【正文】 nt taxes should be reduced 確定條件下的投資決策－現(xiàn)金流估算 ? 現(xiàn)金流估算－增量現(xiàn)金流（ incremental basis） ? Incremental Cash Flows(增量現(xiàn)金流） : in calculating the NPV of a project, only cash flows that are incremental to the project should be used. These cash flows are the changes in the firm’s cash flows that occur as a direct consequences of accepting the project. ? Sunk Costs（沉沒成本） : a cost that has already occurred. Because sunk cost are in the past,they can not be changed by the decision to accept or reject the project. Just as we “l(fā)et bygones be bygones”, we should ignore such costs, that is, sunk costs are not incremental cash outflows. ? Opportunity Costs（機會成本） : If the assets is used in a new project, potential revenues from alternative uses are lost. These lost revenues can meaningfully be viewed as cost. They are called opportunity costs because, by taking the project, the firm foes other opportunities for using the assets. ? Side Effects（關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng)） : another difficulty in determining incremental cash flows es from the side effects of the proposed project on other parts of the firm. The most important side effect is erosion. Erosion is the cash flow transferred to a new project from customers and sales of other products of the firm. 確定條件下的投資決策－現(xiàn)金流估算 ? 現(xiàn)金流估算－增量現(xiàn)金流：總結(jié) ? Capital budgeting must be placed on an incremental basis. This means that sunk costs must be ignored, while both opportunity costs and side effects must be considered。 ? 投資與資本 投資決策－基本原理 Date 0 Date i 自由現(xiàn)金流 Date 1 C3 C0 C1 C2 Ci ?? ????????????? Ni iiNNrCCrCrCrCCNP V102210 )1()1(...)1()1(適用的資金成本率（最低報酬率） ? 前提條件 : 有效率資本市場（有效市場假設(shè)） ? 交易無成本 ? 可自由進入資本市場 ? 借入和借出資本的信息可獲得 ? 存在大量的交易者，且每一個交易者對市場價格均無顯著影響 ? 一個有效率的資本市場對凈現(xiàn)值原理的意義： ? (1)給投資者根據(jù)其偏好對消費模式進行跨期調(diào)整提供了可能。職能戰(zhàn)略－財務(wù)戰(zhàn)略（策略） 李建良 北京信息科技大學(xué)經(jīng)濟管理學(xué)院 北京信息科技大學(xué)企業(yè)成長研究中心 2022年 要點 ? 企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略三層次邏輯框架 ? 企業(yè)財務(wù)戰(zhàn)略的邏輯框架 ? 企業(yè)財務(wù)戰(zhàn)略決策的要點 ? 投資決策 ? 基本原理 ? 確定條件下的投資決策 ? 不確定條件的投資決策 ? 融資決策 ? 營運資金決策 ? 股利決策 企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略三層次邏輯框架 公司級戰(zhàn)略：多產(chǎn)品公司總戰(zhàn)略 BUA戰(zhàn)略 BUB戰(zhàn)略 BUC戰(zhàn)略 營銷策略 財務(wù)策略 運營策略 ?何處競爭？ ?何時競爭？ ?如何競爭？ ?一般競爭戰(zhàn)略 ?成本領(lǐng)先 ?差異化 ?集中化 ?發(fā)展型戰(zhàn)略 ?穩(wěn)定型戰(zhàn)略 ?緊縮型戰(zhàn)略 財務(wù)控制：價值流 物流控制：物質(zhì)流 企業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施 人力資源管理 技術(shù)開發(fā) 采購 進貨后勤 生產(chǎn)作業(yè) 發(fā)貨后勤 經(jīng)營銷售 服務(wù) 輔助活動 基本活動 外部價值鏈 職能戰(zhàn)略：將公司級戰(zhàn)略和業(yè)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)化為具體的職能策略和行動舉措！ 單一業(yè)務(wù)公司 企業(yè)財務(wù)戰(zhàn)略的邏輯框架 流動資產(chǎn) 固定資產(chǎn) 其他長期資產(chǎn) 流動負(fù)債 長期負(fù)債 所有者權(quán)益 凈營運資金 ? 投資決策 ? （長期）融資決策 ? 營運資金（流動資金）決策 ? 股利決策 公司戰(zhàn)略 /業(yè)務(wù)單元戰(zhàn)略的戰(zhàn)略類型（發(fā)展型、緊縮型、穩(wěn)定型）和一般競爭戰(zhàn)略途徑選擇（成本領(lǐng)先、差異化、集中化）對財務(wù)戰(zhàn)略（策略）的要求 適應(yīng) 投資決策－基本原理 ? 投資是經(jīng)濟主體讓渡現(xiàn)行的貨幣使用權(quán)，以期在未來獲得一定的貨幣收入的經(jīng)濟行為（規(guī)劃現(xiàn)金流的行為）。包括實物投資和金融投資兩大類； ? 