【導(dǎo)讀】波克夏海瑟崴股份有限公司。致Berkshire公司全體股東:. 首先，還是會(huì)計(jì)相關(guān)的議題，從去年年報(bào)開(kāi)始，會(huì)計(jì)原則要求保險(xiǎn)公司。資在資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表日的評(píng)價(jià)方式，從原先的成本與市價(jià)孰低法，改按公平。由於我們帳上的股票投資擁有大量的未實(shí)現(xiàn)利益，因此即便我們已提列?，F(xiàn)時(shí)應(yīng)該支付的估計(jì)所得稅負(fù)債，我們1978年及1979年的淨(jìng)值依然。大家都知道，我們持股60%的藍(lán)籌郵票業(yè)已併入Berkshire的合併報(bào)表。照現(xiàn)行會(huì)計(jì)原則規(guī)定，藍(lán)籌郵票的股票投資仍必須按照舊制-也就是成。法列示，換句話說(shuō)，以同一種價(jià)格買進(jìn)同一種股票，不同公司的會(huì)計(jì)評(píng)。就短期間而言，我們一向認(rèn)為營(yíng)業(yè)利益除以股東權(quán)。資按原始成本計(jì)算)所得出的比率，為衡量單一年度經(jīng)營(yíng)成果的最佳方。之所以不按市價(jià)計(jì)算的原因，是因?yàn)槿绱俗鰧⑹沟梅帜该磕甏蠓▌?dòng)而。義，舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，股票價(jià)格大幅下跌造成股東權(quán)益跟著下滑，其結(jié)果將使。將使得營(yíng)業(yè)利益率變得失色，所以我們?nèi)詫雌诔醯墓蓶|權(quán)益(股票投。計(jì))為基準(zhǔn)來(lái)衡量經(jīng)營(yíng)績(jī)效。

　　

【正文】 e blissfully unaware until they are in over their heads。 much reinsurance business involves an exceptionally “l(fā)ong tail”, a characteristic that allows catastrophic current loss experience to fester undetected for many years). It will be hard for us to be a whole lot smarter than the crowd and thus our reinsurance activity may decline substantially during the projected prolonged period of extraordinary petition. 由 Gee Young 領(lǐng)軍的再保險(xiǎn)部門(mén)，在將投資收益併入考量後，持續(xù)地給予我們 滿意的成績(jī)，惟核保部門(mén)的績(jī)效仍有待改進(jìn)。事實(shí)上，未來(lái)產(chǎn)業(yè)的前景並不看好，由 於外來(lái)資金持續(xù)大舉投入這一行業(yè)，讓競(jìng)爭(zhēng)變得更為激烈，保費(fèi)水準(zhǔn)一降再降的結(jié)果， 使得新進(jìn)者勇於承擔(dān)著極高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)而不自知，直到真正出事時(shí)早已為時(shí)已晚，而更不幸 的是，這類業(yè)務(wù)的有效期間通常長(zhǎng)達(dá)許多年，而我們自認(rèn)並不比其他同業(yè)聰明到哪裡 去的情況下，我們只有選擇暫時(shí)退出競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈的市場(chǎng)觀望，業(yè)務(wù)量下滑的結(jié)果將無(wú)可 避免。 The Homestate operation was disappointing in 1979. Excellent results again were turned in by Gee Billings at Texas United Insurance Company, winner of the annual award for the low loss ratio among Homestate panies, and Floyd Taylor at Kansas Fire and Casualty Company. But several of the other operations, particularly Cornhusker Casualty Company, our first and largest Homestate operation and historically a winner, had poor underwriting results which were accentuated by data processing, administrative and personnel problems. We have made some major mistakes in reanizing our data processing activities, and those mistakes will not be cured immediately or without cost. However, John Ringwalt has thrown himself into the task of getting things straightened out and we have confidence that he, aided by several strong people who recently have been brought aboard, will succeed. Homestate 1979 的營(yíng)運(yùn)則令人感到失望， Gee Billings 負(fù)責(zé)的德州聯(lián)合保險(xiǎn)再 度以低損失率獲得冠軍，至於其他分支的營(yíng)運(yùn)，尤其是 Cornhusker產(chǎn)險(xiǎn) Homestate 最大的營(yíng)運(yùn)單位，過(guò)去一向是傳統(tǒng)的贏家，去年不但核?？?jī)效不佳，同時(shí)還有資料處 理、行政以及人員方面的問(wèn)題，我們?cè)谥匦抡碣Y料處理犯下了幾件大錯(cuò)，而且未能 及時(shí)改進(jìn)，然而目前 John Ringwalt 已經(jīng)投入火線全力導(dǎo)正錯(cuò)誤，而我們也相信在幾 位新上任且頗具才幹同仁的協(xié)助下，應(yīng)該可以順利達(dá)成任務(wù)。 Our performance in Worker’s Compensation was far, far better than we had any right to expect at the beginning of 1979. We had a very favorable climate in California for the achievement of good results but, beyond this, Milt Thornton at Cypress Insurance Company and Frank DeNardo at National Indemnity’s California Worker’s Compensation operation both performed in a simply outstanding manner. We have admitted and with good reason some mistakes on the acquisition front, but the Cypress purchase has turned out to be an absolute gem. Milt Thornton, like Phil Liesche, follows the policy of sticking with business that he understands and wants, without giving consideration to the impact on volume. As a result, he has an outstanding book of business and an exceptionally well functioning group of employees. Frank DeNardo has straightened out the mess he inherited in Los Angeles in a manner far beyond our expectations, producing savings measured in seven figures. He now can begin to build on a sound base. 