【正文】 Then obtain basecase, bestcase, and worstcase NPV and calculate mean NPV and standard deviation to (roughly) estimate the magnitude of the risk inherent to the project. 然后得出基本情況，最好情況，最差情況下的凈現(xiàn)值，再計算平均凈現(xiàn)值和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)偏差，（粗略地）估計該項目的內(nèi)部固有風(fēng)險的大小。,Based on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008,?,Scenario Analysis情景分析 I,Method方法 Scenario analysis examines a set of scenarios under the assumption that each scenario occurs with a certain probability 情景分析研究一系列情景，假設(shè)每種情景發(fā)生都有一定的可能性 Example 1: sales price would drop by 6% with 25% probability for worst case scenario.例1：最差情景發(fā)生的概率為25%，銷售單價降低6%。,5%,20%,15%,10%,5%,10%,15%,20%,Deviation from BaseCase Value (%),NPV ($),$ 0,0%,Unit sales price 銷售單價,NPV based on the originally estimated unit sales price 最初預(yù)計的單價產(chǎn)生的凈現(xiàn)值,NPV when unit sales price goes up by 15%單價上升15%時的凈現(xiàn)值,NPV when unit sales price goes down by 20% 單價降低20%時的凈現(xiàn)值,Based on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008,?,Sensitivity Analysis敏感性分析II,The slopes of the lines indicate how sensitive NPV is to changes in each individual cash flow.每根線的傾斜程度表示凈現(xiàn)值對每個因素變化的敏感程度 Relatively small error in estimating individual cash flow with steeper slope leads to a large error in estimating project’s NPV.如果對傾斜程度大的單個現(xiàn)金流的估計有相對較小的偏差，也會導(dǎo)致項目凈現(xiàn)值的估計結(jié)果存在較大誤差。,Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2001,?,Collateral抵押 II,Personal (movable) property個人（可移動）資產(chǎn) Intangible assets有形資產(chǎn) Permits, licenses and concessions許可權(quán)，許可證，特許權(quán) Contracts合同 Insurance proceeds保險收益 Surety bonds保證擔(dān)保 Guarantees擔(dān)保 Liquidated damages違約金 Political risk insurance政治風(fēng)險保險 Accounts賬戶 Disbursement agreement分銷協(xié)議,Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2001,?,Collateral抵押 III,Review the contracts to verify that they are each assignable under the country’s law. 審閱合同核實他們是符合當(dāng)國法律 In the event of a foreclosure, the contracts will only have value to the lender if they can be assumed by the lender and later assigned to a purchaser of the project.在喪失抵押品贖回權(quán)的情況下，如果合同只有對出借方有價值 Other issues其他問題 Types of liens allowed允許的留置權(quán)種類 Local formalities當(dāng)?shù)爻绦?Denomination of lien in local currency當(dāng)?shù)刎泿诺牧糁脵?quán) Priority of lien (perfection)留置權(quán)優(yōu)先權(quán) Enforcement強(qiáng)制 Foreclosure不可抗力,Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2001,?,Equity and Dividends 所有者權(quán)益和股利,Timing and certainty of equity contribution股權(quán)出資的時間和可能性 A part of equity contributions to the project company may be planned after the financial closing. Some funds may be injected with construction drawdowns, or await investment until project completion. 對項目公司的股權(quán)出資可能會在財務(wù)結(jié)算之后進(jìn)行計劃，一些資金可能在施工的暫停階段或者等到項目結(jié)束時投入。 Inflation rate通貨膨脹率 Risk allocation風(fēng)險分配 Cash flow projection現(xiàn)金流預(yù)測,Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2001,?,Collateral抵押 I,The “blanket” lien統(tǒng)括留置權(quán) The blanket lien covers all the assets of the project company, including real (unmovable) and personal (movable), tangible and intangible.