【正文】 pressures to continue as well. NA Capacity Additions, Despite Flat Sls Outlook Source: Company data amp。 More Is On The Way Every 1% Pt. of Market Share Translates into $ in Profits 853,000 Units of Added Capacity is % of NA Capacity, or $5bn in Pretax Profits NA Pretax Profit Big Three FY03E (in MM) $1,971 Source: Man Stanley Research Estimates Revenue Pressures Worst Since 1970’s 6 % 3 %0%3%6%9%12%M a r 6 8 J a n 7 4 N o v 7 9 S e p 8 5 J u l 9 1 M a y 9 7 M a r 0 37911131517N e w C a r C P IA v g Lt D om S l sNew Car CPI vs. Domestic Light Vehicle Sales Source: CPI amp。 Man Stanley Research 2 . 5 %2 . 0 %1 . 5 %1 . 0 %0 . 5 %0 . 0 %0 . 5 %J a n 0 1 A p r 0 1 J u l 0 1 O c t0 1 J a n 0 2 A p r 0 2 J u l 0 2 O c t0 2 J a n 0 3 A p r 0 3 J u l 0 3 O c t0 3Price Reductions Pressure Manufacturers ? Every 1% Decline in Prices is Worth ? $ at GM ? $850mm at Ford ? $550mm at DCX Source: Man Stanley Research Big Three Market Share Continues to Slide 59%64%69%74%85 CY 88 CY 91 CY 94 CY 97 CY 00 CY 03 CY% % % Every 1% Point of Share is Worth Roughly $1bn in Profit Source: Autodata amp。 Man Stanley Research F Y0 3G a i n e r s % Pts o f Sh r L o s e r s % Pts o f Sh rT o yo t a 0 . 8 % F o rd 0 . 7 %H o n d a 0 . 7 % Mi t s u b i s h i 0 . 5 %N i s s a n 0 . 4 % G e n e ra l Mo t o rs 0 . 4 %H yu n d a i 0 . 2 % C h rys l e r 0 . 3 %Vo l v o 0 . 2 % Vo l ks w a g e n 0 . 2 %Big Three Share of Sales by Segment: FY03 vs. FY02 Source: Autodata amp。 Man Stanley Research $ 0$ 5$ 0$ 5$ 0$ 5$ 01/1/20032/1/20033/1/20034/1/20035/1/20036/1/20037/1/20038/1/20039/1/200310/1/200311/1/200312/1/20031/1/2004U .S. Do l l a r pe r E uroJapanese Yen vs. . Dollar Source: FactSet amp。 S t re n g t h a t 1 0 2 ?p e r U S $165。 S t re n g t h a t 1 0 9 ?p e r U S $Yen to US Dollar Price Sensitivity: YTD 03 Source: Company Data amp。 Man Stanley Research *Man Stanley Estimates Excluding Pension amp。 Man Stanley Research Mo n th l y A v g A m t Mo n th l y L o a n to I m p l Pr i c eA PR Ma tu r i ty F i n a n c e d Pa y m e n t Va l u e o f Ve h i c l eAu g 0 1 6 . 4 1 % 5 7 . 6 8 2 2 , 5 9 1$ ($ 4 5 6 ) 9 1 . 2 6 % 2 4 , 7 5 4$ Se p 0 1 5 . 4 2 % 5 7 . 2 0 2 3 , 0 4 9$ ($ 4 5 8 ) 9 2 . 0 7 % 2 5 , 0 3 4$ Au g 0 2 2 . 1 7 % 5 9 . 4 4 2 6 , 2 0 8$ ($ 4 6 5 ) 9 6 . 2 8 % 2 7 , 2 2 1$ Se p 0 2 2 . 2 9 % 5 8 . 4 0 2 6 , 3 9 6$ ($ 4 7 8 ) 9 6 . 2 5 % 2 7 , 4 2 4$ O ct 0 2 2 . 6 2 % 5 7 . 2 4 2 6 , 2 3 2$ ($ 4 8 8 ) 9 5 . 8 6 % 2 7 , 3 6 5$ N o v 0 2 3 . 4 1 % 5 7 . 1 6 2 6 , 2 6 6$ ($ 4 9 8 ) 9 5 . 2 7 % 2 7 , 5 7 0$ Ap r0 3 2 . 5 1 % 6 0 . 0 6 2 7 , 5 4 0$ ($ 4 8 8 ) 9 7 . 