【正文】 a recent analysis of 12 developed economies (including the United States) 3 ―Big Data: Seizing Opportunities, Preserving Values,‖ Executive Office of the President, May 20xx, 4 For more information about AI and its policy implications, see: The White House, ―Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence,‖ October 20xx.( ). 5 The ImageNet Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge provides a set of photographic images and asks for an accurate description of what is depicted in each image. Statistics in the text refer to the ―classification error‖ metric in the ―classification+localization with provided training data‖ task. See 6 Ge Graetz and Guy Michaels, ―Robots at Work,‖ CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP10477, March 20xx ( ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, AUTOMATION, AND THE ECONOMY 7 found that AI has the potential to double annual economic growth rates in the countries analyzed by Some experts have characterized the rise of AIdriven automation as one of the most important economic and social developments in history. The World Economic Forum has characterized it as the lynchpin of a Fourth Industrial Furthermore, the economist Andrew McAfee wrote, ―Digital technologies are doing for human brainpower what the steam engine and related technologies did for human muscle power during the Industrial Revolution. They‘re allowing us to overe many limitations rapidly and to open up new frontiers with unprecedented speed. It‘s a very big deal. But how exactly it will play out is uncertain.‖9 At the same time, AIdriven automation has yet to have a quantitatively major impact on productivity growth. In fact, measured productivity growth over the last decade has slowed in almost every advanced economy. It is plausible, however, that the pace of measured productivity growth will pick up in the ing years. To the degree that AIdriven automation realizes its potential to drive tremendous positive advancement in diverse fields, it will make Americans better off on average. But, there is no guarantee that everyone will benefit. AIdriven changes in the job market in the United States will cause some workers to lose their jobs, even while creating new jobs elsewhere. The economic pain this causes will fall more heavily upon some than on others. Policymakers must consider what can be done to help those families and munities get back on their feet and assemble the tools they need to thrive in the transformed economy and share in its benefits. 7 Paul Daugherty and Mark Purdy, ―Why AI is the Future of Growth,‖ 20xx ( w /usen/_amedia/PDF33/AccentureWhyAIistheFuture zoom=50). 8 Klaus Schwab, ―The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond,‖ World Economic Forum, Janua ry 20xx ( . wefo rum .or g/age nd a/201 6/0 1/the fo urthindustrialrevolutio nw hatitm ea nsa nd how torespond/). (The first three industrial revolutions are listed as those driven by steam power, electricity, and electronics.) 9 Amy Bernstein and Anand Raman, ―The Great Decoupling: An Interview with Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee,‖ Harvard Business Review, June 20xx ( ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, AUTOMATION, AND THE ECONOMY 8 Economics of AIDriven Automation Accelerating AI capabilities will enable automation of some tasks that have long required human labor. Rather than relying on closelytailored rules explicitly crafted by programmers, modern AI programs can learn from patterns in whatever data they encounter and develop their own rules for how to interpret new information. This means that AI can solve problems and learn with very little human input. In addition, advances in robotics are expanding machines‘ abilities to interact with and shape the physical world. Combined, AI and robotics will give rise to smarter machines that can perform more sophisticated functions than ever before and erode some of the advantages that humans have exercised. This will permit automation of many tasks now performed by human workers and could change the shape of the labor market and human activity. These transformations may open up new opportunities for individuals, the economy, and society, but they may also foreclose opportunities that are currently essential to the livelihoods of many Americans. This chapter explores the important role that AIdriven automation is likely to have in growing the economy and potential effects on labor markets and munities. It draws on economic theory and empirical studies of past technological transformations and applies these lessons to the current context. While there are many reasons to think that changes in the labor market prompted by AIdriven automation will be similar to what has been observed in the past, this chapter will also discuss arguments for how the current period could be different from previous technological revolutions. Critically, technology alone will not determine the economic outes in terms of growth, inequality or employme nt. The advanced economies all have had access to similar levels of technology but have had very different outes along all of these dimensio ns because they have had different institutions and policies. But understanding the technological forces is critical to sha。3 which provided raw material for dramatically improved machine learning approaches and algorithms。 economic incentives and public policy can play a significant role in shaping the direction and effects of technological change. Given appropriate attention and the right policy and institutional responses, advanced automation can be patible with productivity, high levels of employment, and more broadly shared prosperity. In the past, the . economy has adapted to new production patterns and maintained high le