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【正文】 1 2 3 ... SF SF10 mln SF10 mln SF10 mln ... forecast: .50 $/SF .50 $/SF .50 $/SF ... So V = $5 mln / .10 = $50 mln E[$ CF] $5 mln $5 mln $5 mln ... 10% What if SF depreciates 2%, to .49 $/DM? Year 1 2 3 ... SF SF10 mln SF10 mln SF10 mln ... forecast: .50 $/SF .50 $/SF .50 $/SF ... $50 mln E[$ CF] V 10% New exchange rate implies new Xrate forecasts Year 1 2 3 ... SF SF10 mln SF10 mln SF10 mln ... forecast: .49 $/SF .49 $/SF .49 $/SF ... E[$ CF] $ mln $ mln $ mln ... V 10% and new projected dollar cash flows Year 1 2 3 ... SF SF10 mln SF10 mln SF10 mln ... forecast: .49 $/SF .49 $/SF .49 $/SF ... E[$ CF] $ mln $ mln $ mln ... $49 mln 10% and reduces the value of the firm by $1 mln. Year 1 2 3 ... SF SF10 mln SF10 mln SF10 mln ... forecast: .49 $/SF .49 $/SF .49 $/SF ... Year 1 2 3 ... SF SF10 mln SF10 mln SF10 mln ... Operating exposure: $1 mln change in firm value for every 2% change in the current $/SF rate Measuring operating exposure ? Requires a longerterm perspective: viewing the firm as an ongoing concern with price and cost petitiveness affected by exchange rate changes ? Requires an overall assessment of the industry: – Nationality of petitors suppliers – firm?s degree of market power Example: Volvo ? Structure: ? Imports supplies from Germany ? produces in Sweden ? Sells in . ? Major petition: ? German cars (BMW, Mercedes, Audi) ? Most important risks ? Swedish krona vs. DM (not especially vs. $) ? Swedish interest rates ? German producer prices Measuring operating exposure ? Types of firms: ? Pricetaking firms ? Pricesetting firms with market power Pricetaking firms 1. Analyze impact of unexpected, persistent exchange rate changes upon localcurrency foreign market prices, for indefinite future –Who?s the petition? 2. Analyze impact on homecurrency cash flows 3. Decide what to do about the exchange rate related operating exposure. Simple example, revisited ? . firm expects 10 mln SF/year from exports to Switzerland, indefinitely. ? Assumptions: – Compet
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