外文翻譯---股利政策和組織的資本市場(chǎng)-在線瀏覽
2024-07-24 08:51本頁(yè)面
【正文】 hanism. In this case, and despite the close banking relations and closely held nature of the firms, the payment of a dividend is necessary to attract capital. With the substitute hypothesis we would expect dividends to be more predictable in arms length capital markets to provide the assurance to external investors that the firm’s operations are sound. In contrast, in bank centric markets we would expect this munication to be immediate and the dividends to reflect the firm’s unpredictable internal cash flow. In particular, we test 1) Do firms in these emerging markets have less predictable dividend payments than firms in the USA? and 2) Are dividends for firms in emerging markets less sensitive to past dividends and more sensitive to current earnings than US firms? We know that Lintner style dividend smoothing characterizes the policy of many US firms and that this stems from an arms length capital markets perspective. With the substitute hypothesis we would not expect Lintner’s model to hold as well for emerging market firms. These hypotheses are interrelated, but if we find the answer is generally yes, we take this as support for the ‘‘substitute’’ theory of dividend policy. On the other hand, if we find that dividend policy in these emerging markets is predictable and can be characterized quite accurately by a Lintner model, we take this as support for the ‘‘plement’’ theory of dividend policy. Table 4 provides summary statistics on dividend policy and some key financial ratios for panies in each of our eight emerging countries and the USA. Since all the values are ratios, they are sometimes skewed when dividing by small numbers. For this reason the median and mean are both reported, along with the standard deviation. As well, all observations lying outside three standard deviations from the mean were removed. The standard ratios for analyzing dividend policy are the dividend yield, which in this case is the annual dividend divided by the average of the year’s high and low stock price, and the dividend payout, which is the ratio of the dividend paid to the earnings per Key financial ratios are the return on equity (ROE) as a measure of profitability, the debt ratio and the interest coverage ratio as measures of credit worthiness and the current ratio as a measure of liquidity. For the eight emerging markets the median payout ratios are similar to those of the US firms, with only Turkish panies obviously higher, and Pakistani firms lower. In contrast, median dividend yields are higher in all these emerging market countries than in the USA. This indicates that the emerging market firms tend to payout approximately the same as their US counterparts but the much greater depth in the US stock market values these dividends much higher. This again is an indicator of the relative underdevelopment of stock markets in these countries. Interestingly again Malaysia is closest to the USA with a median dividend yield of %, while the big difference in the Korean mean and median dividend yields is mainly a function of time: in the earlier period the moribund state of Korean markets lead to high dividend yields that were erased by the end of the period. A major conclusion from the discriminant analysis and the sample statistics is that there is greater dividend instability, in the sense of unpredictability, in our sample of emerging market firms than there is in the US control sample. This is consistent with our prior theorizing that bank centric financial systems place less weight on the dividend as either a signaling or premitment device. Contrary to our financial systems taxonomy, this conclusion is as valid for Korea and Malaysia, which we regarded as ‘‘most like the US’’ as it is for Jordan, which we regarded as the most developed bank oriented system. In all these emerging markets it appears that other
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