外文翻譯--中國的人口老齡化(編輯修改稿)
2025-06-26 08:13 本頁面
【文章內容簡介】 aces in balancing economic development and providing adequate oldage support. Lastly, we review some alternative policy options and potential opportunities China may have in addressing this global population problem of the 21 st century. 2 An Accelerated Model of Mortality and Fertility Decline As one of the oldest human societies in existence, China’ s population history up to the twentieth century fits the description of the pretransitional stage of the classic model of demographic transition. Under a high fertility and high mortality regime, the population fluctuated between 37 and 60 million in size for over a thousand years prior to the 17 th century。 then for the first time experienced rapid growth and reached a size of over 400 million during the reign of the Qing Dynasty (1749– 1851)。 but then had its growth slowed again between 1851 and 1949 as a consequence of the social turmoil caused by civil wars and imperialist invasions (Banister 1992). The establishment of the People’ s Republic of China in 1949 marked the beginning of its demographic transition, a process that distinguished China from the rest of world due to its extraordinarily rapid declines of mortality and fertility (see Fig. ), neither of which would have been possible without strong government intervention. 3 The Trend of Population Aging in Urban and Rural China The very success of China’ s mortality and fertility decline has accelerated the process of population aging in China. Using the urban/rural definition from the 1982 population census, Wang and Mason (2020) projected that 15 per cent of the urban population would be 65 years and older in 2020, while the same figure would not be achieved in rural China until twenty years later. However, massive rural to urban migration that started in the 1980s may very well change the scenario. It was conservatively estimated t
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