【正文】 does not exist cointegration relationship, and further points out that the changes in the real estate price cycle will lead to the change of the bank credit cycle for a long time. Davis (2010), selected sample data of 17 countries on mercial real estate prices and the relationship between the bank lending has carried on the empirical analysis, it is concluded that real estate prices will lead to the conclusion of bank credit expansion.3 Commercial Banks and real estate financial risks Real estate financeMany scholars have done how to define the connotation and extension of the real estate financial aspects of the discussion and research. Is widely recognized, real estate finance generalized refers to all and housing development, construction, trade, consumption and management of financing activities related to the economic activity and the narrow sense of real estate finance refers to the nonprofit housing agencies or consumer with the residents of housing development, construction, trade, consumption and management and other economic activities related to the financing activities. In this study, tend to use the broad scope of real estate finance, and real estate finance is in real estate development, construction, trade, consumption and management in the process of a series of the floorboard of the financial activities, including through currency circulation and credit channel of monetary financing, financing and other related financial activities. The basic function of real estate finance is by using a variety of financial instruments and tools for the real estate industry and raise money, for the development of the real estate industry, circulation and consumption to provide financial support, to ensure the smooth progress of the real estate development activities. According to the types of business can put the real estate finance is divided into five categories, absorption of the real estate industry, housing savings deposit and lending for real estate, real estate investment pawn, trust, insurance, currency settlement and real estate agents in securities offerings. According to the service object can be the real estate finance is divided into two categories, for the real estate industry of real estate development, construction, trade, consumption and management activities such as the service of real estate financial and for the residents of the residential building, purchasing, maintenance, and decoration and consumption activities such as service housing finance. Real estate finance is the great bination of financial activity and the real estate industry. First of all, the real estate finance to asymmetric, the borrower usually in proportion to pay a small amount of down payment for the right to use house, then borrow the rest of the money from financial institutions, amortization: secondly, the real estate loan repayments guaranteed, if the borrower can39。隨著次貸危機(jī)的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展，金融行業(yè)一個(gè)行業(yè)的危機(jī)開始向多種實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)蔓延，零售業(yè)、汽車業(yè)、餐飲業(yè)等多個(gè)領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)銷售下降、需求萎縮的狀況。因此，研究如何防范房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有重大的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。當(dāng)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格持續(xù)下跌，房地產(chǎn)抵押貸款的擔(dān)?；A(chǔ)就會(huì)被削弱，而房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有累積性，一旦爆發(fā)，便會(huì)迅速擴(kuò)大，出現(xiàn)大面積的金融風(fēng)波。作者認(rèn)為房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的變化影響借款人對(duì)自己財(cái)富的預(yù)期，進(jìn)而影響他們的消費(fèi)計(jì)劃，進(jìn)一步影響他們的信貸需求。在該理論中，銀行貸款是形成資產(chǎn)泡沫的重要原因。Hofmann(2013)對(duì)20個(gè)主要工業(yè)化國(guó)家的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與GDP、利率和貸款量的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)20個(gè)國(guó)家中有巧個(gè)國(guó)家可以在10%的顯著性水平下拒絕房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與GDP和銀行。 Collins (2010)指出當(dāng)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲時(shí)，銀行愿意放松貸款條件并提供更多的房地產(chǎn)貸款，提出了一個(gè)使房地產(chǎn)業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)周期聯(lián)系起來的傳播機(jī)制，并強(qiáng)調(diào)在監(jiān)管薄弱和外資流入的情況下，該機(jī)制的作用可能放大。Herring(2009)立足國(guó)際視角，對(duì)房地產(chǎn)泡沫和銀行危機(jī)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究，構(gòu)建了信貸市場(chǎng)模型，指出銀行的集中貸款導(dǎo)致了房地產(chǎn)泡沫，房地產(chǎn)泡沫將可能引發(fā)銀行危機(jī)。最后在檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)之上，在閱讀大量相關(guān)方面文獻(xiàn)基礎(chǔ)之上，提出商業(yè)銀行如何防范房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的建議。金融業(yè)作為房地產(chǎn)資金的主要供給方，一旦出現(xiàn)金融危機(jī)，金融業(yè)的資金發(fā)生問題，就會(huì)影響房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的各種矛盾也不斷凸顯出來，房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項(xiàng)目過度依賴銀行資金，把風(fēng)險(xiǎn)全部轉(zhuǎn)移給商業(yè)銀行，使商業(yè)銀行面對(duì)巨大的房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，就是其中的一個(gè)突出矛盾。 Option refers to the risk due to various reasons in advance if the borrower repay the housing loan principal and interest of risk. If the central bank cut interest rates continuously, rational and will have the ability of borrowers to repay the outstanding loan lent a lower interest rate of loan, the default behavior will make the mercial bank profit losses. The risk of defaultAccording to the reasons, it can be divided into moral credit risk and the risk of credit moral credit risk. In real estate finance business, the morality risk refers to the borrower has the ability to clearly reimbursement, but due to interest, malicious or deferred payment is directly to stop paying and brings to the mercial bank credit risk. The moral hazard refers to the borrower under the influence of the factors of force majeure unable to plete the credit risk caused by payment. Among them, the morality is can control and manage credit risk, the current promoting credit reporting system is one of the preventive measures. According to the object can be divided into developers default risk and personal risk of default. Systemic riskAlso it is called undiversifiable risk, policy risk, mainly involved in the business of real estate finance economic cyclical fluctuation risk, purchasing power risk, etc. In order to prevent a housing bubble after the international financial crisis, countries enacted some inhibition of the real estate market economic policies and regulations, which have an impact on the real estate market, indirect affect the development of real estate finance business and innovation, so the policy risk can cause a loss to mercial Banks. Economic cycle fluctuation on economic blow is huge, and cannot be spread out, when the economy is in a low, the real estate market are not immune to the possibility of considerable mercial bank losses. Purchasing power risk, also known as inflation, changes in the price level leads to the real burden of borrowers and lenders and real earnings uncertainty, the possibility of actual loss of the mercial Banks.譯文房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范研究Dionne G摘要2007年4月2日，以美國(guó)第二大次級(jí)抵押貸款公司新世紀(jì)金融公司申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)為標(biāo)志，美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)。 Bank loan1 IntroductionReal estate industry is a highrisk industry, real estate finance in support of the rapid development of the real estate industry at the same time, inevitably bears the risk of real estate industry. Financ