【正文】 reserve increase has lead negative effects to monetary policy, price level, foreign exchange rate of RMB, regional disparity, etc. this article also evaluates how much pressure it has given to the inflation, the appreciation of RMB and the holding costs of the government, banks and domestic residents.In recent years，along with the continuously development of our country’s economy, the import and exportscale extends continuously too, particularly the first six years after joining the WTO，the changes became more obviously .And also the foreign exchange reserve of our country is often creative high simultaneously. By the end of July 2007，the amount was already trillion US. Dollars. How to face it correctly，how to deal with it reasonable，and how can it promote the economy keep on a development，all these have already bee a hot topic in our society. Aim at the very rigorous problem of this reality，my dissertation carried analysis major on the reason why our foreign exchange reserve is so large and how to deal with it.In conclusion: our national foreign exchange reserve has already been the in the world, which has attained more than 1 trillion US. Dollars. From this point of view，It shows a rapidly grow of China economy，this improve our position in world economy and develop our international Prestige. The large number of foreign exchange reserve will also has a Positive effect on developing foreign trade strongly，improving international investment activity, and fighting against international financial risk. On the other side，However, the foreign exchange reserve scale of the our country has already outrun the reasonable circumscription, as a result， it has made and will continue create negative effects: large number reserve market the exchange rate adjustment mechanism to face a test additionally, enhance Chinese Yuan’s appreciation pressure, increase the inflation pressure, restrict and influence the establishment and the implement of independence monetary policy。 The reserve property also faces the threat of the depreciation, the return rate of the reserve is low, etc.The accumulation of the large number foreign exchange reserve is the result of current account’s favorable balance, capital and financial account’s favorable balance and the hot money driven by appreciation expectation of Chinese Yuan superficially. But the more deeply reason is our economy growth mode excessive depended on investment and export currently. Therefore, in order to solve the problem of the plight of china’s foreign exchange reserve fundamentally, we should start from the pattern of china’s economy development。 speed up the transformation of economic development to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.So multiple linear regression is firstly used to find out the core factors that affect the demand of foreign exchange reserve, and ratio analysis approach is then use to further analyze the explain ability of the regressed core factors. After that, in the third part, the author discusses the positive and negative effect that excessive foreign exchange reserve brings on the development of economy. For the negative effect have to some extent been made harmful impact on our economy, the author suggests some practical and feasible ideas on the scale control and management of foreign exchange reserve.