恒安消費(fèi)產(chǎn)品銷(xiāo)售培訓(xùn)-銷(xiāo)售預(yù)測(cè)(編輯修改稿)
2025-07-06 15:40 本頁(yè)面
【文章內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介】 up of people in forecast discussions: a team effort is required (Sales, Purchasing/Supply and Manufacturing) – Discussion: Other influences on forecast accuracy Influences of Forecast Accuracy 影響預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性的因素 –其它可利用的歷史數(shù)據(jù)（諸如 ﹕ 新產(chǎn)品 ﹑ 設(shè)計(jì)變化 ﹑ 客戶群的變化 ﹑促銷(xiāo)計(jì)劃 ﹑ 經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)） –還包括要有一組人在負(fù)責(zé)此事 ﹕ 需要一個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)努力去做 ﹗ （銷(xiāo)售 ﹑ 采購(gòu)／供應(yīng)和制造） ? 討論 ﹕ 還有其它因素影響預(yù)測(cè)的準(zhǔn)確性嗎 ? Sales Forecasting Page 10 Components of Demand 需求的組成因素 ? Accuracy of each ponent of demand is essential to accurate sales forecasting – Specific Product (type, size, color, etc) – Quantity – Required Delivery Date ? Accuracy can be improved by understanding factors of demand and removing uncertainty of demand ? 只有保証每個(gè) 需求 環(huán)節(jié)的準(zhǔn)確性 ﹐ 才能確保銷(xiāo)售預(yù)測(cè)的準(zhǔn)確性 – 具體產(chǎn)品（形式 ﹑ 尺寸 ﹑ 顏色等） – 數(shù)量 – 送貨時(shí)間 ? 通過(guò)找出影響需求的因素并消除需求的不確定性 ﹐ 提高預(yù)測(cè)的準(zhǔn)確性 Sales Forecasting Page 11 Demand Factors 影響需求的因素 ? Trend – growth or decline over an extended period of time ? Cyclical – wavelike fluctuation around the trend ? Seasonal – pattern of change that repeats itself year after year ? Random – not accounted for by the other ponents (trend, cyclical, or seasonal). ? 趨勢(shì) –未來(lái)一段時(shí)間是否增長(zhǎng)還是衰退 ? 周期性 –在發(fā)展的趨勢(shì)中出現(xiàn)的波浪式的波動(dòng) ? 季節(jié)性 –年復(fù)一年不斷重復(fù)的模式 ? 隨機(jī)性 – 其它因素（除了以上提到的因素） Sales Forecasting Page 12 Discussion: Demand 討論 : 需求問(wèn)題 ? Is there a “Cyclical” factor in Sanitary Products sales? – Discuss examples ? Is there a “Seasonal” pattern in Sanitary Products sales? – Discuss examples ? Give some examples of “Random” factors in Sanitary Products sales ? 衛(wèi)生產(chǎn)品 的銷(xiāo)售是否有周期性因素呢 ﹖ –討論并舉例說(shuō)明 ? 本公司的銷(xiāo)售是否受到季節(jié)性因素的影響呢 ﹖ –討論并舉例說(shuō)明 ? 大家來(lái)舉例說(shuō)明本公司的銷(xiāo)售是否有些隨機(jī)性的因素 Sales Forecasting Page 13
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