經(jīng)貿(mào)專業(yè)外文翻譯---人民幣匯率傳遞的不對稱性對外商直接投資進(jìn)出口業(yè)務(wù)的影響-其他專業(yè)-閱讀頁
2025-02-08 02:59本頁面
【正文】 mpacts FIEs export negatively, which proves that even FIEs might have more advantages and experience to deal with the exchange rate risk, the risk of RMB will make their change their trade amount. Another cause of negative impact by the RMB risk on export flow is through the channel of RMB risk on FDI. After the longrun relationship is established, I further find out the shortrun relationship based on the cointegration theory and ErrorCorrection Model (ECM). Let ecm1,t = 219。 2,t, then set up the ErrorCorrection model of FIEs import: Let n=4 and use the OLS method to estimate the function, then follow from general to specific methods toget the final results (see Tab. 3). Tab. 3 shows that △ l n M is negatively affected by its lagged change. The change of Chinese GDP will affect A in M positively, the impact of lagged △ l n reer on △ l n M is ambiguous. The lagged change of RMB exchange rate volatility has the positive coefficient, indicating it will impact FIEs import positively in short run., which is different with the negative effect on FIEs export. 三 . Conclusion This paper estimates the impact of asymmetric RMB exchange rate volatility on the FIEs export and import. The volatility is measured by the conditional variance of RMB real effective exchange rate index from a TARCH model. Then, this paper uses the EngleGranger methods to investigate the longrun and shortrun relationship between exchange rate volatility and FIEs export and import. The empirical analysis finds out that the volatility of RMB exchange rate will impact FIEs export and import negatively in the longrun, which means exchange rate risk has negative effects on FIEs trading volumes. However, the exchange rate volatility impacts FIEs import more than on FIEs export, so it is reasonable to enlarge the flexibility to solve the trade surplus incurred by the FIEs. But imagine how RMB exchange rate volatility would affect the nonFIEs, Chinese government should be very cautious to handle this tool. In the long run, the level of RMB exchange rate impacts negatively on FIEs export and import too. The appreciation of RMB impacts FIEs export more severely than on FIEs import. The causes could be related to the prevalent processing trade pattern of Chinese FIEs. The FIEs processing trade is depending on the mode of importing materials and key processing parts, then processing them to sell in overseas final markets. In short run, exchange rate volatility impacts FIEs export negatively, but impacts FIEs import positively. The level of exchange rate impacts positively FIEs export positively in shortrun, and has ambiguous effect on FIEs import. Besides, the FDI and openness promote FIEs export prominently in longrun and shortrun. But this paper can not find cointegration relationship among the studied variables. In conclusion, the Chinese government might enlarge the daily floating range of RMB exchange rate gradually and slowly, avoiding inducing too much risk into the economic system. And taking measures to change the trade pattern could be more reasonable method to lessen trade surplus.
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