【正文】 nt funds to complete construction沒有足夠資金完成施工 Inability to the project company to pay increased debt service during operation, even if funded by debt公司在運(yùn)營期間，即使通過借新債也無法償還不斷增高的債務(wù)本息 Risk mitigation風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解 Turnkey contract整套承包合同 Contractual undertakings—infusion of additional equity, standby equity participants, contingency tranche in construction loan, standby cost overrun funding agreements引入新的所有者權(quán)益，備用的權(quán)益投資者，建設(shè)貸款應(yīng)急部分，備用成本超支基金協(xié)議 Escrow funds, contingency account代管基金，意外準(zhǔn)備金賬戶 Delay in completion延期完工 Increase in construction costs and in debt service costs增加施工成本和負(fù)債成本 Delay in the scheduled flow of revenue to cover debt service and expenses延誤了收入進(jìn)度，而無法支付債務(wù)和費(fèi)用 Breach of project contracts, such as fuel supply or offtake違反了項(xiàng)目合同，例如燃油供給或者生產(chǎn)包銷協(xié)議 Risk mitigation風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解 Turnkey contract整套承包合同 Stated milestones tied to construction loan contract確立與在施工借款合同相符的里程碑,Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2001,?,Construction施工 III,Major risks主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn) II Project performance at less guaranteed levels項(xiàng)目績效難以保證 Breach of offtake contract/decrease in project revenue生產(chǎn)包銷協(xié)議的違約/項(xiàng)目收入的降低 Increase in maintenance costs and input/utility costs增加了維護(hù)成本和購買/能源成本 Inability to the project company to repay debt項(xiàng)目公司無法償付債務(wù) Risk mitigation風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解 Performance liquidated damage to cover the loss用績效違約金來補(bǔ)償損失 Third party guarantees such as letter of credit or performance bond (payment bond), when financially weak contractors當(dāng)施工方財(cái)務(wù)上困難時(shí)，可采取第三方保證例如信用證或履約保函（支付保函） Bid bond/warranty bond/retention bond投標(biāo)保函/質(zhì)量擔(dān)保/留置金保函 Other risks其它風(fēng)險(xiǎn) Site acquisition and construction related facilities項(xiàng)目調(diào)度和施工設(shè)備 Equipment, building material, and utility supply設(shè)備，建造材料，電力供應(yīng) Labor/environmental issues 人工/環(huán)境問題 Force majeure risks不可抗力風(fēng)險(xiǎn) Risk mitigation風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解 All risk contractor’s riks insurance承包商的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)保險(xiǎn),Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2001,?,Offtake Purchase 生產(chǎn)包銷采購I,Offtake agreements生產(chǎn)包銷合同 Takeorpay contract 照付不議合同(a form of unconditional guarantee一種無條件擔(dān)保) the purchaser is required to pay for a certain amount (fixed cost), even the product is not delivered. The rest of the amount (variable cost) will be paid if the purchaser wants to buy. 即便貨物還沒有發(fā)出，采購方也被要求支付一定金額（固定成本）。當(dāng)PI=0時(shí)，意味著凈現(xiàn)值=0并且修正內(nèi)部收益率=最低預(yù)期回報(bào)率。 Weak points of IRR內(nèi)部收益率方法的缺點(diǎn) It applies the project’s IRR to the reinvestment of cash in flows它把項(xiàng)目的內(nèi)部收益率應(yīng)用到了現(xiàn)金流入的在投資上 When there are more than one change from cash outflow to cashin flow, or from cashin flow to cash outflow in the projection, the value of IRR are more than one: calculator would simply indicate “error”如果現(xiàn)金支出和現(xiàn)金收入上有不止一個(gè)變化，IRR也會(huì)不知有一個(gè)：計(jì)算結(jié)果將會(huì)顯示：錯(cuò)誤,IRR = Σ = 0,N,t = 0,CFt,t,Based on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008,?,Future value of all cash in flows 所有現(xiàn)金流入的終值,Present value of all cash out flows 所有現(xiàn)金流出的現(xiàn)值,Modified Internal Rate of Return 修正內(nèi)部收益率(MIRR) I,Year年,Free cash flow 自由現(xiàn)金流,Cash out flow 現(xiàn)金流出,Financial Agreement (Closing)融資合同,Sank Costs 沉沒成本,Present Value現(xiàn)值,Future Value終值,(1 + MIRR) =,42,← Cost of capital 資金成本,Cost of capital資金成本 →,(1 + r ),t,1,(1 + r ),Nt,?,Method方法 MIRR is defined as the discount rate that forces the present value of cash in flows (CIF) to equal the present value of cash out flows (COF).