【正文】 siren in the background so I missed the answer.抱歉剛才警報響了 我太沒聽清Stand up a second, so we can just hear you.站起來再回答一下好嗎Sorry, say again.請再回答一下好嗎Sure. My name is Travis.好的 我叫特拉維斯I thought we could work together, but I guess not.我本想讓大家合作的 但實際不行All right good. That39。s a pretty good reason.很好 這確實是個不錯的理由If you had chosen Beta we would have all gotten B+39。s but I guess not.如果大家都選β都能得B+ 但不太可行Good, so Travis is giving us a different reason, right?特拉維斯給出了不同的理由He39。s saying that maybe, some of you in the room might他說或許你們中的有些人actually care about each other39。s grades, right?會在意其他人的成績I mean you all know each other in class.你們互相都很熟悉You all go to the same college.你們來自同一個學(xué)院For example, if we played this game up in the business school假如我們要在商學(xué)院進(jìn)行這個博弈are there any MBA students here today? One or two.這里有念MBA的嗎 有一兩個If we play this game up in the business school,要是我們在商學(xué)院進(jìn)行這個博弈I think it39。s quite likely we39。re going to get a lot of Alpha39。s chosen, right?我覺得會有很多人選αBut if we played this game up in let39。s say the Divinity School,但是我們要是在神學(xué)院做此博弈I39。m guessing that Travis39。 answer我猜特拉維斯的回答is reflecting what you guys are reasoning here.反映了你們的理由If you played in the Divinity School,如果我們在神學(xué)院做這個游戲you might think that people in the Divinity School你們都同意吧 神學(xué)院的學(xué)生might care about other people39。s grades, right?會在意別人的成績 對嗎There might be ethical reasonsperfectly good,那就涉及到道德的因素了sensible, ethical reasonsfor choosing Beta in this game.人們出于道德的原因可能會選βThere might be other reasons as well,應(yīng)該還有其他的原因but that39。s perhaps the reason to focus on.但這個原因值得我們注意And perhaps, the lesson I want to draw out of this我希望大家從中發(fā)現(xiàn)is that right now this is not a game.這并不是真正意義上的博弈Right now we have actions, strategies for people to take,目前我們涉及行為 策略 局中人and we know what the outes are,而且我們知道不同的結(jié)果but we39。re missing something that will make this a game.但是我們忽略了一個博弈必備的因素What are we missing here?我們忽略了什么Objectives.動機We39。re missing objectives. We39。re missing payoffs.我們忽略了動機 我們忽略了收益We39。re missing what people care about, all right.我們忽略了局中人關(guān)心什么So we can39。t really start analyzing a game只有明白人們關(guān)心什么until we know what people care about,知道人們的收益是什么之后and until we know what the payoffs are.我們才能真正開始分析這個博弈Now let39。s just say something now,這里我們要解釋一下which I39。ll probably forget to say in any other moment of the class,我差點就忘記說了but today it39。s relevant. Game Theory, me, professors at Yale,博弈論 還有我 耶魯大學(xué)教授cannot tell you what your payoff should be.無法說出你的收益應(yīng)該是什么樣的I can39。t tell you in a useful way what it is我也不能告訴你that your goals in life should be or whatever.你人生目標(biāo)應(yīng)該是什么That39。s not what Game Theory is about.這不是博弈論能解決的However, once we know what your payoffs are,然而一旦你知道了個人的收益once we know what your goals are,一旦你確立了目標(biāo)perhaps Game Theory can you help you get there.博弈論能幫助你達(dá)成目標(biāo)So we39。ve had two different kinds of payoffs mentioned here.我們現(xiàn)在有兩種不同的收益We had the kind of payoff where we care about our own grade,一種是只在意自己的收益and Travis has mentioned the kind of payoff另一種像特拉維斯提到的where you might care about other people39。s grades.在意其他人的收益And what we39。re going to do today is analyze this game接下來我們分別用不同收益under both those possible payoffs.來分析一下這個博弈To start that off, let39。s put up some possible payoffs for the game.我們先寫出來這個博弈可能的收益And I promise we39。ll e back and look at some other payoffs later.我們一會再來討論另一個收益We39。ll revisit the Divinity School later.神學(xué)院的稍后再討論All right, so here once again is our same matrix with me and my pair,我們首先討論我和我對手choosing actions Alpha and Beta,選擇α或β的矩陣but this time I39。m going to put numbers in here.不過這次我們用數(shù)字來表述And some of you will perhaps recognize these numbers,有些人可能事先見過這些數(shù)字but that39。s not really relevant for now.但是現(xiàn)在這都無關(guān)緊要All right, so what39。s the idea here?為什么要引入數(shù)字呢Well the first idea is that these numbers represent utiles or utilities.首先這些數(shù)字代表了效用或者說功利They represent what these people are trying to maximize,他們代表了人們想要最大化的東西what they39。re to achieve, their goals.和想要達(dá)成的目標(biāo)The idea is just to pare this to the oute matrix is和那個結(jié)果矩陣相比for the person who39。s me here,這樣能更直觀顯示收益(A,C) yields a payoff of, so (A,C) is this box比如說 (A,C)這個單元格so (A,C) yields a payoff of three,(A,C)代表了3單位效用whereas (B,B)yields a payoff of 0, and so on.而(B,B)代表0單位效用 以此類推So what39。s the interpretation?這表示什么意思呢It39。s the first interpretation: the natural interpretation首先 大家一下that a lot of you jumped to straight away.都能想到的是These are peoplepeople with these payoffs are people有這樣的動機的人who only care about their own grades.他們只在乎自己的成績They prefer an A to a B+,他們覺得A就是比B+要好they prefer a B+ to a B,B+比B好and they prefer a B to a C.B也比C好Right, I39。m hoping I the grades in order,我希望我成績盡量好otherwise it39。s going to ruin my curve at the end of the year.要不我一年的努力就白費了So these people only care about their own grades.所以這些人關(guān)心自己的成績They only care about their own grades.他們只關(guān)心自己的成績What do we call people who only care about their own grades?我們把這種人叫什么呢What39。s a good technical term for them?有沒有適合稱呼他們的術(shù)語In England, I think we refer to these guys 在英格蘭 我們把這種人叫whether it39。s technical or not as Evil gits.自私鬼 不知道這算不算術(shù)語These are not perhaps the most moral people in the universe.可能他們一點也不講道德So now we can ask a different question.那我們再問個問題Suppose, whether these are actually your payoffs or not,不管這是不是真的就是你們收益pretend they are for now.假設(shè)這就是你們的收益Suppose these are all payoffs.現(xiàn)在這就是你們的收益了Now we can ask, not what did you do,我們不討論你做了些什么but what should you do?而討論你應(yīng)該怎么做Now we have payoffs that can由此我們就把really switch the question to a normative question:它轉(zhuǎn)化成了一個名義問題what should you do?你應(yīng)該怎么做Let39。s e back to was it Clara Elise where was Clara Elise before?我們回顧一下克萊拉?埃莉斯的觀點Let39。s get the mike on you again.我們再把麥克風(fēng)遞給她So just explain what you did and why again.請再解釋一下你的選擇及其原因Why I chose Alpha?我為什么選α嗎Yeah, stand up a second,