【正文】 of Objective 項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理的指派 PMBOK Project Manager’s Assignment 項(xiàng)目可行，越早越好。 問題：以上哪個(gè)最好？ One answering principle, only choose the best fit answer. 范圍說明 Scope Statement PMBOK Provides a documented basis for 1. Making future project decision 2. Confirming or developing mon understanding of project scope among the stakeholders. Will be revised or refined to reflect approved scope changes. Includes or reference to: 項(xiàng)目論證（ Project justification） – Business needs。 Deliverableoriented, Not activity oriented. Work not in WBS is outside scope of project. Unique identifier? Code of account Work package? Lowest level item of WBS ? Can be deposed in a Subproject WBS. ? some books: 80 hours. WBS dictionary: work ponent descriptions. typically include: work package, schedule dates, Cost budget, staff assignment… 工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)與其他結(jié)構(gòu)的區(qū)別 PMBOK CWBS(Contractual WBS)：合同工作分解結(jié)構(gòu) 定義賣方提供給買方報(bào)告的層次，不如 WBS詳細(xì)。 RBS (Resource breakdown structure)：資源分解結(jié)構(gòu) OBS的一種變異，將工作元素分配到個(gè)人。 PBS (Project breakdown Structure) ：項(xiàng)目分解結(jié)構(gòu) 即 WBS，用于某些將 BOM稱為 WBS的領(lǐng)域。 需要審查 Deliverables和 Work results，以確保正確圓滿完成。 注意區(qū)別：范圍核實(shí)與質(zhì)量控制。 與范圍定義中分解的區(qū)別 : Output 不同： deliverable / activity. 活動(dòng)清單（ ） 項(xiàng)目執(zhí)行的 所有活動(dòng) 。 每個(gè)活動(dòng)要有描述。 又叫精細(xì)化 Refinement. Dependencies 依賴關(guān)系 PMBOK ? Mandatory 強(qiáng)制 ?Often involve physical or technological limitations (based on the nature of work being done) ?也叫硬邏輯，硬依賴關(guān)系。 有虛擬活動(dòng) Dummy Activity: 一般用虛線表示 , 0 duration. No Lag One relationship: Finish to start S 1 2 3 4 E A B C D E F G 計(jì)劃評(píng)審技術(shù) PERT PMBOK Three time estimate 悲觀值 Pessimistic 最可能值 Most Likely 樂觀值 Optimistic Weighted Average=(Optimistic + 4*Most likely + Pessimistic)/6 Standard deviation(標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差 )=(Pessimistic Optimistic)/6 Beta Distribution Most Likely PERT Weighted Average 關(guān)鍵路徑法 CPM PMBOK One time estimate – Most likely Calculate forward pass backward pass Float/Slack 時(shí)差 Free float= Early Finish Early start of successor activity (不影響任何緊隨活動(dòng)的 ES。 ) Critical Path Longest Shortest Zero 條件圖法 PMBOK Conditional Diagramming Method GERT：圖形評(píng)審技術(shù) 允許回路（ LOOP，如：重復(fù)多次進(jìn)行一項(xiàng)測(cè)試）或條件分枝 （ Conditional branches，如：只有當(dāng)檢測(cè)出錯(cuò)誤時(shí)才進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì)更新）的存在，這是 PDM和 ADM所不允許的。 可包括整個(gè)項(xiàng)目，也可是其中一部分。 特別用于網(wǎng)絡(luò)中有重疊或相似內(nèi)容時(shí)。 趕工 Crashing: 成本與進(jìn)度的平衡 /折衷。 確定如何用最小的成本獲得最大的工期壓縮。 快速跟進(jìn) Fast tracking: 將前后順序變?yōu)槠叫? （ change sequence to parallel）。 工期壓縮 Duration Compression PMBOK Resource Leveling/Smoothing/Allocation: 用在 resources constraint circumstances. 將稀缺資源先分配到關(guān)鍵路徑上。 Often result the longer duration than preliminary schedule. 資源重新分配 （ Resource Reallocation） : 用在 time constraint circumstances 將資源從非關(guān)鍵路徑上重新分配到關(guān)鍵路徑上，以彌補(bǔ)已經(jīng)落今后的進(jìn)度，或盡可能接近原定工期。 成本管理的方法？ 資源計(jì)劃 、 成本的估算、預(yù)算、控制 誰對(duì)成本在不同時(shí)間有不同的需求？ 