers relative to that of higherskilled workers. Highlyskilled artisans who controlled and executed full production processes saw their livelihoods threatened by the rise of mass production technologies. Ultimately, many skilled crafts were replaced by the bination of machines and lowerskilled labor. Output per hour rose while inequality declined, driving up average living standards, but the labor of some highskill workers was no longer as valuable in the market. In contrast, technological change tended to work in a different direction throughout the late 20th century. The advent of puters and the Inter raised the relative productivity of higher skilled workers. Routineintensive occupations that focused on predictable, easilyprogrammable tasks—such as switchboard operators, filing clerks, travel agents, and assembly line workers— were particularly vulnerable to replacement by new technologies. Some occupations were virtually eliminated and demand for others reduced. Research suggests that technological innovation over this period increased the productivity of those engaged in abstract thinking, creative tasks, and problemsolving and