【正文】 Holly said that vaccinations caused autism in children, but her scientifically wellread friend Caleb said that this claim had been debunked and proven false. Their friend Alice offered a promise that vaccinations must cause some autism, just not all autism.。t necessarily indicate that there is a causal relationship.Example: fallacy is coined after a marksman shooting randomly at barns and then painting bullseye targets around the spot where the most bullet holes appear, making it appear as if he39。t believe everything you read about meta analyses of methodologically sound studies showing proven causal relationships.第二十三條：德克薩斯神槍手23. thetexas sharpshooterYou cherrypicked a data cluster to suit your argument, or found a pattern to fit a presumption.This 39。 statistical reality.Example:s testimony as opposed to understanding plex data and variation across a continuum. Quantitative scientific measures are almost always more accurate than personal perceptions and experiences, but our inclination is to believe that which is tangible to us, and/or the word of someone we trust over a more 39。 medicines such as antibiotics.第二十二條：軼事證據(jù)22. anecdotalYou used a personal experience or an isolated example instead of a sound argument or pelling evidence.It39。The medicine man rolled into town on his bandwagon offering various natural remedies, such as very special plain water. He said that it was only natural that people should be wary of 39。t mean it39。 but naturalness itself doesn39。good39。natural39。natural39。The word of Zorbo the Great is flawless and perfect. We know this because it says so in The Great and Infallible Book of Zorbo39。 rights, the Supreme Leader told the people they were either on his side, or they were on the side of the enemy.第二十條：竊取論點20. begging the questionYou presented a circular argument in which the conclusion was included in the premise.This logically incoherent argument often arises in situations where people have an assumption that is very ingrained, and therefore taken in their minds as a given. Circular reasoning is bad mostly because it39。t allow for the many different variables, conditions, and contexts in which there would exist more than just the two possibilities put forth. It frames the argument misleadingly and obscures rational, honest debate.Example:Accused on the 6 o39。s similar to an ad hominem fallacy in that it leverages existing negative perceptions to make someone39。s or someone39。s argument.Example:true39。s belief is rendered unfalsifiable because no matter how pelling the evidence is, one simply shifts the goalposts so that it wouldn39。 or that the whole must apply to its parts.Often when something is true for the part it does also apply to the whole, or vice versa, but the crucial difference is whether there exists good evidence to show that this is the case. Because we observe consistencies in things, our thinking can bee biased so that we presume consistency to exist where it does not.Example: Bob says that he knows a scientist who also questions evolution (and presumably isn39。isn39。 therefore the authority that such a person or institution holds does not have any intrinsic bearing upon whether their claims are true or not.Example:re only a silly old superstition. Sean, however, had had a few too many Guinness himself and fell off his chair.第十五條：訴諸權(quán)威15. appeal to authorityYou said that because an authority thinks something, it must therefore be true.It39。Red had e up six times in a row on the roulette wheel, so Greg knew that it was close to certain that black would be next up. Suffering an economic form of natural selection with this thinking, he soon lost all of his savings.第十四條：樂隊花車14. bandwagonYou appealed to popularity or the fact that many people do something as an attempted form of validation.The flaw in this argument is that the popularity of an idea has absolutely no bearing on its validity.If it did, then the Earth would have made itself flat for most of history to acmodate this popular belief.Example: happening may be low, each spin of the wheel is itself entirely independent from the last. So whilst there may be a very small chance that heads will e up 20 times in a row if you flip a coin, the chances of heads ing up on each individual flip remain 50/50, and aren39。 occur to statistically independent phenomena such as roulette wheel spins.This monly believed fallacy can be said to have helped create an entire city in the desert of Nevada USA. Though the overall odds of a 39。s fallacyYou said that 39。Fine for parking here39。t paid his parking fines, he