管理層（實(shí)施結(jié)果，獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)與識(shí)別），買方（不同的合同類型下） 針對(duì)不同的管理需要，成本有哪些類型？ 可控、不可控；固定、變動(dòng)；直接、間接 ? 如何控制與管理變更？ 糾正措施？ S曲線？掙值？ 成本估算技術(shù) （ Cost Estimating Techniques） ? 模擬 (類比 )估算 Analogous Estimating – ―top down‖。 ? Without detailed data, Best guess, usually made during Initiation Phase ? Other Names: guesstimates, Conceptual, Preliminary ? 預(yù)算估算 Budget Estimate: ? 10% to 25%。 ? Well defined data, usually bottom up. ? Other Names: Check, Lump sum, Tender, Post contract changes. 估算的準(zhǔn)確性 ?Cost Estimates: – 量級(jí)估算 Order of Magnitude (ballpark estimate)： During initial evaluation – 預(yù)算估算 Budget : Used to obtain funds and project approval. – 確定估算 Definitive: Proposals, bid evaluation, contract change etc. Order of Magnitude Definitive Estimate Budget Estimate 75% 25% 25% 10% 10% 5% 生命周期成本（ Life cycle costing） ?開發(fā)成本 Development cost ?生產(chǎn)成本 Production cost ?運(yùn)維成本 Operating/ Maintenance cost ?處置成本 Discard cost – Disposal cost while product passed its point of usefulness. (. 電池，化學(xué)品 etc.) Time Value of Money ? PV = amount of payment in N years divided by (1 + interest)n ? NPV=Sum of PV of inflow and outflow – NPV0, go – NPV=0, consider – NPV0, no go ? IRR = that rate of discount at which the sum of the positive present values is equal to the sum of the negative present values. OR cost equal revenue and project is a break even. 相關(guān)財(cái)務(wù)術(shù)語及概念的介紹 ? Accounting Standards – Distinguish Price and Cost. – Present Value: value today of future cash flows – Net Present Value: total benefits (ine or revenue) less the costs. NPV is the sum of each present value of each ine/revenue item – Internal Rate of Return (IRR): pany may select project based on highest IRR – Payback Period: number of time periods it takes to recover the investment in the project before generating revenues – Opportunity Cost: opportunity given up by selecting one project over another – Sunk Costs: expended costs. Sunk costs should not be considered when determining to continue with a troubled project – Variable Cost: costs that change with the amount of production or the amount of work (materials, wages) – Fixed Cost: nonrecurring costs that do not change 相關(guān)財(cái)務(wù)術(shù)語及概念的介紹 續(xù) ? Accounting Standards（ Con’t） – Direct Cost: directly attributable to project work (travel, wages, materials) – Indirect Cost: overhead items or costs for the benefit of more than one project (taxes, fringe benefits) – Depreciation: assets lose value over time ? Straight Line depreciation: same amount is taken each year ? Accelerated Depreciation: 2 forms 187。Sum of the Years Digits – Life Cycle Costing: includes operations and maintenance phases – Cost Benefit Analysis: analysis the relation between cost and benefit – 2/10 Net 30 (Payment terms) 儲(chǔ)備（ Reserves） ?目的： 當(dāng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件發(fā)生時(shí)降低或減少成本超支或進(jìn)度拖延的機(jī)會(huì)。 綜合了范圍、成本和進(jìn)度計(jì)劃測(cè)量。 SPI= EV/PV=$800/$1000= 同樣：每花 1元產(chǎn)出的工作價(jià)值 。 3種方法： EAC=BAC/CPI (Default) EAC=AC + BACEV EAC= AC + ETC Sample Question W or k U n i tC om pl e t i onD a t