【正文】 t afford to buy the car.” Alex Howard, a writer and editor based in Washington, ., said, “I expect that automation and AI will have had a substantial impact on whitecollar jobs, particularly backoffice functions in g 12 PEW RESEARCH CENTER clinics, in law firms, like medical secretaries, transcriptionists, or paralegals. Governments will have to collaborate effectiv ely with technology panies and academic institutions to provide massive retraining efforts over the next decade to prevent massive social disruption from these changes.” A consistent theme among both groups is that our existing social institutions—especially the educational system—are not up to the challenge of preparing workers for the technology and roboticscentric nature of employment in the future. Howard Rheingold, a pioneering Inter sociologist and selfemployed writer, consultant, and educator, noted, “The jobs that the robots will leave for humans will be those that require thought and knowledge. In other words, only the besteducated humans will pete with machines. And education systems in the . and much of the rest of the world are still sitting students in rows and columns, teaching them to keep quiet and memorize what is told to them, preparing them for life in a 20th century factory.” Bryan Alexander, technology consultant, futurist, and senior fellow at the National Institute for Technology in Liberal Education, wrote, “The education system is not well positioned to transform itself to help shape graduates who can ?race against the machines.? Not in time, and not at scale. Autodidacts will do well, as they always have done, but the broad masses of people are being prepared for the wrong economy.” On a more hopeful note, a number of experts expressed a belief that the ing changes will allow us to renegotiate the existing social pact around work and employment. Possibility 1: We will experience less drudgery and more leisure time Hal Varian, chief economist for Google, envisions a future with fewer ?jobs? but a more equitable distribution of labor and leisure time: “If ?displace more jobs? means ?eliminate dull, repetitive, and unpleasant work,? the answer would be yes. How unhappy are you that your dishwasher has replaced washing dishes by hand, your washing machine has displaced washing clothes by hand, or your vacuum cleaner has replaced hand cleaning? My guess is this ?job displacement? has been very wele, as will the ?job displacement? that will occur over the next 10 years. The work week g 13 PEW RESEARCH CENTER has fallen from 70 hours a week to about 37 hours now, and I expect that it will continue to fall.。botbased economy?” Nilofer Merchant, author of a book on new forms of advantage, wrote, “Just today, the guy who drives the service car I take to go to the airport [said that he] does this job because his last blue collar job disappeared from automation. Driverless cars displace him. Where does he go? What does he do for society? The gaps between the haves and havenots will grow larger. I39。 or creativity…An increasing proportion of the world39。 truck driver is the numberone occupation for men in the .. Just as importantly, autonomous cars will radically decrease car ownership, which will impact the automotive industry. Perhaps 70% of cars in urban areas would go away. Autonomous robots and systems could impact up to 50% of jobs, according to recent analysis by Frey and Osborne at Oxford, leaving only jobs that require the 39。 Society, said, “Robots and AI will increasingly replace routine kinds of work—even the plex routines performed by artisans, factory workers, lawyers, and accountants. There will be a labor market in the service sector for nonroutine tasks that can be performed interchangeably by just about anyone—and these will not pay a living wage—and there will be some new opportunities created for plex nonroutine work, but the gains at this top of the labor market will not be offset by losses in the middle and gains of terrible jobs at the bottom. I39。s work.? There is great pain down the road for everyone as new realities are addressed. The only question is how soon.” Robert Cannon, Inter law and policy expert, predicts, “Everything that can be automated will be automated. Nonskilled jobs lacking in ?human contribution? will be replaced by automation when the economics are favorable. At the hardware store, the guy who used to cut keys has been replaced by a robot. In the law office, the clerks who used to prepare discovery have been replaced by software. IBM Watson is replacing researchers by reading every report ever written anywhere. This begs the question: What can the human contribute? The short answer is that if the job is one where that question cannot be answered positively, that job is not likely to exist.” Tom Standage, digital editor for The Economist, makes the point that the next wave of technology is likely to have a more profound impact than those that came before it: “Previous technological revolutions happened much more slowly, so people had longer to retrain, and [also] moved people from one kind of unskilled work to another. Robots and AI threaten to make even some kinds of skilled work obsolete (., legal clerks). This will displace people into service roles, and the ine gap between skilled workers whose jobs cannot be automated and everyone else will widen. This is a recipe for instability.” Mark Nall, a program manager for NASA, noted, “Unlike previous disruptions such as when farming machinery displaced farm workers but created factory jobs making the machines, robotics and AI are different. Due to their versatility and growing capabilities, not just a few economic sectors will be affected, but whole swaths will be. This is