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2025-02-26 03:45 本頁(yè)面
【文章內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介】 ysis from the standpoints of major project participants, . host government, funders.Host government：The government39。s principal responsibility is to achieve VFM or cost efficiency (CE) by implementing a project. In this regard, the best alternative for infrastructure arrangement must be selected. However, VFM and CE of a project contain uncertainty and risk, because they are values of the project in the future. Therefore, evaluation of VFM and CE should be conducted in terms of risk analysis, too.Generally, VFM includes not only money terms, but also nonmonetary terms, such as social welfare and time saving in transportation. If all of these nonmonetary terms are convertible into monetary terms, a decisionmaker can analyze risk by the money term as a single criterion. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis are applicable in this case. On the other hand, if it is not the case, MCDM, which can incorporate plural criteria in a systematic way, is applicable to the analysis.Selection of the most costefficient concessionaire is also an important responsibility of government. Concessionaire selection under risk should be considered. In this regard, Hatush and Skitmore (1997) presented a potential use of probabilistic risk analysis to bid evaluation and prequalification of concessionaires. In addition, in order to recognize the costefficiency in a concessionaire39。s bid, government needs to know how risk is anticipated and involved in the bid. For example, let us suppose Concessionaire A offered a higher bid price (or higher tariff rate, longer concession period) because he anticipates risk sufficiently and as a result included the risk premium in the bid price. Concessionaire B, in turn, offered a lower price simply because he does not analyze risk sufficiently. In such a case, awarding the concession to Concessionaire B may cause a disaster. Because BOT projects contain much more risk than traditional ones, governments must understand how risk is analyzed and anticipated by concessionaires so as to avoid the disaster as shown in the example.Another important point is risk transfer. In BOT projects, governments expect private panies to assume as much risk as possible. However, risk transfer is always acpanied by risk premium as an additional cost. By analyzing risk in terms of likelihood, severity, and risk premium, a government must consider the best risk transfer. Likelihood and severity of risk can be assessed subjectively but in a systematic manner by AHP and some other MCDM methods. Risk mapping technique is a simple and easily understood technique for this purpose. Once these two attributes of risk, . likelihood and severity, are well assessed, risk premium can be considered. In so doing, the utility theory would be working. The suitable risk premium can be settled in a negotiation with concessionaires. Finally, the most essential thing governments have to do is to set up clear objectives, either single or plural. Without doing it, risk analysis cannot be conducted sufficiently.Funders：There are two major categories as funders in BOT projects. One is lender and the other is investor. “Lenders tend to focus on the downside risks while investors tend to look at the upside opportunity” (Walker and Smith, 1995). Lenders are mainly concerned with the cash flow of a project. Cash flow of a project is analyzed and measured by the following terms, as examples: return on investment (ROI)。 return on equity (ROE)。 net present value (NPV)。 pay back period (PBP)。 and internal rate of return (IRR). By constructing cashflow models, lenders take a look at some of these terms of a project. One of the very important and difficult things in cashflow modeling is how to predict an interest rate and an inflation rate, or, in ot
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