【正文】 sorb all the glitches. 這里的假設(shè)是：我們?cè)谟?jì)劃時(shí)所做的安全保護(hù)，還不足以吸收所有的問(wèn)題。There are some glitches which are so big that we haven’t put enough safety for them. 有些問(wèn)題實(shí)在太嚴(yán)重，我們當(dāng)時(shí)預(yù)留的安全保護(hù)仍不足以應(yīng)付。Not because we were not aware that such glitches can happen, but because they didn’t allow us to put so much safety. Correct? 不是因?yàn)槲覀冎安恢肋@些問(wèn)題會(huì)發(fā)生，而是因?yàn)樗麄儾蛔屛覀冾A(yù)留這么多的安全保護(hù)，對(duì)不對(duì)？Now I want to highlight the fact that maybe even though everybody in the world that is involved with the projects believes fullheartedly that this is right, maybe nevertheless, this is wrong. 現(xiàn)在我想要強(qiáng)調(diào)的事實(shí)是：即使全世界與項(xiàng)目有關(guān)的人都深信不疑的事，也可能是錯(cuò)的。Maybe the safety that we currently put into projects everywhere, in every subject, every project in the world. The safeties are so huge that there is no problem, but the way we are managing the projects cause all these enormous safeties to be wasted.也許目前全世界每種主題的項(xiàng)目都有相當(dāng)多的安全保護(hù)，所以不會(huì)產(chǎn)生問(wèn)題，但是由于我們管理項(xiàng)目的方式，卻造成這些充裕的安全保護(hù)被浪費(fèi)掉。Now this is really daring statement, I know. 我知道這句話很嚇人。But you know why I was starting to think about it? 但是你知道我為什么會(huì)開(kāi)始這么想嗎？Because from my experience you know which projects take forever and don’t finish? 因?yàn)楦鶕?jù)我的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，你知道哪些項(xiàng)目會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法完成嗎？The projects that you don’t have a deadline. 那些沒(méi)有到期日的專案。Have you noticed it? 你是否注意到這一點(diǎn)？You have so much safety and no problems. 你有相當(dāng)多的安全時(shí)間，不會(huì)有問(wèn)題。Somehow you have so much safety and you don’t finish. Am I right? 但是正因?yàn)槟阌泻芏嗟陌踩珪r(shí)間，所以才無(wú)法完成，我說(shuō)得對(duì)嗎？Do you have it from your experience? 你是否曾有這樣的經(jīng)驗(yàn)？So something is wrong there. 所以一定有件事情錯(cuò)了。Something conceptually is wrong. 一定有某種概念錯(cuò)了。And we don’t have to go far to find it. 我們不必大老遠(yuǎn)去找。If you recall the last session we found, or at least we say that we found what is the basic assumption of management in every function which was wrong? 請(qǐng)你回想一下，在上一講我們找到了每項(xiàng)管理功能背后隱藏的錯(cuò)誤基本假設(shè)。Do you remember what was this? 你還記得是什么嗎？We tend to judge actions and decisions not according to the impact on the whole picture even though that is what we want to do, we tend to judge it according to the local impact. 我們?cè)谠u(píng)估行為和決策時(shí)，是根據(jù)它們對(duì)局部的影響，而不是對(duì)整體的影響。In other words we assume that the local appearance is the way to get the global good impact. 換句話說(shuō)，我們假設(shè)局部的現(xiàn)象，就能讓我們了解對(duì)整體的影響。If that is the case, and if that is the problem for management in all aspects it must be the problem also in projects. 若真是如此，這個(gè)大家所碰到的管理問(wèn)題，必定也會(huì)出現(xiàn)在項(xiàng)目上。Do we have such a thing that we are trying to get good local performance under the assumption that if we get good local performance in projects that is the way to get the good global performance. 如果我們假設(shè)項(xiàng)目的局部績(jī)效好，整體績(jī)效就會(huì)好，是不是就會(huì)想讓局部的表現(xiàn)更好呢？I think there is something like that. 我覺(jué)得有這個(gè)可能。Lets go and look into it in a little bit more in depth. 我們?cè)龠M(jìn)一步深入探討。Again. What was the current mode of operation? 再說(shuō)一次，目前的作業(yè)模式是什么？The way to improve the performance of the organization is by inducing local improvements everywhere. 藉由到處的局部改善，進(jìn)而提升組織整體的績(jī)效。Do you remember it? 你還記得嗎？What is the translation to the project? 對(duì)項(xiàng)目來(lái)說(shuō)，這代表什么意思？Do we do something like that specifically in projects? 