決策制定ppt課件(2)-資料下載頁
2025-05-06 07:41本頁面
【正文】 unusual and for which information is ambiguous or inplete. ? Nonprogrammed Decisions（非程序化決策） ?Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring. ?Decisions that require custommade solutions. Types of Problems, Types of Decisions, and Level in the Organization DecisionMaking Conditions ? Certainty（確定性） ?A ideal situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the oute of every alternative choice is known. （在理想的情況下管理者可以制定出精確地決策，因為每一種方案的結(jié)果是已知的） ? Risk（風險） ?A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outes that result from the choice of particular alternatives. （管理者能夠估計每一種方案的結(jié)果發(fā)生的可能性） Exhibit Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift Expected Expected Probability = Value of Each Event Revenues Alternative Heavy snowfall $850,000 = $255,000 Normal snowfall 725,000 = 362,500 Light snowfall 350,000 = 70,000 $687,500 DecisionMaking Conditions ? Uncertainty（不確定性） ?Limited information prevents estimation of oute probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition, hunches, and “gut feelings”. ?Maximax（最大最大選擇） : the optimistic manager’s choice to maximize the maximum payoff（最大化最大可能收益） ?Maximin（最大最小選擇） : the pessimistic manager’s choice to maximize the minimum payoff（最大化最小可能收益） ?Minimax（最小最大選擇） : the manager’s choice to minimize his maximum regret.（最小化其最大遺憾） Exhibit Payoff Matrix（收益矩陣） Exhibit Regret Matrix（遺憾矩陣） 42 非確定型決策 項目 銷路好 銷路一般 銷路差 改進生產(chǎn)線 180 120 40 新建生產(chǎn)線 240 100 80 外包生產(chǎn) 100 70 16 收益矩陣 單位：萬元 43 遺憾矩陣 單位：萬元 項目 銷路好 銷路一般 銷路差 改進生產(chǎn)線 60 0 56 新建生產(chǎn)線 0 20 96 外包生產(chǎn) 140 50 0
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