投資活動的兩大特征：時間（延期消費）和風(fēng)險（未來不確定性）； ? 投資者的回報補償：（１）投資資金被占用的時間價值；（２）預(yù)期的通貨膨脹率；（３）未來收益的不確定性。這樣，經(jīng)理層只需依據(jù)正的凈現(xiàn)值進行決策，無需關(guān)注不同投資者的消費模式的差異（可以通過在資本市場借入借出進行調(diào)整）； ? (2)給投資者、公司甚至政府提供了一個進行投資決策的比較標(biāo)準(zhǔn)：任何一項投資至少應(yīng)獲得與資本市場投資相同的收益，否則直接投資資本市場獲取機會收益就可。 ? In the Baldwin Company case, we puted NPV using the following two steps: ? A) calculate the cash flow from all sources for each period ? B) calculate the NPV using the cash flows calculated above. 確定條件下的投資決策－現(xiàn)金流估算 ? 貼現(xiàn)率估算－資本成本 The Weighted Average Cost of Capital（加權(quán)平均資金成本） de RTLRLW A C C ??????? )1()1(Debts/Total Capital Cost of Equity Cost of Debts Tax rate 由于公司在稅后才向權(quán)益投資者支付股利，所以 Re是稅后報酬率 債務(wù)利息是稅前支付，有減稅作用，故 Rd前必須乘以（ 1T）以調(diào)整成稅后債務(wù)成本 資本成本在投資決策中的作用： （１）在 NPV運用中作為折現(xiàn)率（假定項目風(fēng)險與公司風(fēng)險一致） （２）在 IRR運用中作為基準(zhǔn)利率 確定條件下的投資決策－貼現(xiàn)率估算 ? 貼現(xiàn)率估算－資本成本 The Cost of Equity Capital（權(quán)益成本） ])([)( fmifi RRERRE ???? ?Riskfree return: longterm bonds interest rate Market return, usually represented by market index return, such as the return of Samp。P500 )()(500amp。 fPSfiPSi RR RRR R ?? ???? ?確定條件下的投資決策－貼現(xiàn)率估算 ? Nominal interest rate（名義利率） ? Real interest rate（實際利率） ? Real interest rate=(1+Nominal interest rate)/(1+Inflation rate)1 ? Real interest rate ? Nominal interest rateInflation rate ? Nominal cash flow（名義現(xiàn)金流） ? Real cash flow（實際現(xiàn)金流） ? Real cash flows must be discounted at the real rate ? Nominal cash flows must be discounted at the nominal rate Discount: Nominal or Real? 確定條件下的投資決策－通貨膨脹處理 ? 互斥項目新購買決策－不對等期限處理 ? New Purchase Decision（新購買決策） : suppose a firm must choose between two machine of unequal lives, both machines can do the same job, but they have different operating costs and will last for different time periods. A simple application of the NPV rule suggests that we should take the machine whose costs have the lower present value. This could lead to the wrong decision, though, because the lowercost machine may need to be replaced before the other one. How should we do? ? If we are choosing between two mutually exclusive projects that have different lives, the projects must be evaluated on an equallife basis. 確定條件下的投資決策－互斥項目 ? 互斥項目新購買決策－不對等期限處理 Example 1(newpurchase decision): machine A costs $ 500, lasts three years, maintenance expenses $ 120 per year。 discount rate 10%. All costs in real term, revenue per year are assumed to be the same, regardless of machine. Which machine should be selected? 43232100$100$100$100$600$$:120$120$120$500$$:?????????BAUnder the same revenue, machine A has lower cost, choose machine A? NO! why? Because machine B has a longer life so perhaps its cost per year is actually lower!!! 確定條件下的投資決策－互斥項目 ? 互斥項目新購買決策－不對稱期限處理：期限匹配法 Method 1: Matching Cycles suppose run the example for 12 years, machine A has 4 plete cycles, and machine B has 3. So parison appropriate. 19 7 1:21 8 8:84c os963c os120120???????????ttPVBPVAFirst replacement occurs at date 3, another cost occurs in PV term. First replacement occurs at date 4, another cost occurs in PV