【導(dǎo)讀】Tenneco.ArvinMeritor,AutoNation,BWarnerInc.,DaimlerChryslerAG,DanaCorp.,Delphi,Ford,GeneralMotors,GenuinePartsCo.,GoodyearTire&Rubber,JohnsonControls,Lear. Automotive.

　　

【正文】 leSaabAcuraSubaruToyotaCadi ll acNi ssanJeepSuzukiHondaFordMazdaChevrol et / GeoJaguarPonti acSaturnDodgeIsuzuBMWAudiHyundaiMitsubi shiMercedesVol voVol kswagenKiaRange RoverActual Perceived Quality GapA c t ua l qua l i t y pe r c e i v e d qua l i t y = s h a r e r i s kA c t ua l qua l i t y pe r c e i v e d qua l i t y = s h a r e o ppo r t un i t ySource: JD Power, CNW amp。 Man Stanley Research The Big Three: Positives amp。 Negatives Each Company Faces Unique Challenges: ? GM has operational momentum and has made significant strides relative to its fixed legacy costs. ? Ford’s share is likely to remain under pressure. While earnings and cost cutting have been strong, cash flow needs to catch up. ? DCX continues to struggle with its product line. Quality issues, both perceived (Chrysler) and actual (Mercedes) continue to linger. Big Three Relative Stock Performance: 2020 Source: FactSet amp。 Man Stanley Research 60. 080. 0100 . 0120 . 0140 . 0160 . 0180 . 01/2/20032/2/20033/2/20034/2/20035/2/20036/2/20037/2/20038/2/20039/2/200310/2/200311/2/200312/2/2003GMFD CXS P XGeneral Motors ? GM still appears to have a variable cost advantage vs. F amp。 DCX and a fixed cost disadvantage. ? GM’s aggressive funding of pension and healthcare have helped to narrow the fixed cost disadvantage. ? Significant new product launches give GM its best chance of gaining share/reducing incentives in years. ? GM is going into 2020 with above average inventory. ? Finance pany earnings are likely to decline due to higher interest rates and lower mortgage refinancing activity. GM Market Share 25%27%29%31%33%35%37%90 CY 93 CY 96 CY 99 CY 02 CY% % % Source: Autodata amp。 Man Stanley Research . Healthcare amp。 Pension Cost/Unit FY03 Source: Company data amp。 Man Stanley Research $1,134 $601 3 0 02007001 , 2 0 01 , 7 0 02 , 2 0 0GM F o r d DCXP e ns i onO P E B$1,159 $814 $889 $740 $1,899 $902 $1074 $185 $88 GM Pension Funded Status: 2020 Update Source: Company Data amp。 Man Stanley Research C o m p o n e n ts (i n $ b i l l i o n s )Y E 200 2 (17. 8)S e r v i c e amp。 In t e r e s t C o s t (6. 0)L a b o r C o n t r a c t (2. 1)200 3 Y T D C o n t r i b ut i o n 14. 4D e c 200 3 C o n t r i b ut i o n 4. 150 b ps L o w e r D i s c o un t R a t e (3. 8)18% A s s e t R e t ur n s 10. 8Y E 200 3 F o r e c as t (0. 4)GM Has Built Inventory in 2020 Source: Autodata amp。 Man Stanley Research I n v B u i l d I n v B u i l dD e c 02 D e c 03 D e c 01 D e c 02 D i ffGM 17 5, 89 6 71 , 09 7 10 4, 79 9F (1, 80 0) 16 1, 20 0 (16 3, 00 0)D CX 3, 70 8 75 , 60 1 (71 , 89 3)B i g 3 17 7, 80 4 30 7, 89 8 (13 0, 09 4)Financial Service Earnings Unlikely to Match 2020 Source: Company data amp。 Man Stanley Research P re t a x P ro f i t 2020 2020 2020EG M ( i n U S D mm ) 2 , 8 7 6 2 , 9 6 9 4 , 2 2 9 F ( i n U S D mm ) 1 , 5 3 2 2 , 1 5 3 3 , 1 5 3 D C X ( i n EU R mm ) 578 964 1 , 3 2 8 GM New / Replacement / Redesigned Products Source: Company Data, Ward’s Automotive amp。 Man Stanley Research B r a n d P r o d u c t I n tro D a teC a d i l l a c S R X S e p 0 3C a d i l l a c X L R S e p 0 3C h e v r o l e t M a l i b u 2020C h e v r o l e t C o l o r a d o D e c 0 3C h e v r o l e t E q u i n o x e a r l y 2 0 0 4C h e v r o l e t C o r v e t t e 2020P o n t i a c G6 2020C a d i l l a c S T S 2020H u mme r H 3 2020C h e v r o l e t C o b a l t J u n 0 5S a a b 95 2020Ford Motor Company ? Earnings have exceeded expectations. Now cash flow needs to catch up. ? With the exception of the FSeries, new products are limited until yearend, suggesting share pressure is likely to continue. ? International Operations / Premier Auto Group need to start pulling their weight. ? Stability in management ranks is important. F Market Share 19%21%23%25%27%81CY83CY85CY87CY89CY91CY93CY95CY97CY99CY01CY03CYSource: Autodata amp。 Man Stanley Research % % % % F vs. GM Cash Flow Source: Company reports amp。 Man Stanley Research GM v s Fo r d c a s h f l ow 9 m os 0 3Ope r a t i ng GM FGM / b/ ( w) t ha n Fo r dN e t I nc om e 0 . 6 0 . 1 0 . 5Damp。A 5 . 2 4 . 0 1 . 2C a px 4 . 5 5 . 6 1 . 1W / C 0 . 3 1 . 4 1 . 1Ope r a t i ng e x c l ud i ng t i m i ng di f f e r e nc e s 1 . 0 2 . 9 3 . 9A c c ur e d E x p T i m i ng di f f e r e nc e s * 3 . 4 1 . 0 2 . 4T ota l Ope r a t i ng 4 . 4 1 . 9 6 . 3*P e n s i o n amp。 O P E B n e t o f p a y m e n ts , w a rr a n ty / i n c e n ti v e a c c ru a l sF Auto PreTax Profit, 19992020E Source: Company Data amp。 Man Stanley Research (4, 000 )(2, 000 )2, 0004, 0006, 0008, 0001999 2020 2020 2020 2020E 2020EF Geographic Pretax Profit: 3Q03 vs. 3Q02 Source: Company reports amp。 Man Stanley Research 8004000400800NA Eu r P A G Oth e r3Q 02 3Q 03F New / Replacement / Redesigned Products Source: Company Data, Ward’s Automotive amp。 Man Stanley Research B ra n d P ro d u ct I n t ro D a t eF o r d F S e r i e s S e p 0 3F o r d F r e e s t ar O c t 0 3V o l v o S 4 0 s p r i n g 2 0 0 4F o r d F r e e s t y l e 2020F o r d M u s t an g f al l 2 0 0 4F o r d F i v e H u n d r e d l at e 2 0 0 4F o r d F u t u r a 2020F New Product Monitor Source: Autodata amp。 Man Stanley Research D a y