經(jīng)貿(mào)專業(yè)外文翻譯---人民幣匯率傳遞的不對(duì)稱性對(duì)外商直接投資進(jìn)出口業(yè)務(wù)的影響-其他專業(yè)-展示頁
2025-01-31 02:59本頁面
【正文】 后影響是模糊的。 （ 3）分析人民幣匯率變動(dòng)與外商投資企業(yè)進(jìn)口之間的關(guān)系 同樣，我用恩格爾，格蘭杰方法來分析匯率的波動(dòng)和外商投資企業(yè)進(jìn)口的長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系協(xié)整性。變量有M, Y, V ， 估計(jì)結(jié)果如下 。 方程（ 11）表明，中國(guó)外商投資企業(yè)的進(jìn)口是由中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的拉動(dòng)的。人民幣升值會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)的外商投資企業(yè)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)生消極影響，它反映了人民幣升值將影響許多出口導(dǎo)向型外商投資企業(yè)其最終利潤(rùn)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。 也就意味著 ，外商投資企業(yè)加工貿(mào)易模式與我國(guó)內(nèi)部和外部經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的事實(shí)仍然普遍存在。所以，他們對(duì)于一定程度的利潤(rùn)轉(zhuǎn)化無動(dòng)于衷。 令 ecm2,t = 令 n=4，并使用 OLS 法估計(jì)函數(shù)，然后從一般遵循的方法得到最終結(jié)果（見表 3）。我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的變化將積極影響 △ ln M，而實(shí)際有效匯率 的 滯后影響是不確定的。 這與對(duì)外商投資企業(yè)出口的負(fù)面影響不同。衡量人民 幣實(shí)際有效匯率指數(shù)波動(dòng)性的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是運(yùn)用 TARCH 模型得出條件方差。 從長(zhǎng)期 來看，人民幣匯率的匯率水平對(duì)外商投資企業(yè)出口和進(jìn)口都會(huì)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。其原因可能與盛行的中國(guó)外商投 資企業(yè)加工貿(mào)易形勢(shì)有關(guān)。 從 短期來看，匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)外商投資企業(yè)出口產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響，除了對(duì)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)生積極影 響。 此外，外國(guó)直接投資和外商投資企業(yè)出口促進(jìn)了長(zhǎng)期和短期開放發(fā)展的作用。 總之，我國(guó)政府可能會(huì)逐漸減緩對(duì)擴(kuò)大人民幣匯率每日波 動(dòng)幅度，避免誘使陷 入高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體系。 The Analysis of RMB Real Exchange Rate Asymmetric Volatility Impact on ForeignInvested Enterprises Export and Import in China2 1 Introduction Since Chinese government launched the RMB exchange rate forming mechanism reform in July, 2021,the RMB against dollar appreciates about 5% until now, and the flexibility of RMB is gradually enlarged. At the same time, China witnesses the surplus of current account and capital account, the socalled double surplus. Under this circumstance, some economists advise the government to enlarge the daily range of RMB exchange rate fluctuation and quicken the pace of RMB appreciation. On the other hand, some scholars argued that enlarging the RMB daily floating range will make RMB appreciate so rapidly under the prevalent expectation of appreciation that it will impact negatively Chinese export, employment and social stability finally. As the key issue on choosing the best suitable exchange rate system to boost the development, many economists study how the exchange rate volatility impact trade theoretically and empirically, with different theoretical models and empirical conclusions. Cushman(1983) argues that riskverse trader would low their trading volumes facing with the exchange rate risk. Doroodian (1999) and Krugman (1989) emphasized exchange rate risk is detrimental to trade especially when the traders can not be accessible to the hedging tools or the hedging cost is too high . On the other hand, some scholars, such as Sercu and Vanhulle (1992), Dellas and Zillberfarb (1993) suggest exchange rate volatility may stimulate trade flows based on the hypothesis that the trade contract could be treated as an option, which means more risk can induce more profit. Cote (1994) concludes that the empirical literature can not give explicit relationship of exchange rate volatility and trade volumes. For the past several years the RMB is a hot issue because of the trade surplus and vast reserves, many scholars illustrate the effects of the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate on trade volumes, employment and growth in China, but a few relating to the RMB exchange rate volatility. Chou (2021) give the conclusion RMB exchange rate volatility has negative impact on trade. Li and Voon (2021) analyze the exchange rate misalignment and volatility impact on different sector export of manufacturing industry. By focusing on the behavior of Foreig
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