銀行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)原文(參考版)
2025-04-22 01:00本頁面
【正文】 例如，最近在日本和韓國建立金融監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu) ， 允許多的自主權(quán)，注重規(guī)則，而不是自由處理機(jī)構(gòu)問題，在處理國家銀行問題時(shí)，提高信息披露的透明度。 banking problems. 日本，瑞典的監(jiān)管當(dāng)局，以及類似的其他地方，對于加強(qiáng)銀行與金融自由化時(shí)代相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)準(zhǔn)備。Financial liberalization in many countries proceeded without these safeguards. Resources devoted to the supervision of . thrifts, for example, were reduced as the industry was increasingly deregulated in the early 1980s. 很多國家的金融自由的進(jìn)展沒有這些保障，例如，在20世紀(jì)80年代初美國儲蓄機(jī)構(gòu)日益減少對行業(yè)的管制。Early warning systems of impending banking sector problems are not very accurate. Nonetheless, case studies and the empirical evidence point to some policy implications. 早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)與銀行業(yè)來說不是很準(zhǔn)確，然而，案例研究和實(shí)證結(jié)果指出了一些政策的影響。The forecast probability of a problem rises from 2% in 1990 to 13% in 1992, roughly tracking the emergence of serious banking distress in Japan. (The model with contemporaneous variables predicts a 20% probability of banking distress in 1992.) Though 13% may not seem a high probability, it should be seen in light of the magnitude of the event: the sharp rise warns that something is amiss. 對一種危機(jī)的預(yù)測概率從1990年的2%到1992年的13%，大約跟蹤除了銀行危機(jī)在日本的產(chǎn)生（模型顯示20%的預(yù)測概率銀行將在1992年陷入危機(jī)）。s forecasts of the probability of the onset of Japanese banking distress that did in fact emerge in the early 1990s. 事實(shí)上在上個(gè)世紀(jì)90年代早期，日本的一個(gè)模型預(yù)測了日本銀行發(fā)生危機(jī)的可能性。Avoiding banking crises An example of the model39。In other words, banks faced greater market petition at a time when they also were taking on new and unfamiliar risks on both the asset and liability side of balance sheets. The evidence suggests that this is a particularly vulnerable time for banks in managing risk that sends a clear warning signal for financial supervisors. 換句話說,銀行面臨更大的一次市場競爭時(shí)他們還對新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，同時(shí)在采取資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的資產(chǎn)和負(fù)債方。The particular measure of financial liberalization in Hutchison and McDill is the deregulation of interest rates. In many economies, this era usually heralded liberalization not only in the pricing of financial assets, but also in the types of assets allowed and the development of more open and petitive financial markets. 在哈奇森和麥克迪爾看來，金融自由化的具體措施是放寬利率。Institutional features Institutional features were important in identifying those countries more likely to run into banking problems at some point. 制度特色在識別那些可能在某一時(shí)刻步入銀行危機(jī)的國家是重要的， Because institutional features, such as the regulatory and supervisory structures, deposit insurance, financial liberalization, and so on, do not change much over time, including these variables mainly serves to pick up crosscountry differences in institutional structures that may lead to a higher probability of banking problems.制度特征,例如管理和監(jiān)管結(jié)構(gòu)、存款保險(xiǎn),金融自由化,等等，不會(huì)隨著時(shí)間的推移而發(fā)生很大的變化，包括那些主要服務(wù)于收集不同制度的國家的變量，這些變量導(dǎo)致銀行陷入危機(jī)的概率更高。Various permutations of the HutchisonMcDill studysuch as data transformations, lead and lag checks, and so onhold up the basic result: it is very difficult to find any macro variable that is a reliable predictor of the onset of future banking sector distress. 哈奇森和麥克迪爾研究的置換研究，比如數(shù)據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)換，提前和滯后檢查等等，支撐了一個(gè)基本結(jié)果：很難發(fā)現(xiàn)任何宏觀變量都能作為銀行發(fā)生危機(jī)的晴雨表。 Another surprise is that macroeconomic variables are not very reliable predictors of the onset of banking sector distress, even though recessions and falling asset prices occur simultaneously with the onset of banking sector distress. This finding contrasts with two other studies that seem to find stronger evidence of a leading indicator relationship. 另一個(gè)出人意料的情況是，即使經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退和資產(chǎn)價(jià)格下跌與銀行業(yè)危機(jī)同時(shí)爆發(fā)，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量也不是銀行部門危機(jī)爆發(fā)非常可靠的預(yù)測指標(biāo)。但是在許多情況下，貶值的貨幣并沒有導(dǎo)致銀行危機(jī)。例如，通過簡單的計(jì)算我們可以看到，匯率大幅貶值在加劇或帶來199
公司管理相關(guān)推薦
鄂ICP備17016276號-1