【正文】 大，雖然每個真正的紐約人都盼著過一個白色的圣誕，可還在第五大道購物的人們卻行色匆匆，他們不但要在最后一刻前挑選到心儀的圣誕禮物，還要避開嚴寒，回家和親人們共度圣誕夜。 喬希 ? 萊斯特拐進了第四十六街。 他還沒來得及享受圣誕的氣氛，因為他仍在工作著，雖說是要在喬安妮餐廳吃一頓工作餐。 喬希是黑人，三十出頭，長得平易近人，穿著時髦得體，卻不華貴。 他來自弗吉尼亞州北部，父母都是辛勤工作的人，或許只有回到父母家里才最讓他感到幸福。 單從他的行為舉止，別人看不出他擁有一個哈佛法學院的學位，一段在華盛頓特區(qū)跟從國會議員實習的經(jīng)歷，還有紐約一家律師事務(wù)所初級合伙人的身份。他才華橫溢，思維敏捷，聰明過人。 這次會面意味著喬希要過了圣誕夜才能回家了。 他并沒有因此而不高興，因為他要見的人是康涅狄格州的資深參議員喬 ? 羅杰斯，此人是全美曝光率最高的名人之一。 參議員羅杰斯是民主黨人，現(xiàn)在是她的第三個任期，對于國會山的一切她了如指掌，盡管如此，她還是盡力維持住了在她的支持者心中作為一位華盛頓局外人的信譽。 她支持墮胎，反對腐敗，支持減少二氧化碳排量，反對死刑，可以說是大西洋的這一邊能找到的最完美的進步自由派人士。 脫口秀主持人們稱呼她“誠實的參議員喬”，幾年前《時代周刊》提名她參加年度女性的角逐。 明年就是選舉年了，有消息稱她將參加民主黨內(nèi)總統(tǒng)提名的競選。 羅杰斯在華盛頓見過喬希，她覺得喬希很有才干，于是就邀他共進晚餐。 喬希打了個冷戰(zhàn)，他打開手里的紙條核對了一下地址。 之前他沒來過喬安妮餐廳，但對于它的鼎鼎大名卻早有耳聞，倒不是因為這里的飯菜有多美味，其實這里的菜品屢遭惡評，也不是因為這里的爵士管弦樂隊有一位知名電影導演客串吹小號，而是因為這里匯集了有頭有臉的賓客，可以說是星光璀璨，他們中有政客、外交家、電影明星、載入名人堂的體育明星、記者、作家、搖滾明星、諾貝爾獎得主等等——總之，這里的每一位客人都是這座權(quán)力之城里的一個人物。 餐廳里面人頭攢動。 喬希走進來時前臺的領(lǐng)班一直盯著他看。 “您需要幫忙嗎？” 喬希回答說：“是的，我有一個……” “對不起，先生……”看見有兩位客人走了進來，領(lǐng)班打斷了他的話。 “晚上好，巴考爾小姐，晚上好，漢克斯先生。”接著他打了個響指招呼服務(wù)生帶他們?nèi)胱?“好吧，先生，請問您預定座位了嗎？”領(lǐng)班聳了聳肩，說道，“您也看見了，我們沒有空余的座位?！? “我今天晚上要在這兒和一位名叫羅杰斯的女士會面?！?領(lǐng)班把喬希從頭到腳打量了一番，然后說“請問您怎么稱呼？” 喬希向他報了姓名，雖然領(lǐng)班好不容易才忍住沒撇嘴，但他還是鼓了鼓鼻翼，顯示出了他的不屑以及自然而然的優(yōu)越感。 “讓我想想?！鳖I(lǐng)班說道。 “哦，對了，我們的確為一位羅杰斯女士預留了一張桌子，可是她馬上就到嗎？” 喬希過去也有過被人懷疑的經(jīng)歷，但他沒有被嚇到。 “我肯定她很快就到。 能煩請你帶我去她的座位嗎？”喬希說。 “那這邊走，先生?！?領(lǐng)班把喬希領(lǐng)到餐廳靠里處，指了指一張桌子。 “謝謝，請給我來一杯馬丁尼，”喬希說。 可那位領(lǐng)班還沒等他說完就迫不及待地要回到紐約上層社會那令人陶醉的紛亂中去，至少在他看來，那里的每一個人都在召喚著他，希望得到他的注意。 這張桌子離衛(wèi)生間很近，還緊挨著一扇半開的窗戶，好像從五大湖刮來的刺骨寒風正好沿著哈得孫峽谷吹進來，在這兒結(jié)束了它的旅程。 突然間，餐廳安靜了片刻，緊接著又響起了一陣熱烈的竊竊語聲。 “羅杰斯參議員！”領(lǐng)班喊道，“能在喬安妮再次見到您真是太榮幸了！” “晚上好，阿爾貝托。 我要和一位年青人吃飯，他叫萊斯特。” 領(lǐng)班慌得直眨眼，還咽了咽口水。 “好的，參議員，您這邊走?！?當羅杰斯參議員穿過擁擠的餐廳時，不斷有人回過頭來，他們認出了她，并默默地跟她打招呼。 在一個不分階級的社會里，羅杰斯可以說是離美國的統(tǒng)治階級最近的人了。 阿爾貝托在周圍轉(zhuǎn)了一陣子，然后走過去和一位同事說了幾句話。 “很高興又見到你，喬希，”羅杰斯說。 “我們先吃點東西，然后我要跟你談?wù)勔环萆虡I(yè)提案的事?！? 阿爾貝托回到餐桌旁，深深地彎下腰，那謙卑的樣子簡直有點可笑。 “參議員，這張桌子太冷了，坐著不舒服，不知道……” 羅杰斯參議員等著他把話說完，她輕聲地說道，“請接著說?！? “不知道您愿不愿意換張好點兒的桌子，到餐廳中央去，這樣您就能看到餐廳里的每一個人了?！?這樣餐廳里的每一個人都可以看見您啦，他本是想這么說的。 “那樣您會覺得舒服得多，而且……” 阿爾貝托停了下來。 羅杰斯參議員看了看四周。 “我同意，這兒不是屋子里最好的座位，但既然你把我的朋友帶到了這兒，我想我們就呆在這里好了，上我平時點的菜吧?！? 兩個小時后，羅杰斯和喬希起身準備離開，這又引起店員們的一陣騷動，個個都主動來獻殷勤，其中就包括阿爾貝托，他提出來要給他倆免單，但被羅杰斯拒絕了。 他倆披上外套，羅杰斯說，“阿爾貝托，謝謝你。 噢，我給你介紹我的同事喬希 ? 萊斯特了嗎？” 阿爾貝托的臉上先是一陣驚恐，然后又閃過絕望中的一絲企盼。 “啊，還沒有，不，……還沒正式介紹過?！彼吐曄職獾卣f。 “喬希 ? 萊斯特。 他是我剛剛招收的競選班子成員。 他馬上就要成為我競選團隊的副經(jīng)理了，將負責募集捐款。 如果明年我們把那位共和黨人趕出白宮的話，你現(xiàn)在看到的就是我的白宮辦公廳主任?！? “非常高興見到您，萊斯特先生，非常榮幸，真的。 我衷心希望很快能在喬安妮餐廳再次見到二位。” 參議員看了看阿爾貝托。 “不會了，我覺得沒有這種可能了?！绷_杰斯參議員回答道。 羅杰斯和喬希一起走進寒風凜冽的夜色中。 雪已經(jīng)停了。 Unit71Can bad luck be explained?1Toast always lands butter side down. It always rains on bank holidays. You never win the lottery, but other people you know seem to ... Do you ever get the impression that you were born unlucky? Even the most rational person can be convinced at times that there is a force out there making mishaps occur at the worst possible time. We all like to believe that Murphy39。s Law is true (if it can go wrong, it will). 2Part of the explanation for bad luck is mathematical, but part is psychological. Indeed there is a very close connection between people39。