【導(dǎo)讀】s. Berners-Lee(TheWebat25).s. ElonUniversity?importantinpeople?sdailylives.AaronSmith,SeniorResearcher,PewResearchCenter’sInterProject. LeeRainie,Director,PewResearchCenter’sInterProject

　　

【正文】 hines, robotics and AI are different. Due to their versatility and growing capabilities, not just a few economic sectors will be affected, but whole swaths will be. This is already being seen now in areas from robocalls to lightsout manufacturing. Economic efficiency will be the driver. The social consequence is that goodpaying jobs will be increasingly scarce.” g 11 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Argument 2: The consequences for ine inequality will be profound For those who expect AI and robotics to significantly displace human employment, these displacements seem certain to lead to an increase in ine inequality, a continued hollowing out of the middle class, and even riots, social unrest, and/or the creation of a permanent, unemployable “underclass”. Justin Reich, a fellow at Harvard University39。s Berkman Center for Inter amp。 Society, said, “Robots and AI will increasingly replace routine kinds of work—even the plex routines performed by artisans, factory workers, lawyers, and accountants. There will be a labor market in the service sector for nonroutine tasks that can be performed interchangeably by just about anyone—and these will not pay a living wage—and there will be some new opportunities created for plex nonroutine work, but the gains at this top of the labor market will not be offset by losses in the middle and gains of terrible jobs at the bottom. I39。m not sure that jobs will disappear altogether, though that seems possible, but the jobs that are left will be lower paying and less secure than those that exist now. The middle is moving to the bottom.” Stowe Boyd, lead researcher at GigaOM Research, said, “As just one aspect of the rise of robots and AI, widespread use of autonomous cars and trucks will be the immediate end of taxi drivers and truck drivers。 truck driver is the numberone occupation for men in the .. Just as importantly, autonomous cars will radically decrease car ownership, which will impact the automotive industry. Perhaps 70% of cars in urban areas would go away. Autonomous robots and systems could impact up to 50% of jobs, according to recent analysis by Frey and Osborne at Oxford, leaving only jobs that require the 39。application of heuristics39。 or creativity…An increasing proportion of the world39。s population will be outside of the world of work—either living on the dole, or benefiting from the dramatically decreased costs of goods to eke out a subsistence lifestyle. The central question of 2025 will be: What are people for in a world that does not need their labor, and where only a minority are needed to guide the 39。botbased economy?” Nilofer Merchant, author of a book on new forms of advantage, wrote, “Just today, the guy who drives the service car I take to go to the airport [said that he] does this job because his last blue collar job disappeared from automation. Driverless cars displace him. Where does he go? What does he do for society? The gaps between the haves and havenots will grow larger. I39。m reminded of the line from Henry Ford, who understood he does no good to his business if his own people can39。t afford to buy the car.” Alex Howard, a writer and editor based in Washington, ., said, “I expect that automation and AI will have had a substantial impact on whitecollar jobs, particularly backoffice functions in g 12 PEW RESEARCH CENTER clinics, in law firms, like medical secretaries, transcriptionists, or paralegals. Governments will have to collaborate effectiv ely with technology panies and academic institutions to provide massive retraining efforts over the next decade to prevent massive social disruption from these changes.” A consistent theme among both groups is that our existing social institutions—especially the educational system—are not up to the challenge of preparing workers for the technology and roboticscentric nature of employment in the future. Howard Rheingold, a pioneering Inter sociologist and selfemployed writer, consultant, and educator, noted, “The jobs that the robots will leave for humans will be those that require thought and knowledge. In other words, only the besteducated humans will pete with machines. And education systems in the . and much of the rest of the world are still sitting students in rows and columns, teaching them to keep quiet and memorize what is told to them, preparing them for life in a 20th century factory.” Bryan Alexander, technology consultant, futurist, and senior fellow at the National Institute for Technology in Liberal Education, wrote, “The education system is not well positioned to transform itself to help shape graduates who can ?race against the machines.? Not in time, and not at scale. Autodidacts will do well, as they always have done, but the broad masses of people are being prepared for the wrong economy.” On a more hopeful note, a number of experts expressed a belief that the ing changes will allow us to renegotiate the existing social pact around work and employment. Possibility 1: We will experience less drudgery and more leisure time Hal Varian, chief economist for Google, envisions a future with fewer ?jobs? but a more equitable distribution of labor and leisure time: “If ?displace more jobs? means ?eliminate dull, repetitive, and unpleasant work,? the answer would be yes. How unhappy are you that your dishwasher has replaced washing dishes by hand, your washing machine has displaced washing clothes by hand, or your vacuum cleaner has replaced hand cleaning? My guess is this ?job displacement? has been very wele, as will the ?job displacement? that will occur over the next 10 years. The work week g 13 PEW RESEARCH CENTER has fallen from 70 hours a week to about 37 hours now, and I expect that it will continue to f