【導讀】為什么整個世界都曾關注這些話題，又是什么因素使它迅速傳播？ArrivaloftheInter互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時代的到來。DeclineofInflation通貨膨漲率的下降。Hightechdominance高科技占主導地位。管體制進行結合的不同方案進行評估。

　　

【正文】 行借貸市場達到了創(chuàng)紀錄的金額。并且 1991年高收益率的公共債券發(fā)行為 1200億美元，新貸款額達 9170億美元！ ? But in spite of this, the interest in credit risk management only started off in late 1990s (1998 onwards), at a time when credit markets were exceptionally benign. 盡管如此，對信貸風險控制的關注也只是在 90年代后期信貸市場格外寬容的時期才出現(xiàn)（ 1998年以后）。 ? What has caused this interest in credit management? 什么原因產(chǎn)生的對信貸管理的關注？ ? I believe, the interest es more from pressures of the regulators, the emergence of trading markets for loans and the pursuit of ROE. 我認為，這種關注更多的是來自監(jiān)管方面的壓力，貸款交易市場的出現(xiàn)以及對 ROE的追求。 ? Thus petition, drive for diversification, liquidity and regulatory changes (risk based capital reqts) have stimulated new tools for credit risk management. 因此競爭、分散風險的動機、流動性和監(jiān)管的調整（依據(jù)風險的資本要求）促使出現(xiàn)新的信貸風險控制工具。 ? Structured finance transactions, such as collateralised mortgage obligations, and asset back securities. 結構性融資交易，如附加抵押要求，和資產(chǎn)擔保證券。 ? Exchanges and clearing houses 證券交易所和清算銀行 ? Credit derivatives a lender who does not want to assume the credit risk of an asset no longer has to sell the asset outright it can create a kind of insurance mechanism for transferring risk of default and even credit migration. We can go short on credit! 信貸衍生工具 –不想承擔某項資產(chǎn)信貸風險的借款人不再必須完全出售信貸資產(chǎn) – 能夠建立一種保險機制轉移違約風險甚至于信貸交流。我們可以空投信貸！ New transactions /New Risks 新的交易 / 新的風險 ? Derivatives this is not to say that total financial risk has increased, because derivatives are zero sum game. But derivatives require additional exposure to be monitored, and credit evaluation of additional risks. 衍生產(chǎn)品 – 不是說總的金融資產(chǎn)的風險增加了，因為衍生工具是風險平衡的交易。但是衍生產(chǎn)品需要監(jiān)控額外的風險，以及對額外的風險進行信用評估。 ? Emergence of technology 技術創(chuàng)新的出現(xiàn) New transactions /New Risks 新的交易 / 新的風險 ? Thus credit culture and lending strategies go through a rethink and redesigned. 所以信貸文化和借貸策略要重新認識和重新設計。 ? In a credit card ABS, imagine the number of entities participating in the transaction. The transaction includes an originator, a seller, a trustee and a guarantor. These form the total credit risk and meshed within is market risk. 在一項信用卡相關的資產(chǎn)擔保證券交易中要設想一下交易關聯(lián)各方的數(shù)量。交易包括發(fā)起人、出售方、托管方和擔保人。這些形成了總的信貸風險。 相互作用即為市場風險。 ? Global economy is a reality. Receivables from a credit card issued in Indonesia is purchased by a fund in New York and sold to a HNWI in Zurich! 全球經(jīng)濟是實實在在的。一張印尼信用卡的應收款被紐約的一個基金購買然后再賣給蘇黎士的 HNWI！ Today,Credit Risk is Like Milk 今天，信貸風險就像牛奶 In the dairy, milk from a cow is first separated into ponents and then reconstituted into various grades to suit the consumer tastes: low fat, high fat, light cream etc… Likewise, credit risk can be segmented and redistributed to avoid the possibility that an entire issue will be downgrade because of poor performance in an isolated segment. The transaction is partitioned into separate, deposed the risk and repackaged to suit difference types of investors. 在牧場，奶牛產(chǎn)的牛奶首先被分離成不同的成份，然后再配制出適應消費者口味的不同等級的牛奶：低脂奶，高脂奶，清淡奶等等 … 同樣，信貸風險可以分成不同的類別并且重新分配以避免因為某一類別表現(xiàn)不佳而使整個貸款降低等級的可能性。交易被分割成相互獨立的，風險得到分解并重新組合以適應不同類型的投資者。 Overlapping concepts underpinning different kinds of risk 重疊的概念支持不同種類的風險 Operational 操作 MR 市場風險 Legal 法律 CP Risk Culture 風險文化 Skills and Tools技能與手段 Radar Chart for control of trade 交易管理圖 Current Deal Counterparty 交易對手 Mgmt Involvement 管理人員參與 Sophistication of Instrument 單據(jù)復雜性 Currency Risk 貨幣風險 Interest Rate Risk 利率風險 System of Limits 額度體制 Country Risk 國別風險 Legal Risk Limit 法律風險限制 Maturity of Market 市場成熟度 Nightmares are 惡夢在于 ? Cross borders and cross currency money flows 跨境及貨幣兌換現(xiàn)金流 ? Derivatives makes leveraging difficult to resist 衍生工具使杠桿作用難以抵御 ? Off balance sheet instrument and all its plexity….表外單據(jù)及其復雜性 …. And finally, may I present a possible meltdown. Imagine it starts with : The Japanese government, banks, insurance panies hold USD500 bn in US TBs. Were they to liquidate … then a similar 1929!? 最后，請允許我提出一種可能的毀滅性情景。設想它是這樣開使的：日本政府、銀行、保險公司持有 5000億美元的美國國債，他們能夠變現(xiàn) … 然后類似 1929年??？ And I am still learning ……. Thank you 并且我仍在研究 … 謝謝各位