【正文】 1 .0 %5 .0 %7 .9 % 8 .0 % 4 .0 % 0 .0 % 4 .0 % 8 .0 %M in iva nS p o r t W a g o nL u x u r y Ca rM id d le SUVS m a ll Pi ck u pS m a ll SU VL u x u r y SUVUS Dollar per Euro: Jan 03 Present Source: FactSet amp。 Man Stanley Research Market Share Winners / Losers – FY03 Source: Autodata amp。 Man Stanley Research Y/Y Change in Monthly New Car CPI Source: CPI amp。 Man Stanley Research 2020 2020 Ford Nissan (122) 250 308 2020 Ford GM (211) (98) 80 = 100,000 units GM Ford Honda Nissan Toyota 125 (146) 180 200 30 Net Increase Of 853,000 Units or Roughly % of NA sales 2020 Toyota 150 389 180 Toyota DCX Hyundai 235 6 Excess Capacity amp。 Man Stanley Research Peak Trough Now Jan02 Oct02 Nov03 Interest Rates Consumer Confidence Gasoline Prices Used Car Prices Employment Affordability Near 25 Year Best 171819202122231 Q 8 0 4 Q 8 3 3 Q 8 7 2 Q 9 1 1 Q 9 5 4 Q 9 8 3 Q 0 2Number of Weeks of Ine to Purchase a Vehicle Source: FRB amp。 Man Stanley Research 3 0 . 0 04 0 . 0 05 0 . 0 06 0 . 0 07 0 . 0 0J u n 71J u n 74J u n 77J u n 80J u n 83J u n 86J u n 89J u n 92J u n 95J u n 98J u n 01Taking Longer to Establish Consumer Equity Source: FRB amp。 Man Stanley Research Off Lease Vehicles Begin to Decline Source: Manheim amp。 excess capacity suggest deflation / revenue pressures are likely to continue. ? Not everybody can be a winner. ? Winners will be low cost producers who deliver a good product that consumers are willing to pay for. Modest Demand Growth Demand growth is likely to be modest despite economic recovery: ? Auto sales did not weaken materially in the most recent recession and thus, significant pentup demand was never created. ? The number of offlease vehicles is falling sharply – fewer consumers are being forced back to a dealer to buy or lease a new vehicle. ? Extended financing terms are likely to prolong vehicle turnover. ? Economic conditions appear mixed. Light Vehicle Sales Trend Line Demand Source: Man Stanley Research Vehi c le Sal e s1 9 8 6 20 0 4 Ey = 1 6 3 . 5 6 x + 1 3 7 1 2R2 = 0 . 4 0 5 91 2 ,0 0 01 3 ,0 0 01 4 ,0 0 01 5 ,0 0 01 6 ,0 0 01 7 ,0 0 01 8 ,0 0 01986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2020 2020 2020E(in 000 units)T r o u g hP e a k20202020T r e n d li n e G r o w t h 1 .0 %2020ELight Vehicle Sales Cycle: Trough to Trough Source: . Polk, Global Insight amp。A FY2020E: OEMs Spending for Growth Source: Company data amp。 Man Stanley Research Japanese SAAR 4 , 3 0 05 , 1 0 05 , 9 0 06 , 7 0 07 , 5 0 08 , 3 0 09 , 1 0 0J a n 9 3 J a n 9 5 J a n 9 7 J a n 9 9 J a n 0 1 J a n 0 3S A A R3 m t h m ov i ng a v g Units FY03E Units FY04E Source: Man Stanley Research Western European SAAR 1 0 , 5 0 01 2 , 0 0 01 3 , 5 0 01 5 , 0 0 01 6 , 5 0 0J a n 9 4 J a n 9 6 J a n 9 8 J a n 0 0 J a n 0 2S A A R3 m t h m ov i ng a v g FY03E FY04E Source: Man Stanley Research Global Excess Capacity at 25%30% or 20mm units 4050607080902020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 20207 0 . 0 %7 2 . 5 %7 5 . 0 %7 7 . 5 %8 0 . 0 %A s s e m b y C a p a c i t yU t i l i z a t i o nSource: Autofacts amp。 Man Stanley Research Global Sales Forecasts: 2020 2020 Source: Global Insight amp。P. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Man Stanley. Additional information on remended securities is available on request. Overview Auto Outlook: Same problems。 Co. International Limited, solely for the purposes of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2020. Private . investors should obtain the advice of their Man Stanley amp。 Co. Incorporated and Man Stanley DW Inc., which accept responsibility for its contents。 in Spain by Man Stanley, .,., a Man Stanley group pany, which is supervised by the Spanish Securities Markets Commission (CNMV) and states that this document has been written and distributed in accordance with the rules of conduct applicable to financial research as established under Spanish regulations。 in Australia by Man Stanley Dean Witter Australia Limited . 67 003 734 576, a licensed dealer, which accepts responsibility for its contents。 UP=Underperform. For definitions, please go to Analyst Industry Views Attractive (A). The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe to be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 1218 months. InLine (I). The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 1218 months. Cautious (C). The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe with caution vs. the relevent broad market benchmark over the next 1218 months. Other Important Disclosures For a discussion, if applicable, of the valuation methods used to determine the price targets included in this summary and the risks related to achieving these targets, please refer to the latest relevant published research on these stocks. Research is available throught your sales representative or on Client Link at and other electronic systems. This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. 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