【導讀】GoldmanSachs(Asia).financial. forinnovators?closed-loopecosystems.GoldmanSachs(Asia).GoldmanSachs(Asia).GoldmanSachs(Asia).PortfolioManager?sSummary4. Howdoesitwork?Howdotheymakemoney?Yu;RobertD.Boroujerdi;ShinHorie;PhilippaVizzone,CFA;RichardManley;TimothyMoe,CFA;AndrewTilton;Eliot. Camplisson;HeathP.Terry,CFA;HugoScott-Gall;RichardRamsden;JernejOmahen;RyanNash,CFA;AdamHotchkiss;DanielPowel;ThomasWang;ShuoYang,;ElsieCheng,RonaldKeung,CFA;LucyLi;KatherineLiu;MichelleCheng;

　　

【正文】 p Yirendai 84% CreditEase Holdings Alibaba Micro Loan 100% Ant Financial 33%1 Alibaba Group MYbank 30% Ant Financial 33%1 Alibaba Group WeBank 30% Tencent Tenpay Micro Loan 100% Tencent 15% Tencent Lufax Ping An Group Alibaba Group Alibaba Group 15% Tencent Personal credit scoring Zhima Credit 100% Ant Financial 33%1 Alibaba Group Qianhai Credit 100% Ping An Group Tencent Credit 100% Tencent Kaola Zhengxin 32% Lakala 31% Lenovo Holdings China Chengxin Credit Sinoway Credit 15% Tsinghua University Onlineonly insurance Zhong An Online Pamp。C 16% Ant Financial 33%1 Alibaba Group 12% Tencent 12% Ping An Group Cloud puting Alibaba Cloud 100% Alibaba Group Tencent Cloud 100% Tencent Ping An Cloud 100% Ping An Group Jcloud 100% Baidu Financial Cloud 100% Baidu Publicly listed panies Note: agreement, subject to regulatory approval. 2. By agreement, subject to regulatory approval, after JD Finance’s spinoff deal is pleted. 3. 44% equity and convertible bonds equivalent to 11% stake. All numbers are as of July 2017. Source: Company data, piled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Future of Finance: The Rise of China FinTech August 7, 2017 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 10 Sizing the addressable market: Untapped consumer demand Thirdparty payment TAM by 2020E: Consumptionrelate d TPV: US$ Revenue/fee pool: US$11bn Inter lending TAM by 2020E: Consumer credit (excl. mortgages) balance: US$480bn SME loan balance: US$284bn Investing TAM by 2020E: Financial asset under management: US$ n We see underperated markets for underse rved consumers in three core businesses of traditional financial se rvices: payment, lending and investing… Payment: We focus on payment in the rest of this report. Whilst we estimate that the TPV of consumptionrelated thirdparty payment will reach US$ () by 2020E from US$ (Rmb13trn) in 20xx and the annual revenue/fee pool to be US$11bn (), we also highlight the importance of payment services to gain customer account relationships as well as transaction data, which in turn offer payment panies opportunities to tap into consumer lending and investing. Our analysis is based on the following key assumptions. 1) By 2020E, 68% of the retail consumption would be processed by payment panies, from 40% in 20xx. This assumes that China?s digitization of money by 2020 reaches a similar level of US in 20xx. This implies that China would need to acplish in 4 years what took US 14 years (20xx20xx). 2) We see further downward pressure on the take rate in the next few years, given the regulatory tightening, introduction of the new clearing house, and more petition from players in other industries trying to enter the payment space. We are also aware of a couple of caveats of our method. Please find the details in page 56. Lending: We estimate the consumer lending opportunity will be driven by the (still) fast consumption growth as well as the large underserved cohort including rural workers, migrant workers, 37mn college students as well as some of the blue collar workers. We forecast total balance outstanding of consumer credit (excl. mortgages) to grow from US$841bn () in 20xx to US$ (Rmb13trn) in 2020E, among which inter lending (incl. P2P and consumer finance from inter giants) to increase from US$100bn (Rmb691bn) to US$480bn (). China?s consumer credit is significantly underperated at 7% of GDP vs 20% in the US. In particular we see untapped market in 1) subprimeborrower cash and consumption loans。 and 2) smallticket consumption loans. The core of a lending business is to price the credit and liquidity risks. We see significant potential value added for bigdatabased credit pricing to traditional lending services. However this is yet to be tested over time and through cycles. We also believe that 1) the ultimate number of winners may be much smaller than the vast number of disruptors who claim to own the best algorithm already。 and 2) A winwin scenario for incumbents and disruptors is more likely than a disruptive one, given the nature of cumbersome capital, liquidity and regulatory requirements of a lending business may not fit the aspirations of a tech pany. In addition, we also see a US$284bn TAM for underserved SMEs through inter lending by 2020E. Investing: We forecast China?s total financial asset under management should increase from US$ or Rmb57trn (incl. Rmb16trn bank wealth management products which is more of a savings product) in 20xx to US$ or Rmb82trn in 2020E, driven by Chinese households? fast wealth accumulation as well as potentially higher wealth allocation to financial assets. We see opportunities for FinTech panies in 1) distribution of financial products。 and 2) ArtificialIntelligencebased (AIbased) investing advisory services. Incumbent asset managers have also been investing/acquiring AIbased service and expanding online distribution channels and we still see great uncertainty around final investing market structure. Future of Finance: The Rise of China FinTech August 7, 2017 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 11 Increase in noncash transactions 20xx 20xx Exhibit 2: We expect China?s digitization of money by 2020E to reach a similar level of US in 20xx. Exhibit 3: We estimate the consumptionrelated third party payment value to reach by 2020E. Share of noncash transactions as a % of total transactions in 20xx (xaxis) vs