【正文】 Project cash flow現(xiàn)金流預(yù)測 A security interest in the cash flows generated by the project under longterm offtake agreements.有長期生產(chǎn)包銷協(xié)議的項目產(chǎn)生的擔保利益 Accomplished through a cash collateral account in which offtake purchaser pays all payments into the account established by the lenders.生產(chǎn)包銷采購方將所有款項都支付到由借款方設(shè)立的現(xiàn)金抵押賬戶中 Offshore accounts/escrow accounts離岸賬戶/代管帳戶 Ownership interests所有者權(quán)益 Pledge of ownership interests所有者權(quán)益抵押 Voting trust表決權(quán)信托 Negative pledges限制抵押 An agreement under which the project company will not create, directly or indirectly, any security interest, lien or encumbrance in its assets for the benefit of any other entity.在這種協(xié)議下，項目公司的資產(chǎn)不會產(chǎn)生直接或者間接的擔保利益，留置權(quán)，置押權(quán)被其他公司享受到。 Deterrent against strategic behavior by the third parties可以威懾第三方的戰(zhàn)略行動 Sponsor can involve the critical parties for the project, including the public sector, as shareholders to prevent future conflict.發(fā)起人可以把重要的合作方，例如公共部門納入項目中，例如作為項目的股東，這樣可以防止將來的沖突 By involving international banks and multilateral agencies whose interest is solely in cashflow maximization by the project, the sponsor may prevent harmful action by the host government.發(fā)起人可以把國際銀行，國際代理納入項目公司，他們的利益會由項目而達到最大化，這樣發(fā)起人就有可能防止當?shù)卣挠泻π袨?Based on: The Economic Motivations for Using Project Finance, Benjamin C. Esty, 2003,?,PF vs. Corporate Finance 項目融資 vs. 公司金融,Project Finance項目融資 Limited or nonrecourse資源有限或者沒有資源 Simple cashflow structure produced from one independent waste asset由單一資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生的單一現(xiàn)金流結(jié)構(gòu) Highleverage at beginning, but getting lower toward the end of the debt repayment初期較高的財務(wù)杠桿， 但在債務(wù)償付之后逐降低 Relatively a few layers of debt and equity structure (simple ownership)相對較少的債務(wù)和權(quán)益結(jié)構(gòu)（單一所有權(quán)） Applied to projects attaining a scale of economy適用于達到規(guī)模經(jīng)濟的項目,Corporate Finance公司金融 Full recourse充足資源 Complicated cashflow structure produced from a set of various, replaceable profit making projects由一系列可替代的盈利項目產(chǎn)生的復(fù)雜的現(xiàn)金流結(jié)構(gòu) Leverage depends on a company’s target capital structure財務(wù)杠桿取決于公司的目標資本結(jié)構(gòu) Various layers of debt and equity structure (complicated ownership)較多層次的債券和權(quán)益結(jié)構(gòu)（復(fù)雜的所有權(quán)） Applied to all profit making business types適用于所有盈利企業(yè)類型,?,Typical Structure of Conventional PF 典型的傳統(tǒng)項目融資結(jié)構(gòu),Offtake purchaser 包銷商,Input supplier 投入供應(yīng)商,Operator 運營商,Project company 項目公司 (SPE),Contractors 承包商,Lenders 借款人,Sponsors 發(fā)起人,Central/local Government 中央/地方政府,Concession Authority 特許權(quán)許可,Insurers 保險公司,Shareholders Agreement 股東協(xié)議,Equity所有者權(quán)益,Loan Agreement借款合同,Debt借款,Construction Agreement 建造合同,License/permit專利權(quán)/許可權(quán),Concession Agreement特許權(quán)合同,Insurance保險,Offtake agreement 包銷協(xié)議,Supply agreement 供應(yīng)合同,Operation/maintenance Agreement 運營/維護合同,Power/utility電力/動力,Multilateral/bilateral agencies 多方/雙方代理,Equipment suppliers 設(shè)備供應(yīng)商,?,2. Credit Risks in Project Finance 項目融資中的信貸風險,?,Fire Flooding Earthquake Volcano Disease,Strike Insurrection Terrorism War,Force Majeure Events,Political Risks,Corruption Legal/regulatory irregularities License/Permit Concession Taxes Equityholding Currency inconvertibility Expatriation Preemption/priority Breach of contract Foreign worker limitation Law enforcement,Construction Facility site Equipment Technology Offtake Input Operation Utility Collateral Mineral reserves Reporting accuracy,Contractual Risks,Commercial Risks,Creeping Expropriation,Outright Expropriation,Natural Disaster,Expropriation Confiscation Nationalization,War amp。