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The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics . 2008 (4) 致謝 將近兩個月的時間，畢業(yè)論文終于在今天截稿。同時也很感謝我的母校提供了許多教學(xué)資源，圖書館有大量的資料可供查閱，還有學(xué)校購買的各種數(shù)據(jù)庫，使我們查閱資料方便了許多，而且有現(xiàn)成的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)可供利用，在實際操作中省去了許多麻煩。附錄A：2016年4月70個大中城市新建住宅價格指數(shù)城市新建住宅價格指數(shù)城市新建住宅價格指數(shù)環(huán)比同比定基環(huán)比同比定基上月=100上年同月=1002015年=100上月=100上年同月=1002015年=100北　　京 唐　　山 天　　津 秦 皇 島 石 家 莊 包　　頭 太　　原 丹　　東 呼和浩特 錦　　州 沈　　陽 吉　　林 大　　連 牡 丹 江 長　　春 無　　錫 哈 爾 濱 揚(yáng)　　州 上　　海 徐　　州 南　　京 溫　　州 杭　　州 金　　華 寧　　波 蚌　　埠 合　　肥 安　　慶 福　　州 泉　　州 廈　　門 九　　江 南　　昌 贛　　州 濟(jì)　　南 煙　　臺 青　　島 濟(jì)　　寧 鄭　　州 洛　　陽 武　　漢 平 頂 山 長　　沙 宜　　昌 廣　　州 襄　　陽 深　　圳 岳　　陽 南　　寧 ?！　〉? 海　　口 惠　　州 重　　慶 湛　　江 成　　都 韶　　關(guān) 貴　　陽 桂　　林 昆　　明 北　　海 西　　安 三　　亞 蘭　　州 瀘　　州 西　　寧 南　　充 銀　　川 遵　　義 烏魯木齊 大　　理 注：環(huán)比以上月價格為100，同比以上年同月價格為100，定基以2015年價格為100。s fourthlargest investment bank Lehman brothers filed for bankruptcy protection for logo, America39。 Financial risk。s risk. When real estate prices continue to fall, real estate mortgage guarantee foundation will be weakened, and real estate financial risks is cumulative, once the outbreak, will expand rapidly, a large area of the financial turmoil. The main characteristic of this paper lies in the integrated use of knowledge of finance, statistics, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, general analysis and specific analysis the way of bining analysis of real estate financial risks, the mercial bank loan balance relations empirical test with the theory of real estate prices, real estate prices is not content to get bank loans is granger cause test results, but set up a new variable, the real estate price and the bank loan and the relationship between a specific index of granger causality test again. Finally on the basis of test results, in the aspect of reading a large number of relevant literatures basis, put forward advice on how to prevent the real estate financial risks in mercial bank.2 Literature review Theory researchDavis (2008) from the perspective of the borrower and the bank demonstrates the real estate prices will affect the bank credit. The authors think that real estate price changes affect the borrower39。t timely payment, so the mortgage houses, cars and other property will being reclaimed by lenders, then realized by the mortgaged property to offset loan losses. Summaries of real estate financial risksReal estate finance risk refers to the financial institutions, real estate finance business, due to the decisionmaking errors, poor management or the change in the objective environment causes the return on assets, or the possibility of credit losses. General real estate financial risk refers to a system of real estate finance faces all the risk, not just refers to a financial institution or a project risks. Typical real estate risk, the risk of mercial Banks are facing, as in the real estate finance business will also encounter, only form different, here is a typical real estate financial risks, mainly includes: Interest rate riskIn the real estate finance business, the mercial bank is the main basis risk and option risk. Basis risk refers to the reprising of assets and liabilities of time even if Banks are the same, but as long as the deposit interest rate and loan interest rate adjustment is not pletely consistent, Banks will face the risk. The decision is not mercial bank deposit and lending rates, is likely to see the central bank in order to achieve control target and make the regulation range of the two is not consistent, the profit space may be pressed, mercial Banks face a loss。2008年9月巧日，以美國第四大投資銀行雷曼兄弟公司申請破產(chǎn)保護(hù)為標(biāo)志，美國次貸危機(jī)惡化。不僅如此，受次貸危機(jī)的影響，美國國內(nèi)失業(yè)率持續(xù)攀升，美元持續(xù)貶值，股指持續(xù)下滑，房地產(chǎn)價格持續(xù)下跌，消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)持續(xù)走低，經(jīng)濟(jì)前景堪憂。這一風(fēng)險一旦爆發(fā)，對整個體系將造成巨大威脅。關(guān)鍵詞：房地產(chǎn)；金融風(fēng)險；銀行貸款1 引言房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是一個高風(fēng)險的行業(yè)，房地產(chǎn)金融在支撐房地產(chǎn)業(yè)迅速發(fā)展的同時，不可避免地承擔(dān)了房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的高風(fēng)險。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的乘數(shù)效應(yīng)，使得房地產(chǎn)貸款也相應(yīng)地在銀行的資產(chǎn)組合中引發(fā)乘數(shù)效應(yīng)，這將導(dǎo)致銀行風(fēng)險的加大。本文的主要特點(diǎn)在于綜合運(yùn)用金融學(xué)、統(tǒng)計學(xué)知識，采取理論分析和實證分析、定性分析與定量分析、一般分析與特殊分析相結(jié)合的方式，對房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險進(jìn)行分析，對商業(yè)銀行貸款余額與房地產(chǎn)價格的理論關(guān)系進(jìn)行實證檢驗，并不滿足于得到的銀行貸款是房地產(chǎn)價格格蘭杰原因的檢驗結(jié)果，而是設(shè)立新的變量，對房地產(chǎn)價格與銀行貸款某一具體指標(biāo)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行再一次的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗。2 文獻(xiàn)綜述Davis(2008)從借款人和銀行的角度出發(fā)，論證了房地產(chǎn)價格會影響銀行的信貸規(guī)模。而從銀行的角度出發(fā)，銀行發(fā)放的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款和房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)抵押貸款是其所有貸款業(yè)務(wù)中最具有“順周期”特質(zhì)、最容易波動的資產(chǎn)。Gale(2009)提出基于信貸擴(kuò)張的資產(chǎn)價格模型，認(rèn)為資產(chǎn)的基礎(chǔ)價值是投資者運(yùn)用自有資金進(jìn)行投資所形成的資產(chǎn)價格，而當(dāng)投資者運(yùn)用借貸資金進(jìn)行投資時，由于投資者對借貸資金只承擔(dān)有限責(zé)任，他們更多地表現(xiàn)出對風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)的偏好，因此會不斷推高資產(chǎn)的價格。Krug (2010)經(jīng)過研究指出，幾乎所有的房地產(chǎn)泡沫都是由銀行融資引起的。Coolly (2012)對東南亞金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)國家房地產(chǎn)價格與人均GDP、貸款余額進(jìn)行了向量自回歸分析，指出房地產(chǎn)價格將在貸款發(fā)放增加的6個季度內(nèi)上