【文章內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介】 tire project life,NPV of FCF during the life of the debt,Annual debt service (principal and interest payments)年償債額（本金+利息）,Other Important Indicators其他重要指標(biāo),Debt service coverage ratio債務(wù)償付比率 Loan life coverage ratio債務(wù)期內(nèi)的債務(wù)償付比率 Project life coverage ratio項(xiàng)目期內(nèi)的債務(wù)償付比率 Debttoequity ratio權(quán)益負(fù)債率,=,=,=,=,Outstanding debt 總負(fù)債,Annual FCF （每年現(xiàn)金流）,Outstanding debt 總負(fù)債,Outstanding equity 所有者權(quán)益,Outstanding debt 總負(fù)債,?,or NPVP2 = CF0 + + + ???,Decreasing Debt/Equity Ratio遞減的權(quán)益負(fù)債率 For calculating NPV for a project within a company or for a company’s valuation, generally WACC (weighted average cost of capital) is used. 當(dāng)計(jì)算一個(gè)公司的某個(gè)項(xiàng)目的凈現(xiàn)值或者計(jì)算一個(gè)公司的價(jià)值時(shí)，通常是用加權(quán)平均資金成本 In case of project finance the outstanding debt constantly declines and debt/equity ratio keeps changing throughout the project life. 在進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目融資時(shí)，負(fù)債總是不斷降低的，在整個(gè)項(xiàng)目期間，負(fù)債權(quán)益率也始終保持變化。,NPVP1 = CF0 + + + ??? +,[1 + (Rf + βa x Rp)],NOPAT2 + tKDD2,NOPAT1 + tKDD1,[1 + (Rf + βa x Rp)],(1 + WACCn),CFn,(1 + WACC2),CF2,(1 + WACC1),CF1,Issues on Cost of Capital 資金成本I,1,2,n,in which weight of debt is constantly adjusted如果負(fù)債比重不斷降低： WACC = (weight debt? x cost debt)(1 – T) + (weight capital? x cost equity) 加權(quán)平均資金成本=(負(fù)債比率*債務(wù)成本)(1稅率)+(權(quán)益比率*權(quán)益成本),1,2,[NOPAT: Net Operating Profit After Tax稅后凈收益, t: tax rate稅率, KD: debt cost債務(wù)成本, D: debt outstanding負(fù)債, Rf: risk free rate無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率, βa: asset beta, Rp: risk premium],Tax shield Adjustment 稅盾調(diào)整,(1 + WACC),CFn,(1 + WACC),CF2,(1 + WACC),CF1,NPVC = CF0 + + + ??? +,1,2,n,Based on: Capital Cash Flows: A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Cash Flows, Richard S. Ruback, 2000,?,Issues on Cost of Capital資金成本 II,Reliability of CAPM in Project Finance Situation資本資產(chǎn)計(jì)價(jià)模型在項(xiàng)目融資中的可靠性 Both NPVP1 and NPVP2 in the previous slide involve the concept of CAPM (capital asset pricing model) to get debt, equity and asset beta, which would not work appropriately in case of project finance for several reasons:在上例中應(yīng)用了資本資產(chǎn)訂價(jià)模型的凈現(xiàn)值計(jì)算可能不能在項(xiàng)目融資中準(zhǔn)確應(yīng)用，原因如下 A country where project is located may not have integrated/efficient market 項(xiàng)目所在的國(guó)家可能不是一個(gè)綜合/有效率的市場(chǎng) Data would be not available for market risk premium 由于市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)而無(wú)法得到數(shù)據(jù) An ideal instrument represents the risk free rate would not be available 無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率可能無(wú)法得到 CAPM may not able to incorporate all risks associated with the project 資本資產(chǎn)定價(jià)模型可能無(wú)法將所有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都和模型關(guān)聯(lián)起來(lái) CAPM does not consider asymmetric down side risks模型沒(méi)有考慮不對(duì)稱的下跌風(fēng)險(xiǎn) Required return on debt may different between construction and operating periods 負(fù)債的要求回報(bào)期間可能與建設(shè)和運(yùn)營(yíng)期間不一致 What if there is single purchaser located in other country?如果僅有的采購(gòu)方在另一個(gè)國(guó)家 What to do?怎么辦,Based on: Project Finance, Aditya Agarwal and Sandeep Kaul,?,3.2 Cash Flow Analysis現(xiàn)金流分析 II (Individual Cash Flows 單個(gè)現(xiàn)金流),?,Analysis of Individual Cash Flows 單個(gè)現(xiàn)金流分析,Free Cash Flow 自由現(xiàn)金流 (FCF),Year年,Sales Revenue銷售收入,Year年,Input cost投入成本,Operating cost運(yùn)營(yíng)成本,Taxes稅,Net investment凈投資 (in maintenance),Construciton Costs建造成本,FCF used for NPV (IRR) analysis 自由現(xiàn)金流用于凈現(xiàn)值（內(nèi)部收益率）分析,Anatomy of FCF for project finance項(xiàng)目融資中的自由現(xiàn)金流,?,Construction施工 I,Construction contracts建造合同 Fixed price contract固定價(jià)格合同 (high premium/low risk, payment based on progress高溢價(jià)/低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，按進(jìn)度付款) Turnkey contract整套承包合同 The contractor accepts full responsibility for delivering a fully operational facility on a datecertain, fixed price basis.