【正文】 tele Effect（股東構成理論） : under the given tax policy(different dividend tax rate and capital gain tax rate), different shareholders prefer to different dividend policy 股利決策 ? 決策因素 ? Investment Choices（投資機會） ? Earnings Stability（收入的穩(wěn)定性） ? The Ability of Financing（公司融資能力的大?。? ? The Limits from Regulations and Contracts（法律法規(guī)及合同的限制） ? Information Effects（信息效應） ? Shareholders’ Preferences（股東偏好） 股利決策 ? 決策因素 階段 1(開發(fā) ) 階段 2(擴張 ) 階段 3(成熟增長 ) 階段 4(衰退 ) 受規(guī)模和其他基礎設施的限制 相對于公司價值較高 相對于公司價值中等 由于投資項目萎縮，資金需求較低 進行投資，流量為負 相對于公司價值較低 占公司價值的比例上升 相對于公司價值較高 沒有股利發(fā)行新股 沒有或低于股利 增加股利 特殊股利，股票回購 資金需求 產(chǎn)。 (2)efficiently receive。 ? 投資與資本 投資決策－基本原理 Date 0 Date i 自由現(xiàn)金流 Date 1 C3 C0 C1 C2 Ci ?? ????????????? Ni iiNNrCCrCrCrCCNP V102210 )1()1(...)1()1(適用的資金成本率（最低報酬率） ? 前提條件 : 有效率資本市場（有效市場假設） ? 交易無成本 ? 可自由進入資本市場 ? 借入和借出資本的信息可獲得 ? 存在大量的交易者，且每一個交易者對市場價格均無顯著影響 ? 一個有效率的資本市場對凈現(xiàn)值原理的意義： ? (1)給投資者根據(jù)其偏好對消費模式進行跨期調整提供了可能。 second, calculate the yearly cost for the old equipment, this cost likely rises over time because the machine’s maintenance expenses should increase with age. Replacement should occur right before the cost of the old equipment exceeds the EAC on the new equipment. 確定條件下的投資決策－互斥項目 Example 2 (replacement decision): BIKE is contemplating whether to replace an existing machine or to spend money overhauling it. BIKE currently pays no taxes. The replacement machine costs $9000 now and requires maintenance of $1000 at the end of every year for eight years. At the end of eight years it would have a salvage value of $2022 and would be sold. The existing machine requires increasing amounts of maintenance each year, and its salvage value falls each year, as shown below: ? 互斥項目設備更新決策－不對稱期限處理 Year Maintenance Salvage Present $0 4000 1 1000 2500 2 2022 1500 3 3000 1000 4 4000 0 Suppose the maintenance fee is paid at the end of of the year, the machine will last for four more years before it falls apart. If BIKE faces an opportunity cost of capital of 15%,when should it replace the machine? 確定條件下的投資決策－互斥項目 Step 1: calculate the EAC of the new machine Step 2: calculate the cost of maintain the old machine Step 3: make a parison: Replace immediately! %)151( 202210009000 808c os88 os ?????????? ?? APVE A CAPV tne wt??3375%)151(29352935%1511500%151202225003100%)151(26962696%1512500%15110004000212c o s101c o s????????????????????????d a t etd a t etFVPVFVPVYear 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 …… . Expense from replacing immediately 2860 2860 2860 2860 …… . Expense from replacing one year later 3100 2860 2860 2860 …… . Expense from replacing two year later 3100 3375 2860 2860 …… . ? 互斥項目設備更新決策－不對稱期限處理 確定條件下的投資決策－互斥項目 不確定條件的投資決策 ? 公司策略行為對凈現(xiàn)值的影響 ? Positive NPV is accepted, but what are the sources of positive NPV? Positive NPV Lower investment(outflows) Higher inflows Lower discount rate (risks) A significant part of corporate strategy analysis is seeking investment opportunities that can produce positive NPV. ? 公司策略行為對凈現(xiàn)值的影響 Strategic action to create positive NPV Introduce new product Develop core technology Create barrier to entry Introduce variation on existing products Create product differentiation Utilize anizational innovation Exploit new technology 不確定條件的投資決策 ? 公司策略行為與股票價格 Strategic actions Positive NPV Stock price rising ? 中國股市的“概念滿天飛”現(xiàn)象分析 不確定條件的投資決策 ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法 Strategic action to positive NPV is uncertain Develop analytical tools to deal with uncertainty Limit the application of NPV rule ? Decision Trees（決策樹） ? Sensitivity Analysis（敏感性分析） ? Scenario Analysis（情景分析） ? BreakEven Analysis（盈虧平衡分析） ? Options（期權） Further discussion 不確定條件的投資決策 ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法 方法一：決策樹 Decision Tree Date 0 Date 1 Date 2 to 5 Test and develop $ 100 Initial investment $ 1500 Production $ 900 Discount rate 15% 75% chance to test successfully test Do not test success failure invest Do not invest Do not invest invest NPV=1517 NPV=0 NPV=3611 Expected NPV1= 1517 75%+25% 0=1138, NPV0=100+1138/(1+15%)=890 Decision: to conduct the test!!! 不確定條件的投資決策 方法二： Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario Analysis Only one variable varied,others fixed Many variables varied together Variable Pessimistic Expected or Best Optimistic Market size(per year) 5000 10000 20220 Market share 20% 30% 50% Price $ million $ 2 million $ million Variable cost(per year) $ million $ 1 million $ million Fixed cost(per year) $ 1891 million $ 1791 million $ 1741 million Investment $ 1900 million $ 1500 million $ 1000 million Pessimistic Expected or Best Optimistic Market size(per year) $ 1802 $ 1517 $ 8154 Market share 696 1517 5942 Price 853 1517 2844 Variable cost(per year) 189 1517 2844 Fixed cost(per year) 1295 1517 1628 Investment 1208 1517 1903 Investment on date o,inflows from date1 to date5,depreciation 300 per year。這種由于負債引起的普通股每股收益的波動幅度大于 EBIT波動幅度的現(xiàn)象被稱為財務杠桿。 ? considering those costs from debt financing, such as bankruptcy cost and and agency costs. 融資決策－資本結構 ? Tax Shield Effects（節(jié)稅效應）： VL = VU + TD, MM theory argued that the firm’s value rises with leverage in the presence of corporate taxes. 由于債務的利息是在稅前支付的，企業(yè)由此減少了所得稅的支付，由此獲得節(jié)稅利益。 fPSfiPSi RR RRR R ?? ???? ?確定條件下的投資決策－貼現(xiàn)率估算 ? Nominal interest rate（名義利率） ? Real interest rate（實際利率） ? Real interest rate=(1+Nominal interest rate)/(1+Inflation rate)1 ? Real interest rate ? Nominal interest rateInflation rate ? Nominal cash flow（名義現(xiàn)金流） ? Real cash flow（實際現(xiàn)金流） ? Real cash flows must be discounted at the real rate ? Nominal cash flows