,Based on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008,?,(1 + r),Internal Rate of Return內(nèi)部收益率 (IRR),Method方法 IRR is defined as the discount rate that assumes NPV is equal to zero. 內(nèi)部收益率是能使項目的凈現(xiàn)值等于零時的折現(xiàn)率。,Based on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008,?,Scenario Analysis情景分析 I,Method方法 Scenario analysis examines a set of scenarios under the assumption that each scenario occurs with a certain probability 情景分析研究一系列情景，假設(shè)每種情景發(fā)生都有一定的可能性 Example 1: sales price would drop by 6% with 25% probability for worst case scenario.例1：最差情景發(fā)生的概率為25%，銷售單價降低6%。當PI=0時，意味著凈現(xiàn)值=0并且修正內(nèi)部收益率=最低預(yù)期回報率。Project Finance and Credit Risk Management 項目融資及 信貸風險管理,?,Project Finance Overview項目融資簡介 Credit Risks in Project Finance項目融資中的信貸風險 Credit Risk Management (Financial Risks)信貸風險管理 (財務(wù)風險) Cash Flow Analysis現(xiàn)金流分析 I (NPV and IRR凈現(xiàn)值和內(nèi)部收益率) Cash Flow Analysis現(xiàn)金流分析 II (Individual Cash Flows單個現(xiàn)金流) Stress Testing/Simulation壓力測試/仿真模擬 Credit Risk Management (Political Risks)信貸風險管理 (政治風險),Table of Contents目錄,?,Project Finance Overview 項目融資概況,?,Basel’s Definition of PF (in short) 項目融資的Basel定義,A simple cashflow stream簡單的現(xiàn)金流量 The value of PF relies on a simple cashflow stream generated by a single project and the collateral value of the project assets: the source of the cashflow may be a single buyer or consumers.項目融資的價值在于簡單的現(xiàn)金流量產(chǎn)生于單一的項目，以及項目資產(chǎn)的抵押價值：現(xiàn)金流的來源可能是一個買家或者客戶。當PI1時，該項目應(yīng)該被批準。 Example 2: operating cost would be reduced by 2% with 25% probability for best case scenario.例2：最好情景發(fā)生的概率為25%，運營成本降低了2%。 Implication含義 IRR is useful when investors assess the project against their hurdle rate, which is a cost of capital. IRR適用于當投資者衡量項目是否能達到他們的最低預(yù)期回報率。 The sponsor can preserve corporate debt capacity.發(fā)起人可以保障公司的借債能力 To create asset specific governance structure可以建立明確的資產(chǎn)管理結(jié)構(gòu) Separate legal incorporation, which assumes a specific project and few growth options, reduces both the cost of monitoring managerial actions and assessing performance, and wasteful expenditures and suboptimal reinvestment.單獨設(shè)立法人企業(yè)，各自承擔一個項目，降低了各自的監(jiān)管，評價成本，節(jié)約了浪費的費用，和次優(yōu)再投資。 Inflation rate通貨膨脹率 Risk allocation風險分配 Cash flow projection現(xiàn)金流預(yù)測,Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2001,?,Collateral抵押 I,The “blanket” lien統(tǒng)括留置權(quán) The blanket lien covers all the assets of the project company, including real (unmovable) and personal (movable), tangible and intangible.統(tǒng)括留置權(quán)涵蓋項目公司的所有資產(chǎn)，包括不動產(chǎn)，個人（可移動）資產(chǎn)，有形和無形資產(chǎn)。,Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2001,?,Collateral抵押 II,Personal (movable) property個人（可移動）資產(chǎn) Intangible assets有形資產(chǎn) Permits, licenses and concessions許可權(quán)，許可證，特許權(quán) Contrac