承建商以固定的價(jià)格，負(fù)責(zé)所有的建設(shè)施工 EPC contract 合同能源管理(engineering, procurement, and construction contract設(shè)計(jì)，采購(gòu)，施工合同) Cost plus fee contract成本加固定費(fèi)用合同 (low premium/high risk, frequent payments低溢價(jià)/高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，頻繁付款) Cost plus fee contract with maximum price and incentive fee成本加固定費(fèi)用最高價(jià)格加獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)費(fèi)用合同,Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2001,?,Construction施工 II,Major risks主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn) I Increase in construction cost增加施工成本 (cost overrun成本超支) Unavailability of sufficient funds to complete construction沒(méi)有足夠資金完成施工 Inability to the project company to pay increased debt service during operation, even if funded by debt公司在運(yùn)營(yíng)期間，即使通過(guò)借新債也無(wú)法償還不斷增高的債務(wù)本息 Risk mitigation風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解 Turnkey contract整套承包合同 Contractual undertakings—infusion of additional equity, standby equity participants, contingency tranche in construction loan, standby cost overrun funding agreements引入新的所有者權(quán)益，備用的權(quán)益投資者，建設(shè)貸款應(yīng)急部分，備用成本超支基金協(xié)議 Escrow funds, contingency account代管基金，意外準(zhǔn)備金賬戶 Delay in completion延期完工 Increase in construction costs and in debt service costs增加施工成本和負(fù)債成本 Delay in the scheduled flow of revenue to cover debt service and expenses延誤了收入進(jìn)度，而無(wú)法支付債務(wù)和費(fèi)用 Breach of project contracts, such as fuel supply or offtake違反了項(xiàng)目合同，例如燃油供給或者生產(chǎn)包銷協(xié)議 Risk mitigation風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解 Turnkey contract整套承包合同 Stated milestones tied to construction loan contract確立與在施工借款合同相符的里程碑,Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2001,?,Construction施工 III,Major risks主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn) II Project performance at less guaranteed levels項(xiàng)目績(jī)效難以保證 Breach of offtake contract/decrease in project revenue生產(chǎn)包銷協(xié)議的違約/項(xiàng)目收入的降低 Increase in maintenance costs and input/utility costs增加了維護(hù)成本和購(gòu)買/能源成本 Inability to the project company to repay debt項(xiàng)目公司無(wú)法償付債務(wù) Risk mitigation風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解 Performance liquidated damage to cover the loss用績(jī)效違約金來(lái)補(bǔ)償損失 Third party guarantees such as letter of credit or performance bond (payment bond), when financially weak contractors當(dāng)施工方財(cái)務(wù)上困難時(shí)，可采取第三方保證例如信用證或履約保函（支付保函） Bid bond/warranty bond/retention bond投標(biāo)保函/質(zhì)量擔(dān)保/留置金保函 Other risks其它風(fēng)險(xiǎn) Site acquisition and construction related facilities項(xiàng)目調(diào)度和施工設(shè)備 Equipment, building material, and utility supply設(shè)備，建造材料，電力供應(yīng) Labor/environmental issues 人工/環(huán)境問(wèn)題 Force majeure risks不可抗力風(fēng)險(xiǎn) Risk mitigation風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解 All risk contractor’s riks insurance承包商的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)保險(xiǎn),Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2001,?,Offtake Purchase 生產(chǎn)包銷采購(gòu)I,Offtake agreements生產(chǎn)包銷合同 Takeorpay contract 照付不議合同(a form of unconditional guarantee一種無(wú)條件擔(dān)保) the purchaser is required to pay for a certain amount (fixed cost), even the product is not delivered. The rest of the amount (variable cost) will be paid if the purchaser wants to buy. 即便貨物還沒(méi)有發(fā)出，采購(gòu)方也被要求支付一定金額