s perception of bad luck and interesting coincidences. 3For example, take the belief that bad things always happen in threes (just like buses ...!) This popular notion would be unlikely to stand the scrutiny of any scientific study, but it must have some basis in experience, otherwise the phrase would never have arisen in the first place. What might be the rational explanation? 4The first question is what is bad? 5Some things are only marginally bad, for example the train arriving five minutes late. Some are extremely bad, such as failing an exam or being sacked. So badness is much better represented as being on a spectrum rather than something which is there or not there. 6A particular event may only be a misfortune because of the circumstances around it. The train arriving five minutes late is a neutral event if you are in no hurry and reading an interesting newspaper article while you wait. It is bad if you are late for an important meeting. 7When it es to bad things happening in threes, what may be most important of all is the duration and memorability of the first event. Take a burst pipe while you are away on holiday, for example. It may take less than an hour to flood the house, but this one bad event can remain alive and kicking for many months, with the cleaning up operation and the debate with your insurers acting as constant reminders of the original event. 8The longer the first bad event sticks in the front of your mind, the more opportunities you will have to experience two more bad events. A month later someone bumps the back of your car and a week after that you lose your wedding ring. The mind which is already on a low from the first event will quickly leap to connect the subsequent misfortunes as part of the series. It wouldn39。t matter that there could be a twomonth timescale over which everything happened. By the time you have recovered from the water damage you are actively looking out for the next disaster. The timescale has been extended as long as is necessary to confirm the original prophecy. 9As with coincidences, in bad luck there is a tendency to look for the examples which confirm the theory, and ignore those which don39。t (because they are less interesting). Single bad events happen all the time. That alone should be enough to disprove the theory. Bad things also e in twos. But it is more likely that a friend will tell you three bad things have happened to me, isn39。t that typical than only two bad things have happened to me, which just proves that the theory doesn39。t work. After all, the latter is tempting fate! 10There is, however, at least one rational reason why bad events might cluster together. It is related to probability and independence. Unlucky events are not always independent of each other. Anybody who is made redundant is bound to suffer some depression. That will lower the body39。s defences, making the person vulnerable to illness, and also making them less alert and responsive (so they may be more likely to drop a precious vase, for example). So while the probability of being made redundant on any particular day and the prob