【導(dǎo)讀】為什么整個(gè)世界都曾關(guān)注這些話題，又是什么因素使它迅速傳播？ArrivaloftheInter互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時(shí)代的到來(lái)。DeclineofInflation通貨膨漲率的下降。Hightechdominance高科技占主導(dǎo)地位。管體制進(jìn)行結(jié)合的不同方案進(jìn)行評(píng)估。

　　

【正文】 行借貸市場(chǎng)達(dá)到了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的金額。并且 1991年高收益率的公共債券發(fā)行為 1200億美元，新貸款額達(dá) 9170億美元！ ? But in spite of this, the interest in credit risk management only started off in late 1990s (1998 onwards), at a time when credit markets were exceptionally benign. 盡管如此，對(duì)信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制的關(guān)注也只是在 90年代后期信貸市場(chǎng)格外寬容的時(shí)期才出現(xiàn)（ 1998年以后）。 ? What has caused this interest in credit management? 什么原因產(chǎn)生的對(duì)信貸管理的關(guān)注？ ? I believe, the interest es more from pressures of the regulators, the emergence of trading markets for loans and the pursuit of ROE. 我認(rèn)為，這種關(guān)注更多的是來(lái)自監(jiān)管方面的壓力，貸款交易市場(chǎng)的出現(xiàn)以及對(duì) ROE的追求。 ? Thus petition, drive for diversification, liquidity and regulatory changes (risk based capital reqts) have stimulated new tools for credit risk management. 因此競(jìng)爭(zhēng)、分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的動(dòng)機(jī)、流動(dòng)性和監(jiān)管的調(diào)整（依據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的資本要求）促使出現(xiàn)新的信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制工具。 ? Structured finance transactions, such as collateralised mortgage obligations, and asset back securities. 結(jié)構(gòu)性融資交易，如附加抵押要求，和資產(chǎn)擔(dān)保證券。 ? Exchanges and clearing houses 證券交易所和清算銀行 ? Credit derivatives a lender who does not want to assume the credit risk of an asset no longer has to sell the asset outright it can create a kind of insurance mechanism for transferring risk of default and even credit migration. We can go short on credit! 信貸衍生工具 –不想承擔(dān)某項(xiàng)資產(chǎn)信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的借款人不再必須完全出售信貸資產(chǎn) – 能夠建立一種保險(xiǎn)機(jī)制轉(zhuǎn)移違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)甚至于信貸交流。我們可以空投信貸！ New transactions /New Risks 新的交易 / 新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ? Derivatives this is not to say that total financial risk has increased, because derivatives are zero sum game. But derivatives require additional exposure to be monitored, and credit evaluation of additional risks. 衍生產(chǎn)品 – 不是說(shuō)總的金融資產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加了，因?yàn)檠苌ぞ呤秋L(fēng)險(xiǎn)平衡的交易。但是衍生產(chǎn)品需要監(jiān)控額外的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，以及對(duì)額外的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行信用評(píng)估。 ? Emergence of technology 技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的出現(xiàn) New transactions /New Risks 新的交易 / 新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ? Thus credit culture and lending strategies go through a rethink and redesigned. 所以信貸文化和借貸策略要重新認(rèn)識(shí)和重新設(shè)計(jì)。 ? In a credit card ABS, imagine the number of entities participating in the transaction. The transaction includes an originator, a seller, a trustee and a guarantor. These form the total credit risk and meshed within is market risk. 在一項(xiàng)信用卡相關(guān)的資產(chǎn)擔(dān)保證券交易中要設(shè)想一下交易關(guān)聯(lián)各方的數(shù)量。交易包括發(fā)起人、出售方、托管方和擔(dān)保人。這些形成了總的信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 相互作用即為市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 ? Global economy is a reality. Receivables from a credit card issued in Indonesia is purchased by a fund in New York and sold to a HNWI in Zurich! 全球經(jīng)濟(jì)是實(shí)實(shí)在在的。一張印尼信用卡的應(yīng)收款被紐約的一個(gè)基金購(gòu)買然后再賣給蘇黎士的 HNWI！ Today,Credit Risk is Like Milk 今天，信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)就像牛奶 In the dairy, milk from a cow is first separated into ponents and then reconstituted into various grades to suit the consumer tastes: low fat, high fat, light cream etc… Likewise, credit risk can be segmented and redistributed to avoid the possibility that an entire issue will be downgrade because of poor performance in an isolated segment. The transaction is partitioned into separate, deposed the risk and repackaged to suit difference types of investors. 在牧場(chǎng)，奶牛產(chǎn)的牛奶首先被分離成不同的成份，然后再配制出適應(yīng)消費(fèi)者口味的不同等級(jí)的牛奶：低脂奶，高脂奶，清淡奶等等 … 同樣，信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以分成不同的類別并且重新分配以避免因?yàn)槟骋活悇e表現(xiàn)不佳而使整個(gè)貸款降低等級(jí)的可能性。交易被分割成相互獨(dú)立的，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)得到分解并重新組合以適應(yīng)不同類型的投資者。 Overlapping concepts underpinning different kinds of risk 重疊的概念支持不同種類的風(fēng)險(xiǎn) Operational 操作 MR 市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) Legal 法律 CP Risk Culture 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)文化 Skills and Tools技能與手段 Radar Chart for control of trade 交易管理圖 Current Deal Counterparty 交易對(duì)手 Mgmt Involvement 管理人員參與 Sophistication of Instrument 單據(jù)復(fù)雜性 Currency Risk 貨幣風(fēng)險(xiǎn) Interest Rate Risk 利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn) System of Limits 額度體制 Country Risk 國(guó)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn) Legal Risk Limit 法律風(fēng)險(xiǎn)限制 Maturity of Market 市場(chǎng)成熟度 Nightmares are 惡夢(mèng)在于 ? Cross borders and cross currency money flows 跨境及貨幣兌換現(xiàn)金流 ? Derivatives makes leveraging difficult to resist 衍生工具使杠桿作用難以抵御 ? Off balance sheet instrument and all its plexity….表外單據(jù)及其復(fù)雜性 …. And finally, may I present a possible meltdown. Imagine it starts with : The Japanese government, banks, insurance panies hold USD500 bn in US TBs. Were they to liquidate … then a similar 1929!? 最后，請(qǐng)?jiān)试S我提出一種可能的毀滅性情景。設(shè)想它是這樣開(kāi)使的：日本政府、銀行、保險(xiǎn)公司持有 5000億美元的美國(guó)國(guó)債，他們能夠變現(xiàn) … 然后類似 1929年！？ And I am still learning ……. Thank you 并且我仍在研究 … 謝謝各位