【正文】 cash in flow at t=10 第10年收到現(xiàn)金的現(xiàn)值,PV =, CF2,2,PV =,CF10,10,Example例,Sank cost does not affect cash flow analysis because it is an existing fact regardless of the investment decision (it is not incremental costs). 沉沒成本不影響現(xiàn)金流分析， 無論投資決策是否變化，它都 不會變動（它不是增量成本）,Salvage Value殘值,?,(1 + r),CF10,(1 + r ),(1 + r ), CF2,= CF0 + + + ??? + + ??? +, CF1,(1 + r ),(1 + r),(1 + r),CF42,(1 + r ),?,Net Present Value凈現(xiàn)值 (NPV) II,1,2,10,= Σ,42,t = 0,CFt,t,Present value of cash out flow at t=2 第2年現(xiàn)金支出的現(xiàn)值,Present value of cash in flow at t=10 第10年現(xiàn)金流入的現(xiàn)值,PV2 =, CF2,2,PV10 =,CF10,10,?,?,?,?,?,?,PV0 = CF0,Present value of cash out flow at t=0 0年支出現(xiàn)金的現(xiàn)值,Negative value because they are cash out flow 負數(shù)，因為他們是現(xiàn)金流出,Positive value because they are cash in flow 正數(shù)，因為他們是現(xiàn)金流入,Net of all present value of cash out flow and all present value of cash in flow is: 所有現(xiàn)金流入的現(xiàn)值減去所有現(xiàn)金流出的現(xiàn)值,NPV = PV0 + PV1 + PV2 + PV3 + ??? + PV42,42,As long as this value is positive, the project will produce more cash than necessary to repay debt and dividend. 只要凈現(xiàn)值是正數(shù)，這個項目帶來的現(xiàn)金收入就能超過償 還的借款和股利所需要的現(xiàn)金,?,Net Present Value 凈現(xiàn)值(NPV) III,Implication 含義 Positive NPV凈現(xiàn)值為正數(shù): the project will generate more cash than the necessary amount to repay debt to banks and deliver dividend to shareholders, the excess cash solely to the project’s shareholders. 該項目產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金將超過用于償還銀行債務(wù)及向股東支付股利的現(xiàn)金，超過部分的現(xiàn)金僅僅屬于該項目的股東。 The sponsor can preserve corporate debt capacity.發(fā)起人可以保障公司的借債能力 To create asset specific governance structure可以建立明確的資產(chǎn)管理結(jié)構(gòu) Separate legal incorporation, which assumes a specific project and few growth options, reduces both the cost of monitoring managerial actions and assessing performance, and wasteful expenditures and suboptimal reinvestment.單獨設(shè)立法人企業(yè)，各自承擔一個項目，降低了各自的監(jiān)管，評價成本，節(jié)約了浪費的費用，和次優(yōu)再投資。項目公司是被一個或者一些發(fā)起人擁有的，而且他的負債對資產(chǎn)比率很高。Project Finance and Credit Risk Management 項目融資及 信貸風險管理,?,Project Finance Overview項目融資簡介 Credit Risks in Project Finance項目融資中的信貸風險 Credit Risk Management (Financial Risks)信貸風險管理 (財務(wù)風險) Cash Flow Analysis現(xiàn)金流分析 I (NPV and IRR凈現(xiàn)值和內(nèi)部收益率) Cash Flow Analysis現(xiàn)金流分析 II (Individual Cash Flows單個現(xiàn)金流) Stress Testing/Simulation壓力測試/仿真模擬 Credit Risk Management (Political Risks)信貸風險管理 (政治風險),Table of Contents目錄,?,Project Finance Overview 項目融資概況,?,Basel’s Definition of PF (in short) 項目融資的Basel定義,A simple cashflow stream簡單的現(xiàn)金流量 The value of PF relies on a simple cashflow stream generated by a single project and the collateral value of the project assets: the source of the cashflow may be a single buyer or consumers.項目融資的價值在于簡單的現(xiàn)金流量產(chǎn)生于單一的項目，以及項目資產(chǎn)的抵押價值：現(xiàn)金流的來源可能是一個買家或者客戶。 Non or limitedrecourse沒有資源或資源有限 An independent SPE is created to hold the project assets and to integrate all legal contracts in an effective and efficient manner for funding, building and operating a single purpose project. SPE is owned by one or a few sponsors and it is highly leveraged.一個獨立的項目公司建立的目的就是為了持有項目資產(chǎn)，集中所有法律合同進行有效和有效率的融資，建立和經(jīng)營一個單一目的的項目。 