我們勞工退休金的表現(xiàn)遠(yuǎn)優(yōu)於 1979 年初可能的預(yù)期，加州今年的天候相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)，這 相當(dāng)有利我們的營(yíng)運(yùn)，除此之外，賽普路斯的 Milt Thornton以及國(guó)家產(chǎn)險(xiǎn)加州勞工 退休金部門(mén)的 Frank Denardo 的表現(xiàn)也很好，我們確實(shí)在購(gòu)併面犯了些錯(cuò)誤，但賽 普路斯事後被證明是塊寶，而 Milt Thornton 就像 Phil Liesche 一樣，不以追求業(yè)務(wù) 量為依歸，堅(jiān)持固守自己了解且熟悉的業(yè)務(wù)，這使得他擁有絕佳的營(yíng)運(yùn)記錄以及運(yùn)作 良好的組織，另外 Frank Denardo 已經(jīng)完全導(dǎo)正他在加州所接手的爛攤子，節(jié)省的 成果甚至超乎我們預(yù)期達(dá)到七位數(shù)，有了好的開(kāi)始，他現(xiàn)在可以進(jìn)一步建立穩(wěn)固的基 礎(chǔ)。 At yearend we entered the specialized area of surety reinsurance under the management of Chet Noble. At least initially, this operation will be relatively small since our policy will be to seek client panies who appreciate the need for a long term “partnership” relationship with their reinsurers. We are pleased by the quality of the insurers we have attracted, and hope to add several more of the best primary writers as our financial strength and stability bee better known in the surety field. 去年年底在 Chet Noble 的管理下，我們正式進(jìn)入保證再保險(xiǎn)這類專門(mén)領(lǐng)域，初期這 類的業(yè)務(wù)量不會(huì)太大，因?yàn)槲覀兊牟呗允窍扰c有意願(yuàn)的客戶建立起長(zhǎng)期的夥伴關(guān)係， 對(duì)於目前上門(mén)的保險(xiǎn)客戶素質(zhì)，我們感到相當(dāng)滿意，也期望我們穩(wěn)健的財(cái)務(wù)實(shí)力在保 證業(yè)務(wù)界建立起名聲後，能夠吸引更多優(yōu)質(zhì)的保險(xiǎn)公司加入。 The conventional wisdom is that insurance underwriting overall will be poor in 1980, but that rates will start to firm in a year or so, leading to a turn in the cycle some time in 1981. We disagree with this view. Present interest rates encourage the obtaining of business at underwriting loss levels formerly regarded as totally unacceptable. Managers decry the folly of underwriting at a loss to obtain investment ine, but we believe that many will. Thus we expect that petition will create a new threshold of tolerance for underwriting losses, and that bined ratios will average higher in the future than in the past. 從前大家認(rèn)為核保績(jī)效通常會(huì)一年好、一年壞， 1980 年若差一點(diǎn)，那麼 1981年應(yīng) 該會(huì)好轉(zhuǎn)。但我們卻不這麼認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)在的低利率環(huán)境使得業(yè)者會(huì)傾向犧牲部份核保損 失，再試圖從投資收益上彌補(bǔ)回來(lái)，這在過(guò)去高利率的時(shí)代是不可能發(fā)生的。許多同 業(yè)高喊殺價(jià)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)愚不可及，但實(shí)際上跟進(jìn)者卻不少，因此我們判斷，同業(yè)忍受承保損 失的限度將較過(guò)去提高，導(dǎo)致競(jìng)爭(zhēng)越加激烈，綜合比率將因此提高。 To some extent, the day of reckoning has been postponed because of marked reduction in the frequency of auto accidents probably brought on in major part by changes in driving habits induced by higher gas prices. In our opinion, if the habits hadn’t changed, auto insurance rates would have been very little higher and underwriting results would have been much worse. This dosage of serendipity won’t last indefinitely. 某種程度而言，這樣的預(yù)測(cè)發(fā)生的時(shí)點(diǎn)將略微延後，主要是由於車禍?zhǔn)鹿拾l(fā)生率明顯 的下滑，可能的原因在於油價(jià)上漲導(dǎo)致駕駛習(xí)慣改變，我們的看法是多虧駕駛習(xí)慣發(fā) 生改變，否則在保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率沒(méi)有提高的情況下，核保結(jié)果肯定會(huì)惡化，當(dāng)然這種僥倖的 意外情況肯定不會(huì)一直維持下去。 Our forecast is for an average bined ratio for the industry in the 105 area over the next five years. While we have a high degree of confidence that certain of our operations will do considerably better than average, it will be a challenge to us to operate below the industry figure. You can get a lot of surprises in insurance. 我們的估計(jì)是未來(lái)五年產(chǎn)險(xiǎn)綜合比率平均將會(huì)落在 105 左右，雖然我們有相當(dāng)程度的 信心，旗下部份 的業(yè)務(wù)應(yīng)該會(huì)比平均數(shù)好，但總的來(lái)說(shuō)，還是一項(xiàng)艱難的挑戰(zhàn)，保險(xiǎn) 業(yè)總是了充滿意外。 Nevertheless, we