修正內(nèi)部收益率是能使項(xiàng)目的現(xiàn)金流入現(xiàn)值等于現(xiàn)金流出現(xiàn)值時(shí)的折現(xiàn)率 Implication含義 MIRR is better than IRR because it reinvest the cashin flow by using the cost of capital which is more realistic. Thus, MIRR tells more accurate profitability of the project.修正內(nèi)部收益率方法優(yōu)于內(nèi)部收益率方法，因?yàn)樵摲椒ㄊ褂酶F(xiàn)實(shí)的資金成本把現(xiàn)金收入進(jìn)行再投資 MIRR Hurdle Rate: the project will produce more cash than the necessary amount to repay debt and deliver dividend to shareholders.該項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金足以償還債務(wù)并向股東分紅 MIRR is better than IRR because it allows more than one changes in plus and minus signs in cash flow projection. MIRR允許在加減的計(jì)算中存在一個(gè)以上的變化,Σ =,(1 + r ),N,CIFt (1 + r ),Modified Internal Rate of Return 修正內(nèi)部收益率(MIRR) II,(1 + MIRR),FV of cash in flows,t = 0,N,COFt,t,t = 0,N,(1 + MIRR),Σ,N t,PV of cash out flows =,N,Based on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008,?,Σ,(1 + r),t,Σ,Profitability Index 盈利能力指數(shù)(PI),Method方法 PI is another way of using NPV by dividing PV of future cash flow by initial investment.盈利能力指數(shù)是把將來的現(xiàn)金流的現(xiàn)值除以初始投資的方法 Implication PI tells the relative profitability of the project by indicating the value of the future cash flows par dollar of initial investment. When PI 1, the project should be accepted. When PI = 1, this basically means NPV = 0 and MIRR = Hurdle Rate.盈利能力指數(shù)顯示出一個(gè)項(xiàng)目相對(duì)于每一塊錢的初始投資可以獲得多少盈利。 IRR Hurdle Rate: the project will produce more cash than the necessary amount to repay debt and deliver dividend to shareholders.項(xiàng)目可以產(chǎn)生足夠的現(xiàn)金來償還債務(wù)并向股東支付股利。,Based on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008,?,(1 + r),Internal Rate of Return內(nèi)部收益率 (IRR),Method方法 IRR is defined as the discount rate that assumes NPV is equal to zero. 內(nèi)部收益率是能使項(xiàng)目的凈現(xiàn)值等于零時(shí)的折現(xiàn)率。 Negative NPV凈現(xiàn)值為負(fù)數(shù): the project cannot generate cash to repay debt to banks and deliver dividend to shareholders. 該項(xiàng)目不能產(chǎn)生足夠的現(xiàn)金償還銀行債務(wù)并向股東支付股利。 Civil Disturbances,Financial Risks,Market Risks,Civil Movements,Environment Human rights CSR Religion Nationalism Globalization,Interest rate Exchange rate Inflation rate Labor cost Product market Input market Salvage cost,Project Finance Credit Risks Overview,?,火災(zāi) 水災(zāi) 地震 火山 疾病,罷工 暴動(dòng) 恐怖活動(dòng) 戰(zhàn)爭,不可抗力,政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn),腐敗 法律/法規(guī) 不合法 專利權(quán)/許可權(quán) 特許權(quán) 稅賦 持股經(jīng)營 貨幣不可轉(zhuǎn)換 派遣 優(yōu)先購買權(quán)/優(yōu)先權(quán) 合同違約 外籍員工限制 執(zhí)法,建造 場地 設(shè)備 技術(shù) 生產(chǎn)包銷協(xié)議 投入 運(yùn)營 動(dòng)力 抵押 礦產(chǎn)儲(chǔ)量 報(bào)告的正確性,合同風(fēng)險(xiǎn),商業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),間接征用,征用,自然災(zāi)害,征用 沒收 國有化,戰(zhàn)爭及 民間干擾,金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn),市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn),利率 匯率 通貨膨脹率 人工成本 產(chǎn)品市場 產(chǎn)出市場 回收成本,項(xiàng)目融資的信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概況,民間運(yùn)動(dòng),環(huán)境 人權(quán) 企業(yè)社會(huì)責(zé)任 宗教 民族主義 全球化,?,3. Credit Risk Management信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理 (Financial Risks金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)),?,3.1 Cash Flow Analysis I 現(xiàn)金流分析I (NPV and IRR) （凈現(xiàn)值法及內(nèi)部收益率）,?,(1 + r ),(1 + r ),Net Present Value凈現(xiàn)值 (NPV) I,Year年,,,Free cash flow,Cash out flow 付出現(xiàn)金流,Financial Agreement (Closing)融資合同,Sank Costs 沉沒 成本,t = 0,t = 1,t = 2,t = 5,t = 10,t = 20,t = 30,t = 40,Present Value現(xiàn)值,Present value of cash out flow at t=2 第2年付出現(xiàn)金的現(xiàn)值,Present value of