統(tǒng)括留置權(quán)涵蓋項目公司的所有資產(chǎn)，包括不動產(chǎn)，個人（可移動）資產(chǎn)，有形和無形資產(chǎn)。,NPVP1 = CF0 + + + ??? +,[1 + (Rf + βa x Rp)],NOPAT2 + tKDD2,NOPAT1 + tKDD1,[1 + (Rf + βa x Rp)],(1 + WACCn),CFn,(1 + WACC2),CF2,(1 + WACC1),CF1,Issues on Cost of Capital 資金成本I,1,2,n,in which weight of debt is constantly adjusted如果負(fù)債比重不斷降低： WACC = (weight debt? x cost debt)(1 – T) + (weight capital? x cost equity) 加權(quán)平均資金成本=(負(fù)債比率*債務(wù)成本)(1稅率)+(權(quán)益比率*權(quán)益成本),1,2,[NOPAT: Net Operating Profit After Tax稅后凈收益, t: tax rate稅率, KD: debt cost債務(wù)成本, D: debt outstanding負(fù)債, Rf: risk free rate無風(fēng)險利率, βa: asset beta, Rp: risk premium],Tax shield Adjustment 稅盾調(diào)整,(1 + WACC),CFn,(1 + WACC),CF2,(1 + WACC),CF1,NPVC = CF0 + + + ??? +,1,2,n,Based on: Capital Cash Flows: A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Cash Flows, Richard S. Ruback, 2000,?,Issues on Cost of Capital資金成本 II,Reliability of CAPM in Project Finance Situation資本資產(chǎn)計價模型在項目融資中的可靠性 Both NPVP1 and NPVP2 in the previous slide involve the concept of CAPM (capital asset pricing model) to get debt, equity and asset beta, which would not work appropriately in case of project finance for several reasons:在上例中應(yīng)用了資本資產(chǎn)訂價模型的凈現(xiàn)值計算可能不能在項目融資中準(zhǔn)確應(yīng)用，原因如下 A country where project is located may not have integrated/efficient market 項目所在的國家可能不是一個綜合/有效率的市場 Data would be not available for market risk premium 由于市場風(fēng)險溢價而無法得到數(shù)據(jù) An ideal instrument represents the risk free rate would not be available 無風(fēng)險利率可能無法得到 CAPM may not able to incorporate all risks associated with the project 資本資產(chǎn)定價模型可能無法將所有風(fēng)險都和模型關(guān)聯(lián)起來 CAPM does not consider asymmetric down side risks模型沒有考慮不對稱的下跌風(fēng)險 Required return on debt may different between construction and operating periods 負(fù)債的要求回報期間可能與建設(shè)和運營期間不一致 What if there is single purchaser located in other country?如果僅有的采購方在另一個國家 What to do?怎么辦,Based on: Project Finance, Aditya Agarwal and Sandeep Kaul,?,3.2 Cash Flow Analysis現(xiàn)金流分析 II (Individual Cash Flows 單個現(xiàn)金流),?,Analysis of Individual Cash Flows 單個現(xiàn)金流分析,Free Cash Flow 自由現(xiàn)金流 (FCF),Year年,Sales Revenue銷售收入,Year年,Input cost投入成本,Operating cost運營成本,Taxes稅,Net investment凈投資 (in maintenance),Construciton Costs建造成本,FCF used for NPV (IRR) analysis 自由現(xiàn)金流用于凈現(xiàn)值（內(nèi)部收益率）分析,Anatomy of FCF for project finance項目融資中的自由現(xiàn)金流,?,Construction施工 I,Construction contracts建造合同 Fixed price contract固定價格合同 (high premium/low risk, payment based on progress高溢價/低風(fēng)險，按進(jìn)度付款) Turnkey contract整套承包合同 The contractor accepts full responsibility for delivering a fully operational facility on a datecertain, fixed price basis.承建商以固定的價格，負(fù)責(zé)所有的建設(shè)施工 EPC contract 合同能源管理(engineering, procurement, and construction contract設(shè)計，采購，施工合同) Cost plus fee contract成本加固定費用合同 (low premium/high risk, frequent payments低溢價/高風(fēng)險，頻繁付款) Cost plus fee contract with maximum price and incentive fee成本加固定費用最高價格加獎勵費用合同,Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2001,?,Construction施工 II,Major risks主要風(fēng)險 I Increase in construction cost增加施工成本 (cost overrun成本超支) Unavailability of sufficie