【正文】 日本銀行的例子 我們期望從兼并當(dāng)中獲得多少 ? ? Assets have gone up, but how has this affected banks’ portfolios? 資產(chǎn)增加了 , 但是對(duì)銀行的資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)有何影響 ? ? Take Mizhuo group 以瑞穗銀行為例 ? Combined assets $ trillion 合并資產(chǎn) – ? It makes a very large institution indeed, but the amounts of NPLs and of sour derivatives are also huge 的確產(chǎn)生了一個(gè)非常龐大的機(jī)構(gòu) , 但是不良貸款及令人失望的衍生產(chǎn)品的數(shù)量同樣是巨大的 ? A portfolio loaded with bad debts and many questionable bilateral derivatives contracts of 3 banks is a liability not an asset! 背負(fù)著大量壞帳以及三家銀行間問(wèn)題重重的雙邊衍生產(chǎn)品合同所構(gòu)成的組合形成了負(fù)債 ,不是資產(chǎn) Another example – Sumitomo and Sakura 另外一個(gè)例子 – 住友和櫻花 ? Computer systems were in chaos because the efforts to bine heterogeneous platforms have not given fruits 不同操作平臺(tái)合并的不成功曾造成了計(jì)算機(jī)系統(tǒng)的混亂 ? Then both have legacy – both belonged to powerful trading empires that have been rivals all their lives 雙方都有遺產(chǎn) – 雙方曾隸屬于強(qiáng)大的貿(mào)易帝國(guó)且一直相互為敵 ? Summary – Japan paralysis is one Capacity vs Willingness 小結(jié) – 日本偏癱癥是一個(gè)能力與愿望的較量 So what questions do we ask? 那么我們要問(wèn)什么問(wèn)題 ? ? Is this the right target? 這是正確的目標(biāo)嗎 ? ? What is the economic vision that justifies it? 怎樣用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的觀點(diǎn)來(lái)證明 ? ? Is the market going to like the deal? 市場(chǎng)會(huì)歡迎該筆交易嗎 ? ? How much stock price dilution? 股價(jià)會(huì)稀釋多少 ? ? What resources (and will) to make this work? 完成這項(xiàng)工作所需的資源有哪些 ? ? The argument that larger entities may find it easier to reconfigure their portfolio is less than half true. Indeed, divesting of operations and product lines which are unproductive or lack of strategic fit does not need to be done only after a merger. 那種較大的機(jī)構(gòu)更容易調(diào)整其資產(chǎn)組合的觀點(diǎn)其正確性不到一半 , 只是因?yàn)檫M(jìn)行了兼并就剝離缺乏生產(chǎn)能力的、或者與經(jīng)營(yíng)戰(zhàn)略不甚相符的經(jīng)營(yíng)和產(chǎn)品線確實(shí)沒(méi)有必要 ? And there is always the question of synergy – does Chase and Chemical merger – provides synergy? 而且存在凝聚力的問(wèn)題 – 大通和化工的合并 – 產(chǎn)生凝聚力嗎 ? Derivatives and NPLs are deadly 金融衍生產(chǎn)品和不良貸款是致命的 ? Losses from bad loans – as much as 50% of would be profit 不良貸款造成的損失 – 占可能產(chǎn)生的效益的 50% ? Daewoo had US$85bn in debts against US$65bn in assets 大禹公司 650億美元的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債達(dá)到 850億美元 ? Bankers assumed it had 57bn 銀行方面曾估計(jì)其負(fù)債為 570億美元 Derivatives are worst 金融衍生產(chǎn)品更糟糕 ? 1990 – trillion pared to GDP 而 GDP為 ? Or in derivatives for every 1 GDP 或每 1萬(wàn)億的 GDP就有 ? 1998 – 55 trillion pared to GDP 55萬(wàn)億 而 GDP為 ? Or for every 1 GDP!!!! 或每 1萬(wàn)億的 GDP就有 Derivative Losses – 1995 Asian Banks 金融衍生產(chǎn)品的損失亞洲的銀行 L o ss e s 損失 A ss e t s 資產(chǎn)S u m i t o m o 3 . 3 6 b n 5 2 4 b nN i p p o n T ru st 1 . 6 4 b n 1 7 b n1 0 B a n ks t o t a l l o ss e s 7 . 6 2 3 b n 5 8 9 . 3 (9 )Derivatives will continue to dominate the banking transactions. This is one of the most challenging (if not frightening trend!) 衍生產(chǎn)品將繼續(xù)在銀行交易中占主導(dǎo)地位。 ? The customer is rated BBB. The implied spread is 200 bp 客戶的評(píng)級(jí)為 BBB。s R i s k G ra d e 借款人風(fēng)險(xiǎn)級(jí)別 5L o a n M a t u ri t y 貸款期限 5 Ye a rs5 Ye a r l o s s ra t e (% ) 五年損失率 6 . 1 5 %C a p i t a l R a t i o (% ) 資本比率 8%T h re s h o l d R a t e o f R e t u rn (% ) 最低回報(bào)率 16%L o a n A m o u n t 貸款金額 1 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0C a p i t a l R e q u i re d 所需資本金 8 % x 1 m i o = 8 0 , 0 0 0Price build up 價(jià)格構(gòu)成 C h a rg e a t 1 6 % p a (0 . 1 6 x 8 0 k ) 1 2 , 8 0 0C o s t o f f u n d s 1 0 % F i x e d (1 0 % x 9 2 0 k ) 9 2 , 0 0 0A n n u a l l o s s p ro v i s i o n s (0 . 0 1 x 6 . 1 5 x 1 m i o / 5 ) 1 2 , 3 0 0Bre a k e v e n I n t e re s t I n c o m e (1 2 . 8 k + 9 2 k + 1 2 . 3 k ) 1 1 7 , 1 0 0L o a n I n t e re s t R a t e (1 1 7 k / 1 m i o ) 1 1 . 7 1 %M i n i m u m Sp re a d (1 1 . 7 1 1 0 . 0 0 ) 1 7 1 b p sIs this capital allocation correct? 這樣的資本分配正確嗎？ ? Yes, but 正確，但是 ? Drawback is that only expected loss is linked to the credit quality 弊端在于只有預(yù)期損失與信貸質(zhì)量有關(guān) ? And capital charge (8%) at 16% cost of equity may not be sufficient if loan default. 并且資本費(fèi)用（ 8%）按股本成本的 16%在貸款出現(xiàn)違約后不足以彌補(bǔ) ? At the rate of 17,100 ine (117,100 minus 100,000 funding cost) per 1,000,000 the ban