Risk allocation風險配置 PF is used for large, complex, and expensive industrial facilities such as natural resources and infrastructure sectors, which involve a series of legal contracts in a vertical chain from input supplier to output purchaser.項目融資被用于大型，復雜及昂貴的工業(yè)設(shè)備上，例如自然資源和基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)部分，涉及到從原料提供商到產(chǎn)成品采購方的垂直鏈上的一系列法律合同,Based on: International Convergence of Capital Management and Capital Standards, BIS, 2006, para 221,222,?,Why PF Structure? Sponsors’ Motivation 為什么使用項目融資結(jié)構(gòu)？發(fā)起人的動機,Risk mitigation/Debt capacity風險緩解/負債能力 By isolating the asset in a standalone project company, project finance reduces the possibility of risk contamination, the phenomenon whereby a failing asset drags an otherwise healthy sponsoring firm into distress.發(fā)起人可以把資產(chǎn)放在一個獨立的項目公司中，項目融資降低了風險的可能性，否則其他不良資產(chǎn)可能會導致整個公司都進入困境。 Deterrent against strategic behavior by the third parties可以威懾第三方的戰(zhàn)略行動 Sponsor can involve the critical parties for the project, including the public sector, as shareholders to prevent future conflict.發(fā)起人可以把重要的合作方，例如公共部門納入項目中，例如作為項目的股東，這樣可以防止將來的沖突 By involving international banks and multilateral agencies whose interest is solely in cashflow maximization by the project, the sponsor may prevent harmful action by the host government.發(fā)起人可以把國際銀行，國際代理納入項目公司，他們的利益會由項目而達到最大化，這樣發(fā)起人就有可能防止當?shù)卣挠泻π袨?Based on: The Economic Motivations for Using Project Finance, Benjamin C. Esty, 2003,?,PF vs. Corporate Finance 項目融資 vs. 公司金融,Project Finance項目融資 Limited or nonrecourse資源有限或者沒有資源 Simple cashflow structure produced from one independent waste asset由單一資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生的單一現(xiàn)金流結(jié)構(gòu) Highleverage at beginning, but getting lower toward the end of the debt repayment初期較高的財務(wù)杠桿， 但在債務(wù)償付之后逐降低 Relatively a few layers of debt and equity structure (simple ownership)相對較少的債務(wù)和權(quán)益結(jié)構(gòu)（單一所有權(quán)） Applied to projects attaining a scale of economy適用于達到規(guī)模經(jīng)濟的項目,Corporate Finance公司金融 Full recourse充足資源 Complicated cashflow structure produced from a set of various, replaceable profit making projects由一系列可替代的盈利項目產(chǎn)生的復雜的現(xiàn)金流結(jié)構(gòu) Leverage depends on a company’s target capital structure財務(wù)杠桿取決于公司的目標資本結(jié)構(gòu) Various layers of debt and equity structure (complicated ownership)較多層次的債券和權(quán)益結(jié)構(gòu)（復雜的所有權(quán)） Applied to all profit making business types適用于所有盈利企業(yè)類型,?,Typical Structure of Conventional PF 典型的傳統(tǒng)項目融資結(jié)構(gòu),Offtake purchaser 包銷商,Input supplier 投入供應(yīng)商,Operator 運營商,Project company 項目公司 (SPE),Contractors 承包商,Lenders 借款人,Sponsors 發(fā)起人,Central/local Government 中央/地方政府,Concession Authority 特許權(quán)許可,Insurers 保險公司,Shareholders Agreement 股東協(xié)議,Equity所有者權(quán)益,Loan Agreement借款合同,Debt借款,Construction Agreement 建造合同,License/permit專利權(quán)/許可權(quán),Concession Agreement特許權(quán)合同,Insurance保險,Offtake agreement 包銷協(xié)議,Supply agreement 供應(yīng)合同,Operation/maintenance Agreement 運營/維護合同,Power/utility電力/動力,Multilateral/bilateral agencies 多方/雙方代理,Equipment suppliers 設(shè)備供應(yīng)商,?,2. Credit Risks in Project Finance 項目融資中的信貸風險,?,Fire Flooding Earthquake Volcano Disease,Strike Insurrection Terrorism War,Force Majeure Events,Political Risks,Corruption Legal/regulatory irregularities License/Permit Concession Taxes Equityholding Currency inconvertibility Expatriation P