【正文】 er 2008, America39。 Option refers to the risk due to various reasons in advance if the borrower repay the housing loan principal and interest of risk. If the central bank cut interest rates continuously, rational and will have the ability of borrowers to repay the outstanding loan lent a lower interest rate of loan, the default behavior will make the mercial bank profit losses. The risk of defaultAccording to the reasons, it can be divided into moral credit risk and the risk of credit moral credit risk. In real estate finance business, the morality risk refers to the borrower has the ability to clearly reimbursement, but due to interest, malicious or deferred payment is directly to stop paying and brings to the mercial bank credit risk. The moral hazard refers to the borrower under the influence of the factors of force majeure unable to plete the credit risk caused by payment. Among them, the morality is can control and manage credit risk, the current promoting credit reporting system is one of the preventive measures. According to the object can be divided into developers default risk and personal risk of default. Systemic riskAlso it is called undiversifiable risk, policy risk, mainly involved in the business of real estate finance economic cyclical fluctuation risk, purchasing power risk, etc. In order to prevent a housing bubble after the international financial crisis, countries enacted some inhibition of the real estate market economic policies and regulations, which have an impact on the real estate market, indirect affect the development of real estate finance business and innovation, so the policy risk can cause a loss to mercial Banks. Economic cycle fluctuation on economic blow is huge, and cannot be spread out, when the economy is in a low, the real estate market are not immune to the possibility of considerable mercial bank losses. Purchasing power risk, also known as inflation, changes in the price level leads to the real burden of borrowers and lenders and real earnings uncertainty, the possibility of actual loss of the mercial Banks.譯文房地產(chǎn)市場風險防范研究Dionne G摘要2007年4月2日，以美國第二大次級抵押貸款公司新世紀金融公司申請破產(chǎn)保護為標志，美國次貸危機爆發(fā)。金融業(yè)作為房地產(chǎn)資金的主要供給方，一旦出現(xiàn)金融危機，金融業(yè)的資金發(fā)生問題，就會影響房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。Herring(2009)立足國際視角，對房地產(chǎn)泡沫和銀行危機的關(guān)系進行研究，構(gòu)建了信貸市場模型，指出銀行的集中貸款導致了房地產(chǎn)泡沫，房地產(chǎn)泡沫將可能引發(fā)銀行危機。Hofmann(2013)對20個主要工業(yè)化國家的房地產(chǎn)價格與GDP、利率和貸款量的關(guān)系進行了研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)20個國家中有巧個國家可以在10%的顯著性水平下拒絕房地產(chǎn)價格與GDP和銀行。作者認為房地產(chǎn)價格的變化影響借款人對自己財富的預期，進而影響他們的消費計劃，進一步影響他們的信貸需求。因此，研究如何防范房地產(chǎn)金融風險具有重大的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。s expectations of their wealth, will affect their consumption plans, and further affect their credit demand. And from the perspective of the bank, the bank lending for real estate development loans and real estate assets mortgage is one of the most in all of its loan business procyclical characteristics, the most volatile assets. Herring (2009) based on the international perspective, the study on the relationship between the real estate bubble and the banking crisis, the credit market model was constructed, caused the real estate bubble is pointed out that the focus of bank loans, real estate bubble would be likely to cause a banking crisis. Gale (2009) proposed the asset price model based on credit expansion, think the assets on the basis of value is formed by the investors to use its own funds asset prices, when investors use borrowed money to invest, as investors to borrow money only for limited liability, they appear to be more preference for risk assets, so will continue to push up asset prices. In the theory, the bank loan is the important reason for the formation of asset bubbles. Krug (2010) through the study, almost all of the real estate bubble is caused by the bank financing. Collins (2010) pointed out that when real estate prices, the bank was willing to ease lending conditions and provide more real estate loans, proposed a link on the real estate industry and economic cycle of transmission mechanism, and stressed that in the case of weak regulation and foreign capital inflows, the role of the mechanism may be enlarged. Empirical researchCoolly (2012) of southeast Asia financial crisis in real estate prices and GDP per capita, loan balance vector auto regression analysis, points out that real estate prices will rise in six quarters of loans increase. Hofmann (2013) of 20 major industrialized countries real estate prices and GDP, the relationship between interest rates and lending was studied, and found that the 20 countries in the country can refuse to under 10% significance level real estate prices and GDP and bank loans null hypothesis does not exist cointegration relationship, and further points out that the changes in the real estate price cycle will lead to the change of the bank credit cycle for a long time. Davis (2010), selected sample data of 17 countries on mercial real estate prices and the relationship between the bank lending has carried on the empirical analysis, it is concluded that real estate prices will lead to the conclusion of bank credit expansion.3 Commercial Banks and real estate financial risks Real estate financeMany scholars have done how to define the connotation and extension of the real estate financial aspects of the discussion and research. Is widely recognized, real estate finance generalized refers to all and housing development, construction, trade, consumption and management of financing activities related to the economic activity and the narrow sense of real estate finance refers to the nonprofit housing agencies or consumer with the residents of housing development, construction, trade, consumption and management and other economic activities related to the financing activities. In this study, tend to use the broad scope of real estate finance, and real estate finance is in real estate development, construction, trade, consumption and management in the process of a series of the floorboard of the financial activities, including through currency circulation and credit channel of monetary financing,