第八章-公司戰(zhàn)略和凈現(xiàn)值分析(編輯修改稿)
2024-11-17 22:47 本頁面
【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 ,000,000 per year. If they are only $6,000,000 per year, the NPV falls to $1,341.64,Also known as “what if” analysis。 we examine how sensitive a particular NPV calculation is to changes in the underlying assumptions.,Sensitivity Analysis,We can see that NPV is very sensitive to changes in revenues. For example, a 14% drop in revenue leads to a 61% drop in NPV,For every 1% drop in revenue we can expect roughly a 4.25% drop in NPV,Scenario Analysis,A variation on sensitivity analysis is scenario analysis. For example, the following three scenarios could apply to Stewart Pharmaceuticals: The next years each have heavy cold seasons, and sales exceed expectations, but labor costs skyrocket. The next years are normal and sales meet expectations. The next years each have lighter than normal cold seasons, so sales fail to meet expectations. Other scenarios could apply to FDA approval for their drug. For each scenario, calculate the NPV.,BreakEven Analysis,Another way to examine variability in our forecasts is breakeven analysis. In the Stewart Pharmaceuticals example, we could be concerned with breakeven revenue, breakeven sales volume or breakeven price. The breakeven IATCF is given by:,BreakEven Analysis,We can start with the breakeven incremental aftertax cash flow and work backwards through the income statement to back out breakeven revenue:,,BreakEven Analysis,Now that we have breakeven revenue as $5,358.72 million we can calculate breakeven price and sales volume. If the original plan was to generate revenues of $7,000 million by selling the
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