【正文】 0$300 $ 5 5 0 $150N e t i n c o m e 9 0 0 D M $700 $150 $550 $360D i v i d e n d s 0 D M $0 $0 $0 $0Ad d i t i o n t o Re t a i n e d Ea r n i n g s 9 0 0 D M $700 $150 $550 $360F o r e i g n e x c h a n g e g a i n (l o s s )Translate at DM3 = $1 Translate at average exchange rate, = $1 41 How Various Translation Methods Deal with a Change from DM3 to DM2 = $1 I n c o m e S t a t e m e n tL o c a l Cu r r e n c yCu r r e n t / N o n c u r r e n t M o n e t a r y / N o n m o n e t a r yT e m p o r a l Cu r r e n t Ra t eS a l e s 1 0 , 0 0 0 D M $ 4 , 0 0 0 $ 4 , 0 0 0 $ 4 , 0 0 0 $ 4 , 0 0 0CO G S 7 , 5 0 0 D M $ 3 , 0 0 0 $ 2 , 5 0 0 $ 3 , 0 0 0 $ 3 , 0 0 0D e p r e c i a t i o n 1 , 0 0 0 D M $333 $333 $333 $400N e t o p e r a t i n g i n c o m e 1 , 5 0 0 D M $667 $ 1 , 1 6 7 $667 $600I n c o m e t a x (4 0 % ) 6 0 0 D M $267 $467 $267 $240P r o fi t a ft e r t a x 9 0 0 D M $400 $700 $400 $360$300 $ 5 5 0 $150N e t i n c o m e 9 0 0 D M $700 $150 $550 $360D i v i d e n d s 0 D M $0 $0 $0 $0Ad d i t i o n t o Re t a i n e d Ea r n i n g s 9 0 0 D M $700 $150 $550 $360F o r e i g n e x c h a n g e g a i n (l o s s )Note the effect on aftertax profit. 42 How Various Translation Methods Deal with a Change from DM3 to DM2 = $1 I n c o m e S t a t e m e n tL o c a l Cu r r e n c yCu r r e n t / N o n c u r r e n t M o n e t a r y / N o n m o n e t a r yT e m p o r a l Cu r r e n t Ra t eS a l e s 1 0 , 0 0 0 D M $ 4 , 0 0 0 $ 4 , 0 0 0 $ 4 , 0 0 0 $ 4 , 0 0 0CO G S 7 , 5 0 0 D M $ 3 , 0 0 0 $ 2 , 5 0 0 $ 3 , 0 0 0 $ 3 , 0 0 0D e p r e c i a t i o n 1 , 0 0 0 D M $333 $333 $333 $400N e t o p e r a t i n g i n c o m e 1 , 5 0 0 D M $667 $ 1 , 1 6 7 $667 $600I n c o m e t a x (4 0 % ) 6 0 0 D M $267 $467 $267 $240P r o fi t a ft e r t a x 9 0 0 D M $400 $700 $400 $360$300 $ 5 5 0 $150N e t i n c o m e 9 0 0 D M $700 $150 $550 $360D i v i d e n d s 0 D M $0 $0 $0 $0Ad d i t i o n t o Re t a i n e d Ea r n i n g s 9 0 0 D M $700 $150 $550 $360F o r e i g n e x c h a n g e g a i n (l o s s )Note the effect that foreign exchange gains (losses) has on ine. 43 會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其管理 ? Hedging Translation Exposure – If the managers of the firm wish to manage their accounting numbers as well as their business, they have two methods for dealing with translation exposure. – Balance Sheet Hedge ? Balance Sheet Hedge Eliminates the mismatch between assets and liabilities denominated in the same currency. ? May create transaction exposure, however. – Derivatives Hedge ? An example would be the use of forward contracts with a maturity of the reporting period to attempt to manage the accounting numbers. ? Using a derivatives hedge to control translation exposure really involves speculation about foreign exchange rate changes, however. 44 會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其管理 ? Empirical Analysis of the Change from FASB 8 to FASB 52 – There did not appear to be a revaluation of firms’ values following the change. – This suggests that market participants do not react to cosmetic earnings changes. – Other researchers have found similar results when investigating other accounting changes. – This highlights the futility of attempting to manage translation gains and losses. 45 會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其管理 ? 會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是否需要企業(yè)投入過(guò)多精力加以管理 ？ – Companies should focus on the economic effects of currency changes rather than the accounting effects. – 分支機(jī)構(gòu)收益在很多情況下不須實(shí)際兌成母國(guó)貨幣，而是被保留在當(dāng)?shù)赜米髟偻顿Y，因此，較弱的當(dāng)?shù)刎泿挪粫?huì)影響分支機(jī)構(gòu)的經(jīng)營(yíng)，也就并不存在嚴(yán)重的、實(shí)質(zhì)意義上的外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn) – 過(guò)分關(guān)注會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的管理會(huì)對(duì)公司的正常經(jīng)營(yíng)造成負(fù)面影響 – 過(guò)分關(guān)注會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的管理會(huì)導(dǎo)致對(duì)更為重要的、導(dǎo)致未來(lái)現(xiàn)金流量變化的匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響視而不見(jiàn) – 會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)本身不影響企業(yè)現(xiàn)金流量，但是會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的保值措施卻會(huì)影響企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金流量，尤其是當(dāng)匯率朝向與企業(yè)預(yù)期相反的方向變化時(shí)，保值措施帶來(lái)的損失卻會(huì)帶來(lái)企業(yè)真正的現(xiàn)金流出 – 只要保持充分、徹底、和完全的披露，不同折算方法的選擇并不會(huì)對(duì)公司的市場(chǎng)價(jià)值（股票價(jià)格）造成影響。