0 0 % 2 8 , 3 9 2$ Ma y0 3 2 . 4 0 % 6 0 . 7 4 2 7 , 9 2 0$ ($ 4 8 9 ) 9 7 . 3 3 % 2 8 , 6 8 6$ Ju n 0 3 2 . 9 3 % 6 2 . 4 3 2 6 , 9 4 5$ ($ 4 6 6 ) 9 6 . 8 2 % 2 7 , 8 3 0$ Ju l 0 3 3 . 2 8 % 6 2 . 6 8 2 6 , 1 2 9$ ($ 4 5 4 ) 9 5 . 1 8 % 2 7 , 4 5 3$ Au g 0 3 3 . 5 6 % 6 3 . 0 0 2 5 , 4 0 7$ ($ 4 4 3 ) 9 3 . 3 8 % 2 7 , 2 0 8$ Se p 0 3 3 . 8 1 % 6 3 . 2 4 2 5 , 6 6 3$ ($ 4 4 9 ) 9 3 . 7 9 % 2 7 , 3 6 2$ O ct 0 3 3 . 9 2 % 6 3 . 5 2 2 6 , 0 6 7$ ($ 4 5 5 ) 9 3 . 5 7 % 2 7 , 8 5 8$ N o v 0 3 3 . 9 3 % 6 2 . 8 6 2 6 , 3 0 6$ ($ 4 6 4 ) 9 3 . 7 2 % 2 8 , 0 6 9$ GMAC / FMCC Borrowing Costs Source: FRB amp。 Man Stanley Research The Big Three: Positives amp。 Man Stanley Research 60. 080. 0100 . 0120 . 0140 . 0160 . 0180 . 01/2/20032/2/20033/2/20034/2/20035/2/20036/2/20037/2/20038/2/20039/2/200310/2/200311/2/200312/2/2003GMFD CXS P XGeneral Motors ? GM still appears to have a variable cost advantage vs. F amp。 Man Stanley Research . Healthcare amp。 Man Stanley Research $1,134 $601 3 0 02007001 , 2 0 01 , 7 0 02 , 2 0 0GM F o r d DCXP e ns i onO P E B$1,159 $814 $889 $740 $1,899 $902 $1074 $185 $88 GM Pension Funded Status: 2020 Update Source: Company Data amp。 In t e r e s t C o s t (6. 0)L a b o r C o n t r a c t (2. 1)200 3 Y T D C o n t r i b ut i o n 14. 4D e c 200 3 C o n t r i b ut i o n 4. 150 b ps L o w e r D i s c o un t R a t e (3. 8)18% A s s e t R e t ur n s 10. 8Y E 200 3 F o r e c as t (0. 4)GM Has Built Inventory in 2020 Source: Autodata amp。 Man Stanley Research P re t a x P ro f i t 2020 2020 2020EG M ( i n U S D mm ) 2 , 8 7 6 2 , 9 6 9 4 , 2 2 9 F ( i n U S D mm ) 1 , 5 3 2 2 , 1 5 3 3 , 1 5 3 D C X ( i n EU R mm ) 578 964 1 , 3 2 8 GM New / Replacement / Redesigned Products Source: Company Data, Ward’s Automotive amp。 Man Stanley Research % % % % F vs. GM Cash Flow Source: Company reports amp。A 5 . 2 4 . 0 1 . 2C a px 4 . 5 5 . 6 1 . 1W / C 0 . 3 1 . 4 1 . 1Ope r a t i ng e x c l ud i ng t i m i ng di f f e r e nc e s 1 . 0 2 . 9 3 . 9A c c ur e d E x p T i m i ng di f f e r e nc e s * 3 . 4 1 . 0 2 . 4T ota l Ope r a t i ng 4 . 4 1 . 9 6 . 3*P e n s i o n amp。 Man Stanley Research (4, 000 )(2, 000 )2, 0004, 0006, 0008, 0001999 2020 2020 2020 2020E 2020EF Geographic Pretax Profit: 3Q03 vs. 3Q02 Source: Company reports amp。 Man Stanley Research B ra n d P ro d u ct I n t ro D a t eF o r d F S e r i e s S e p 0 3F o r d F r e e s t ar O c t 0 3V o l v o S 4 0 s p r i n g 2 0 0 4F o r d F r e e s t y l e 2020F o r d M u s t an g f al l 2 0 0 4F o r d F i v e H u n d r e d l at e 2 0 0 4F o r d F u t u r a 2020F New Product Monitor Source: Autodata amp