【正文】 斥項目新購買決策－不對等期限處理 ? New Purchase Decision（新購買決策） : suppose a firm must choose between two machine of unequal lives, both machines can do the same job, but they have different operating costs and will last for different time periods. A simple application of the NPV rule suggests that we should take the machine whose costs have the lower present value. This could lead to the wrong decision, though, because the lowercost machine may need to be replaced before the other one. How should we do? ? If we are choosing between two mutually exclusive projects that have different lives, the projects must be evaluated on an equallife basis. 確定條件下的投資決策－互斥項目 ? 互斥項目新購買決策－不對等期限處理 Example 1(newpurchase decision): machine A costs $ 500, lasts three years, maintenance expenses $ 120 per year。 ? In the Baldwin Company case, we puted NPV using the following two steps: ? A) calculate the cash flow from all sources for each period ? B) calculate the NPV using the cash flows calculated above. 確定條件下的投資決策－現(xiàn)金流估算 ? 貼現(xiàn)率估算－資本成本 The Weighted Average Cost of Capital（加權(quán)平均資金成本） de RTLRLW A C C ??????? )1()1(Debts/Total Capital Cost of Equity Cost of Debts Tax rate 由于公司在稅后才向權(quán)益投資者支付股利，所以 Re是稅后報酬率 債務(wù)利息是稅前支付，有減稅作用，故 Rd前必須乘以（ 1T）以調(diào)整成稅后債務(wù)成本 資本成本在投資決策中的作用： （１）在 NPV運用中作為折現(xiàn)率（假定項目風(fēng)險與公司風(fēng)險一致） （２）在 IRR運用中作為基準(zhǔn)利率 確定條件下的投資決策－貼現(xiàn)率估算 ? 貼現(xiàn)率估算－資本成本 The Cost of Equity Capital（權(quán)益成本） ])([)( fmifi RRERRE ???? ?Riskfree return: longterm bonds interest rate Market return, usually represented by market index return, such as the return of Samp。包括實物投資和金融投資兩大類； ? 投資活動的兩大特征：時間（延期消費）和風(fēng)險（未來不確定性）； ? 投資者的回報補償：（１）投資資金被占用的時間價值；（２）預(yù)期的通貨膨脹率；（３）未來收益的不確定性。 ? 投資與資本 投資決策－基本原理 Date 0 Date i 自由現(xiàn)金流 Date 1 C3 C0 C1 C2 Ci ?? ????????????? Ni iiNNrCCrCrCrCCNP V102210 )1()1(...)1()1(適用的資金成本率（最低報酬率） ? 前提條件 : 有效率資本市場（有效市場假設(shè)） ? 交易無成本 ? 可自由進入資本市場 ? 借入和借出資本的信息可獲得 ? 存在大量的交易者，且每一個交易者對市場價格均無顯著影響 ? 一個有效率的資本市場對凈現(xiàn)值原理的意義： ? (1)給投資者根據(jù)其偏好對消費模式進行跨期調(diào)整提供了可能。P500 Ri RSamp。 machine B costs $ 600, lasts four years, maintenance expenses $ 100 per year。 Discount rate 15%, tax rate 34% Given numbers NPV Using SA ?? ???? 5 1 %)151( 90015001517 t t[10000*30%*(21)1791300]*(134%)+300=900 Only Market size changed from 1000 to 20220, other variables fixed ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法 不確定條件的投資決策 U nc er ta in f ac to rs F ix ed a sse t in vt . P ro du ct p ric e M at er ia ls ’ s p ric e In de x In vt .P rogr am 10% +1 0% 10% +1 0% 10% +1 0% IR R (% ) 12 .7 8 13 .7 1 11 .9 9 9. 72 15 .5 1 15 .2 3 10 .0 8 10% 20% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Standard IRR 9% Program’s IRR % Product’s price Fixed assets investment 不確定因素變化率 A B C Materials’ price ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法－敏感性分析的另一種表達(dá) 不確定條件的投資決策 方法三：盈虧平衡分析 BreakEven Analysis ?In profit quantity ?In NPV quantity )1()()1()()1()()1()(0)1()(****cccccTVPTDCQTDCTVPQTDCVQPQ?????????????????????????)1()()1()1()1()()1(])([***cccccccTVPTDTCE A CQTDTCE A CTVPQE A CDTDCVPQ?????????????????????????????Pprice, Vvariable costs per unit, Cfixed costs, Ddepreciation, Tctax rate, Q*breakeven sales units Equivalent Annual Costs Trd a teTrd a teAI n v e s tm e n tE A CAE A CI n v e s tm e n t00????? 折舊亦是固定成本之一部分 。 (2)efficiently receive。 融資決策－資本結(jié)構(gòu) MM Propositions Without Taxes Proposition I ( no taxes ): The value of the levered firm is the same as the value of the unlevered firm無論公司有無負(fù)債，其價值等于公司所有資產(chǎn)的預(yù)期收益額除以適于該公司風(fēng)險等級的報酬率。節(jié)稅利益的存在，使得負(fù)債企業(yè)的價值及其股東權(quán)益高于無負(fù)債企業(yè)； ? Motivation Effects（經(jīng)營激勵效應(yīng)）：當(dāng)公司增加債務(wù)時，公司的破產(chǎn)可能性增加，對債權(quán)人還本付息的現(xiàn)金流壓力會使經(jīng)理人手中的“自由現(xiàn)金”得到控制，現(xiàn)金流出的壓力會促使經(jīng)理人提高經(jīng)營效率，以免因公司破產(chǎn)而導(dǎo)致個人的名譽、地位和收益損失。 EBIT EPS Line with tax Line without tax 0 The Benefits from Debt Financing（債務(wù)增加的收益） 融資決策－負(fù)債約束 ? Bankruptcy costs（破產(chǎn)成本） ?Direct costs: Lawyer fees（律師費） , administrative and accounting fees（行政與會計費用） , expert witness fees when a trial takes place（作證費用） . ?Indirect costs: 股東及經(jīng)理人“合謀”短期利益（ transfer assets or profit, cancel required maintenance expenses, and so on), 顧客、供貨商和資金提供者的避險行為選險（ sales are frequently lost because of both fear of impaired services and loss of trust, and so on). ? Agency costs（代理成本 , shareholders versus bondholders） : there are three kinds of selfish strategies that shareholders use to hurt the bondholders and help themselves. These strategies are costly because they will lower the market value of the whole firm. ?Incentive to take risks: invest high risk project, issue more bonds, and so on ?Incentive toward underinvestment: positive NPV benefits bondholders at the cost of shareholders’ money. ?Milking the property: pay out extra dividends or other distributions in times of financial distress, leaving less in the firm for the bondholders. The Costs from Debt Financing（債務(wù)帶來的成本） 融資決策－負(fù)債約束 The Optimal Amount of Debt and the Value of the Firm V=VU+TDFDC =VU+TDFCCAC PV of bankruptcy cost PV of agency cost Value of Firm(V) Debt (D) Value of firm with no debt(VU) Value of firm under MM with tax and debt(VL) Actual value of firm(V) Present value of tax shield on debt(TD) Present value of financial distress costs(FDC) D*Optimal amount of debt V*maximum firm value 融資決策－負(fù)債約束 ? 定義 Payment of cash for raw materials Cash received from sold goods Time: 1 year ( less ) Cash inflows Cash outflows Purchase of machine Time: years Cash inflows Cash outflows Shortterm financial decision 1 3 2 4 Longterm financial decision ?Shortterm finance is an analysis of decision that affect current assets and current liabilities and will frequently hav