我們?cè)陧?xiàng)目中是否也做同樣的事情？What is the global thing in a project? 在一個(gè)項(xiàng)目里面，什么是整體？We want to deliver the project as a whole on time. 我們希望準(zhǔn)時(shí)完成整個(gè)項(xiàng)目。Definitely that is what we want. 這絕對(duì)是我們想要的。How do we do it? 我們?cè)撛趺醋觯縄f I am not mistaken we are doing it by trying to make sure that each task will be finished on time. 如果我沒(méi)弄錯(cuò)的話，為了如期完成整個(gè)項(xiàng)目，我們會(huì)去確認(rèn)每項(xiàng)任務(wù)都能準(zhǔn)時(shí)完成。Am I right?我說(shuō)得對(duì)不對(duì)？Because what we say, if each task will finish on time then the whole project will finish on time. 因?yàn)槲覀兪窃趺凑f(shuō)的：如果每項(xiàng)任務(wù)都能準(zhǔn)時(shí)完成，那么整個(gè)項(xiàng)目就會(huì)準(zhǔn)時(shí)完成。And that is correct. 這是正確的。But we assume that that is the best way to reach the whole project on time, that the way to get the global performance that we want is through concentrating on getting the local performance. 但是我們假設(shè)這是讓整個(gè)項(xiàng)目準(zhǔn)時(shí)完成最好的方法，假設(shè)把重心放在局部績(jī)效就能得到整體績(jī)效。Now, we have seen already what mistakes are ing out of it. 現(xiàn)在，我們已經(jīng)知道了這種假設(shè)會(huì)造成什么錯(cuò)誤。Lets now see what is ing in project management because of it. 我們看一下，這個(gè)假設(shè)會(huì)對(duì)項(xiàng)目管理產(chǎn)生什么影響？I claim that this tendency of making sure that each task will finish on time and this management style of ‘lets put attention on that, by that we will make sure that the project is finished on time’, is almost guaranteeing that the project will not finish on time. 我認(rèn)為，確認(rèn)每項(xiàng)任務(wù)會(huì)準(zhǔn)時(shí)完成的心態(tài)，和「只要把注意力放在每項(xiàng)任務(wù)，整個(gè)項(xiàng)目就會(huì)如期完成」的管理風(fēng)格，幾乎等于保證這個(gè)項(xiàng)目不會(huì)準(zhǔn)時(shí)完成。Why is it? 為什么呢？Because we are here in a position which is even worse than to give a cat to guard the milk. 因?yàn)槲覀兊奶幘成踔帘冉幸恢回埲タ词嘏Ｄ踢€糟。You have to finish your task on time. Fine? 你必須準(zhǔn)時(shí)完成任務(wù)。好嗎？And you know that I am your boss and I will pay attention to it. 你知道我是你的老板，而且我會(huì)密切注意這一點(diǎn)。Who is the one who estimated how much time it should take you? 誰(shuí)能夠估計(jì)你總共要花多少時(shí)間？You yourself. How lovely. 你自己。 太美妙了！Now we are not dealing with puters, we are dealing with human beings. 現(xiàn)在我們是在跟人打交道，不是計(jì)算機(jī)。So, how much time it will take you? 所以，你要花多少時(shí)間？And you know that after that if you don’t meet it I will be all over you. 你知道，如果沒(méi)有在這個(gè)時(shí)間內(nèi)完成，我就會(huì)特別來(lái)關(guān)照你。Will it cause some impact on your estimation? 這對(duì)你的估計(jì)時(shí)間會(huì)不會(huì)產(chǎn)生一些影響？It could be, yes. Lets look on it again. 有可能。讓我們?cè)倏匆淮巍ets look on it much, much deeper. 我們?cè)俑钊胩接?。Look what is happening. 看看發(fā)生什么事。We are not talking about deterministic numbers here. 我們?cè)谶@里討論的不是確切的數(shù)字。We are talking about what time estimations. 我們討論的是什么？估計(jì)時(shí)間。What is the meaning of time estimation, which means there is no deterministic number this always takes 5days point 3. 估計(jì)時(shí)間代表什么意思？代表不確定的數(shù)字。It is about. Which means we are in the roam of statistical guesses. 只是大概的數(shù)字。也就是說(shuō)，我們根據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字來(lái)推測(cè)。Unfortunately, here starts the problem. 不幸地，問(wèn)題就由此而生。Look, statistical guesses. 你看，從統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字來(lái)推測(cè)。Whenever we are talking about statistics the things that immediately appear in mind is this beautiful bell shape. 只要我們一談到統(tǒng)計(jì)，腦海中立刻浮現(xiàn)出這個(gè)漂亮的鐘型常態(tài)分配圖。Everybody knows this bell shape, that is the statistics. 每個(gè)人都知道常態(tài)分配圖，這就是統(tǒng)計(jì)。So there is so much chance that it wil