【正文】 高 鋮 2011年6月遼寧工業(yè)大學(xué)附 錄Risk and Safety in Civil EngineeringDuring the last decade there has been an increasing societal concern on sustainable developments focusing on the conservation of the environment, the welfare and safety of the individual and at the same time the optimal allocation of the available natural and economical resources of society. This problem plex may easily be realised to be a plex decision problem highly influenced by the possible consequences of our actions and the probabilities that these consequences will occur – the product of which is known as the risk. The continued development of society demands that we are able to manage the prevailing natural and manmade risks in a conscious, consistent and rational manner. According to fundamental principles of decision theory this is a prerequisite for the success of society. Managing risks is a matter of choice on how to allocate the available resources of society. A choice, which cannot be seen in isolation from the qualities on which we base society, . the right to equal opportunities, education, welfare and safety. The question is and should always be – how can the resources of society best be allocated in accordance with these qualities. In this light risk management on behalf of society should be seen as a very serious matter and decision makers at all levels in society thus carry a tremendous responsibility. Risk management concerns the analysis, assessment and decisionmaking in regard to the risks involved in a given activity or associated with a given hazard. The risk management process includes the joint consideration of all uncertainties prevailing the problem and all possible consequences. Several important tasks are lying ahead, not least in the area of civil engineering. As always new civil engineering projects should be planned, designed and executed in a cost optimal manner taking into consideration the benefit of the projects as well as the possible adverse consequences such as loss of lives, damage to the environment and of course the direct safeguarding, maintenance and demissioning of the infrastructure of society will even more likely demand an intensified focus on risks. Not least in the view of the seemingly ongoing and expected climatic changes and the enormous efforts they may initiate to safeguard our existing infrastructure. The methods of risk and reliability analysis in civil engineering, mainly developed during the last three decades, are increasingly gaining importance as decision support tools in civil engineering applications. Their value in connection with the quantification and documentation of risks and the planning of risk reducing and mitigating measures is by now fully appreciated in the civil engineering profession. In the time to e the importance of risk and reliability methods will increase for the civil engineer – a fact reflected by the increasing normative and legislative requirements for the documentationof acceptable risks in the planning and execution of civil engineering activities.Risk and reliability analysis is in fact a multidisciplinary engineering field requiring a solid foundation in one or several classical civil engineering disciplines in addition to a thorough understanding of probability, reliability analysis and decision analysis.Definition of Risk and Detailing of the Risk AnalysisIn daily conversation risk is a rather monly used notion used interchangeably with words like chance, likelihood and probability to indicate that we are uncertain about the state of the activity, item or issue under discussion. Even though we may understand from the context of discussion what is meant by the different words it is necessary in the context of engineering decision making that we are precise in our understanding of risk. As we shall see in a later chapter risk is to be understood as the expected consequences associated with a given activity, the activity being . the construction, operation and demissioning of a power plant.Considering an activity with only one event with potential consequences C .The risk R is thus the probability that this event will occur P multiplied with the consequences given the event occurs .R = P﹒C ()Risk analysis as we shall see might be performed at various levels of detail. Therefore for the purpose of municating the results of a risk analysis it is important that the degree of detailing used for the analysis is indicated at 。離開遼寧工業(yè)大學(xué)，是我學(xué)生生涯的暫時(shí)結(jié)束，也是我新生活的起點(diǎn)。在大學(xué)校園生活中，他們在我需要幫助的時(shí)候給予我無盡的關(guān)懷和幫助，真摯的友誼令我留下了最美好的回憶。還要感謝我的同學(xué)和朋友們。是老師們的諄諄教導(dǎo)、辛勤汗水激發(fā)了我對知識的渴求，在尋求知識的旅途中給我指點(diǎn)方向，讓我堅(jiān)實(shí)地邁出每一步。不僅使我樹立了遠(yuǎn)大的學(xué)習(xí)目標(biāo)，還使我明白了許多待人接物與為人處世的道理。首先要感謝的是老師，在求學(xué)的路上，老師給了我很多的教誨和幫助，畢業(yè)論文的選題、開題、寫作到完成，無不包含了老師對我的悉心指導(dǎo)，導(dǎo)師的耕耘貫穿于論文的始末，反映于論文的字里行間。[ 21 ] 陳建平.《重大工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究 》北京航空航天大學(xué)，2008[ 22 ] 竇連輝,林娟.《工程項(xiàng)目的全面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理科技與管理》，2009[ 23 ] 陳守科,韋灼彬.《建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的發(fā)展方向建筑經(jīng)濟(jì)》，2008[ 24 ] 邱苑華.《現(xiàn)代項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方法與實(shí)踐》科學(xué)出版社，2009[ 25 ] 尹志軍等.《我國工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理進(jìn)展研究》基建優(yōu)化，2009[ 26 ] 張衛(wèi)東.《 工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的現(xiàn)狀及應(yīng)對措施》中國工程咨詢，2009[ 27 ] 郭平.《 論工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理》四川建筑，2008[ 28 ] L Y Shen, Project risk management in Hong Kong, International Journal of Project Management，2008[ 29 ] Willam K. 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