在 有效 的資本市場(chǎng)上，投資者可以對(duì)匯兌損益進(jìn)行適當(dāng)?shù)脑u(píng)價(jià)。 ? Empirical evidence indicates that investors can distinguish between accounting gimmickry and economic reality. 46 交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其管理 ? 交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)示例 – 國(guó)際貿(mào)易信用買賣中的交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn) – 外匯借款和投資中的交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn) – 外匯買賣風(fēng)險(xiǎn) – 遠(yuǎn)期外匯交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn) – 公司對(duì)海外分支機(jī)構(gòu)的投資、利潤(rùn)匯回、和資本撤回的風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 47 交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其管理 ? 交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)衡量 – A multinational firm should not consider deals in isolation, but should focus on hedging the firm as a portfolio of currency positions. ? As an example, consider a multinational with Korean won receivables and Japanese yen payables. Since the won and the yen tend to move in similar directions against the . dollar, the firm can just wait until these accounts e due and just buy yen with won. ? Even if it’s not a perfect hedge, it may be too expensive or impractical to hedge each currency separately. 48 交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其管理 ? 交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)衡量 – 單從一項(xiàng)交易的角度來(lái)衡量交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是比較容易的，但實(shí)際工作中，企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)管理者需要站在整個(gè)企業(yè)的角度來(lái)考慮全部交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的凈影響結(jié)果 – 交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)還應(yīng)該考慮不同外幣之間的相關(guān)性問(wèn)題 49 交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其管理 ? 交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)衡量 – 一種外幣的交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)取決于兩個(gè)因素：貨幣暴露凈頭寸（敞口）的大小和匯率波動(dòng)的幅度 ? 單個(gè)企業(yè)所承擔(dān)的外匯交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并不是所有業(yè)務(wù)產(chǎn)生交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的總和 ? 只有時(shí)間上匹配的現(xiàn)金流量才能相抵 ? 企業(yè)可以根據(jù)一些歷史數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)評(píng)估一種外幣可能的波動(dòng)幅度，如標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差 50 交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其管理 ? 交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)衡量 – 測(cè)算所有子公司的外匯敞口并加以合并，得到公司范圍的預(yù)期外匯凈流量 – 估計(jì)預(yù)期匯率變動(dòng)幅度內(nèi)外匯凈流量的本幣幣值變化范圍 – 分析匯率變動(dòng)的相關(guān)性 – 綜合分析公司的總體交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ? Transaction exposure can be managed by entering into offsetting foreign currency transactions. 51 交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其管理 ? 交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理工具 – Forward Market Hedge ? In a forward market hedge, any exchange gain or loss on the forward contract will be offset by a corresponding exchange loss or gain on the underlying transaction. ? If you are going to owe foreign currency in the future, agree to buy the foreign currency now by entering into long position in a forward contract. – An Example: You are a . importer of British woolens and have just ordered next year’s inventory. Payment of 163。100M is due in one year. How can you fix the cash outflow in dollars? – Answer: One way is to put yourself in a position that delivers 163。100M in one year—a long forward contract on the pound. ? If you ar