附 錄2外匯儲備作為一個存量，雖然是一國對外經(jīng)濟交往流量累計的直觀反映，但它對一國的對外經(jīng)濟關(guān)系和國內(nèi)宏觀經(jīng)濟政策體系產(chǎn)生十分重要的影響，對于大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟體尤其如此。對我國而言，巨額的外匯儲備，一方面意味著我國對外支付、調(diào)節(jié)國際收支、干預(yù)外匯市場的能力大大增強，另一方面，巨額的外匯儲備以貨幣或金融資產(chǎn)的形式持有，意味著放棄了對實際資源的使用權(quán)利，不利于我國經(jīng)濟的增長和國內(nèi)居民福利的提高。同時，在我國目前的外匯管理體制下，中央銀行被動進行貨幣投放，形成大量的外匯占款，扭曲了我國基礎(chǔ)貨幣的投放渠道，并對物價形成了一定的沖擊。自布雷頓森林體系解體后，世界外匯儲備貨幣出現(xiàn)多元化趨勢，從單一的美元轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橐悦涝獮橹?，歐元、日元、英鎊等多種儲備貨幣并存的局面，這使得儲備體系不穩(wěn)定性加劇。多元化外匯儲備體系的穩(wěn)定不僅取決于關(guān)鍵儲備貨幣價值穩(wěn)定與否，還取決于其他儲備貨幣價值的穩(wěn)定與否。只要某一儲備貨幣的匯率因其國內(nèi)外政治、經(jīng)濟等相關(guān)因素的影響下跌或上升，都會引起所有國家外匯儲備結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整，從而造成整個儲備體系的不穩(wěn)定，加劇外匯市場的波論我國外匯儲備困境與對策，增加外匯儲備管理的難度?？梢姡菊n題的研究，對于外匯儲備適度規(guī)模理論創(chuàng)新和我國外匯儲備風(fēng)險的規(guī)避，都有十分重要的現(xiàn)實意義和理論意義。近年來，隨著我國經(jīng)濟的不斷發(fā)展，進出口貿(mào)易規(guī)模不斷擴大，尤其是加入世界貿(mào)易組織之后的六年來，變化更為明顯，伴之而來的是我國的外匯儲備屢創(chuàng)新高，到2009年已經(jīng)超過兩萬億美元。如何正確面對并合理應(yīng)對高額外匯儲備，以確保我國的金融安全和經(jīng)濟社會的可持續(xù)發(fā)展，己經(jīng)成為廣泛關(guān)注的熱點話題。針對這一嚴(yán)峻的現(xiàn)實問題，本文著重分析了我國外匯儲備規(guī)模過大的成因及解決的途徑。本文認為，我國外匯儲備規(guī)模已經(jīng)達到兩萬多億美元，居世界第一位。這從一個側(cè)面反映了中國經(jīng)濟的騰飛，提高了中國經(jīng)濟在世界經(jīng)濟中的地位和國際信譽，對大力發(fā)展我國的對外貿(mào)易和積極推進國際投資以及有效地防范國際金融風(fēng)險等方面己經(jīng)并將繼續(xù)發(fā)揮著積極的作用。但是，我國的外匯儲備規(guī)模已經(jīng)超出了合理限界，因而已經(jīng)并將繼續(xù)產(chǎn)生消極影響:高額外匯儲備使匯率調(diào)控機制面臨考驗，增加了人民幣升值壓力，增加了通貨膨脹壓力，制約和影響自主性貨幣政策的制定和實施。外匯儲備資產(chǎn)本身也面臨著貶值的威脅，儲備的收益率低等。中國作為外匯儲備第一大國，近年來外匯儲備問題備受關(guān)注。由于中國外匯儲備數(shù)量過大，在一定程度上導(dǎo)致貨幣擴張，誘發(fā)資產(chǎn)價格泡沫，同時外匯儲備的過快增長強化了人民幣升值預(yù)期，進一步加劇了游資流入和外匯儲備的過快增長，使投機資本流入成為外匯儲備增長的主要來源，造成外匯儲備穩(wěn)定性的下降。因此中國目前必須調(diào)整好自己的外匯儲備管理策略，以使外匯儲備風(fēng)險得到良好的管理，中國必須做到在合理安排使用過量的外匯儲備，保持適度儲備水平的基礎(chǔ)上進一步改革外匯體制，在實行意愿結(jié)售匯制度基礎(chǔ)上，大力發(fā)展二級儲備。其次還要擴大匯率浮動范圍，健全儲備政策和匯率政策協(xié)調(diào)運行機制，減少資本項目管制，適度開放資本賬戶。此外，中國還需要減少外匯儲備，增加黃金儲備。最后，中國巨額外匯儲備管理中最重要的不僅僅是外匯儲備的規(guī)模管理，還要注重外匯儲備的結(jié)構(gòu)的管理。中國要調(diào)整自己的外匯儲備管理策略，必要時借鑒國外的外匯儲備先進管理經(jīng)驗，優(yōu)化儲備結(jié)構(gòu)。巨額外匯儲備的累積，表面上看去是經(jīng)常項目順差、資本項目順差、以及人民幣預(yù)期升值驅(qū)動下投機資金三者共同作用的結(jié)果，但更深層次的原因是，目前我國過度依賴投資和出口的經(jīng)濟增長方式。因此，要從根本上解決我國外匯儲備的困境問題，還是要從中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模式出發(fā)，加快轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式，推動產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級。在本文第一部分中，首先，筆者對研究外匯儲備規(guī)模時所可能涉及的重要概念進行了梳理，而后，在第二部分中筆者全面回顧了改革開放以來我國外匯儲備規(guī)模的發(fā)展歷程，認真探討了規(guī)?？焖僭鲩L的主要原因。在此基礎(chǔ)之上,筆者重點分析了高額外匯儲備的對我國經(jīng)濟運行所產(chǎn)生的正反兩方面的影響；同時，筆者認為當(dāng)前的高額外匯儲備規(guī)模已對我國經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生較大的負面影響，在外匯儲備規(guī)模的管理上，我國貨幣當(dāng)局需要從控制外匯儲備規(guī)模和加強外匯儲備管理兩方面入手，并且對此提出了合理的操作建議。25