【正文】
1,t, then set up the ECM of FIEs export: Let n=4 and use the OLS method to estimate the function, then follow from general to specific methods to get the final results (see Tab. 2). Table 2 shows that △ ln X is positively affected by its lagged change. The change of Open, FDI and reer will affect △ ln X positively, the impact of lagged △ ln Y on △ ln X is ambiguous. The lagged change of RMB exchange rate volatility shows the negative coefficient, even not prominent in statistics. ( 3) Testing the relationship volatility and FIEs import between exchange rate Similarly, I use the EngleGranger method to find out the longrun cointegration relationship between exchange rate volatility and FIEs import. Because of the variable of Open and FDI are not prominent in statistics, so I eliminate these two variables in the analysis. The cointegration vector includes M ,Y ,reer V . The estimated result is as follows. Tstatistics are in parentheses. The residual of equation is proved to be stationary series tested by the ADF test, which means the variables has a longrun cointegration relationship. Equation (11) indicates that Chinese FIEs import is pulled by Chinese GDP. The fast development of China means the improved production level and more market opportunities in China, which inducing more import. The appreciation of RMB would have negative effect on Chinese FIEs import, which reflects the RMB appreciation will affect their final profits of many exportoriented FIEs. The asymmetric volatility of RMB exchange rate impacts FIEs import negatively and more severely than FIEs export. It could be still explained by the facts of prevalent processing trade pattern of FIEs and the imbalance of Chinese inner and external economy. The demand of China is insufficient, so the output rely on the world market. So they are irresponsive to the change of profit to some degree. Then I investigate the shortrun relationship based on the cointegration theory between the variables. Let ecm2,t = ine and inflow FDI. The openness degree of China can impact FIEs export positively. On the other hand, the appreciation of RMB impacts FIEs export negatively. The result prove that FDI and FIEs has tight and positive relationship, which means that large share of inflow FDI in China is exportoriented. Rodrik (2021) argues the FIEs utilize the low cost workforce, land and other benefits Chinese government offers and treat China as the processing and export base of their industrial chain. But the destination of FIEs goods is mainly US or Europe, whose national ine increase can boost China39。Yf is Chinese main trading partners39。 M is the real quarterly import amount of Chinese FIEs, deflated by the price index for Chinese import (2021=100), multiplied by RMB nominal exchange rate against dollar。并且, 我國應 采取措施改變貿(mào)易格局, 采用 更合理的方法來減少貿(mào)易盈余。 本文沒有對 協(xié)整研究變量之間的關系 進行分析 。我國的匯率 水平對外商投資企業(yè)出口在短期內(nèi)存在著積極影響,并且已經(jīng)對外商投資企業(yè)進口產(chǎn)生作用。外商投資企業(yè)加工貿(mào)易的依賴于進口材料和重要 零部件加工模式,然后處理它們在海外銷售的最終市場。人民幣升值對外商投資企業(yè)出口的影響比進口更為嚴重。然后,本文采用恩 格爾,格蘭杰方法來探討匯率波動和外商投資企業(yè)之間進出口的長期和短期關系。 三、 結論 本文估計了人民幣匯率的不對稱 性對 外商投資企業(yè)出口和進口匯率波動的影響。人民幣匯率波動其滯后性 表明它會給外商投資企業(yè)進口在短期內(nèi)帶來積極變化。 表 3 指出 △