【正文】 鼓勵“走出去”策略努力實現(xiàn)藏匯于民 ............................................................. 13 實行外匯儲備多元化來化解匯率風(fēng)險 ................................................................. 13 調(diào)整外匯儲備幣種結(jié)構(gòu)保持儲備多樣化 ............................................................. 14 提高外匯儲備利用率 ............................................................................................. 14 結(jié) 論 .................................................................................................................................... 15 參考文獻 .................................................................................................................................. 16 致 謝 .................................................................................................................................. 17 附 錄 1 ............................................................................................................................... 18 附 錄 2 ............................................................................................................................... 20 哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)德強商務(wù)學(xué)院畢業(yè)論文（設(shè)計） 1 1 緒 論 研究 背景 改革開放以來， 中國 的外匯儲備曾有過兩次高速增長時期。 計劃： 。 畢業(yè)論文（設(shè)計）要求與計劃： 要求： ，有重要理論意義和實際價值，符合本專業(yè)人才培養(yǎng)目標(biāo)定位和要求。 尤其是在當(dāng)今經(jīng)濟一體化的背景下，外匯儲備在保護本國經(jīng)濟、金融安全等方面扮演了越來越 重要的角色。此類現(xiàn)象之所以值得關(guān)注，其原因在于，這些國家外匯儲備的增加，恰恰是發(fā)生在亞洲金融危機之后他們摒棄了實行多年的固定匯率制并轉(zhuǎn)向各種形式的浮動匯率制之時；而我們一向奉為圭臬的外匯儲備理論卻告訴我們，一國轉(zhuǎn)向浮動匯率制，將大大減少其 對外匯儲備的需求 ——理論與現(xiàn)實的矛盾，需要給予合理的解釋。 需求分析法利用經(jīng)濟計量技術(shù)，對影響儲備需求的各種因素進行多元回歸與分析，構(gòu)造出外匯儲備需求函數(shù)。 充足的外匯儲備對一國外匯收支的調(diào)節(jié)、匯率的穩(wěn)定以及國家信用的增強等具有積極作用，有利于拓展國際貿(mào)易 ,吸引外商投資 ,降低國有企業(yè)的融資成本；有利于維護 金融 體系的穩(wěn)定 ,提高應(yīng)對突發(fā)事件、平衡國際收支的能力 ， 是一國 經(jīng)濟 穩(wěn)定 發(fā)展 的基本保障因素之一。 哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)德強商務(wù)學(xué)院畢業(yè)論文（設(shè)計） 5 3 我國外匯儲備過高的主要原因分析 我國對外貿(mào)易的快速發(fā)展 1999 年～ 20xx 年的七年中，我國幾乎每年都有數(shù)百億美元的經(jīng)常項目順差。經(jīng)常轉(zhuǎn)移一直順差并逐年提高，顯示出外國政府和居民對我 國的無償轉(zhuǎn)移不僅是凈流入，而且快速增加。出于地方利益的考慮，經(jīng)濟運行中的重復(fù)投資、重復(fù)建設(shè)現(xiàn)象屢見不鮮，由其導(dǎo)致的某些行業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩，在內(nèi)需相對不足的情況下，只能依靠擴大出口來緩解生產(chǎn)過剩的問題。在國際收支連年巨額順差這一源頭的作用下，我國外匯市場外匯長期供大于求，中國 人民銀行為了維持住人民幣的匯率穩(wěn)定，必須在外匯市場購入外匯，其結(jié)果必然是外匯儲備的增加。據(jù)有關(guān)方面統(tǒng)計，近年來，與經(jīng)常項目順差對新增外匯儲備的貢獻度呈下降趨勢相反．資本順差的貢獻度逐漸上升。二是資本項目可兌換，即政府不對私人部門因投資和金融交易進行根本性的匯兌限制。外匯儲備增加越多，人民幣的發(fā)放增長越快。當(dāng)美元貶值時，高外匯儲備的損失就更大。 在 20xx 年的最后一個交易周里，人民幣匯率連續(xù)突破了、 、 和 四個重要的心理關(guān)口，再次向市場傳達出人民幣將加快升值的步伐。通過降低和取消出口退稅、讓 企業(yè) 承擔(dān)環(huán)境污染的社會成本、提高最低工資水平等措施，來調(diào)整和減少低效 (微利 )商品出口企業(yè)的出口額。 實行外匯儲備多元化來化解匯率風(fēng)險 外匯儲備多元化的思想源于國際儲備多元化理論中關(guān)于多種貨幣儲備體系問題和儲備資產(chǎn)多元化的探討。 二是積極貫徹落實黨中央、國務(wù)院 “走出去 ”的戰(zhàn)略。 哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)德強商務(wù)學(xué)院畢業(yè)論文（設(shè)計） 18 附 錄 1 Foreign exchange reserve is important to an open economic system. It is used to balance the account deficit in international ine and expenses, to intervene foreign exchange market, to stabilize home currency value, to pay foreign debt and to maintain public confident. However, too much foreign exchange reserve is not good for a country. Recently there are many discussions about the foreign exchange reserve in china, there are many studies about the relationship between inflation, revaluation pressure, costs and the huge foreign exchange reserve. Based on early studies, this article mainly analyses the negative effect of china’s ever increasing foreign exchange reserve. Firstly, this paper gives the reasons for foreign exchange reserve increase, and reveals problems hide in these reasons. Secondly, through theoretical analysis and empirical testing, this paper discovers that the foreign exchange reserve increase has lead negative effects to moary policy, price level, foreign exchange rate of RMB, regional disparity, etc. this article also evaluates how much pressure it has given to the inflation, the appreciation of RMB and the holding costs of the government, banks and domestic residents. In recent years， along with the continuously development of our country’s economy, the import and exportscale extends continuously too, particularly the first six years after joining the WTO， the changes became more obviously .And also the foreign exchange reserve of our country is often creative high simultaneously. By the end of July 20xx， the amount was already trillion US. Dollars. How to fa ce it correctly， how to deal with it reasonable， and how can it promote the economy keep on a development， all these have already bee a hot topic in our society. Aim at the very rigorous problem of this reality， my dissertation carried analysis major on the reason why our foreign exchange reserve is so large and how to deal with it. In conclusion: our national foreign exchange reserve has already been the in the world, which has attained more than 1 trillion US. Dollars. From this point of view，It shows a rapidly grow of China economy， this improve our position in world economy and develop our international Prestige. The large number of foreign exchange reserve will also has a Positive effect on developing foreign trade strongly， improving international investment activity, and fighting against international financial risk. On the other side， However, the foreign exchange reserve scale of the our country has already outrun the reasonable circumscription, as a result， it has made and will continue create 哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)德強商務(wù)學(xué)院畢業(yè)論文（設(shè)計） 19 negative effects: large number reserve ma rket the exchange rate adjustment mechanism to face a test additionally, enhance Chinese Yuan’s appreciation pressure, increase the inflation pressure, restrict and influence the establishment and the implement of independence moary policy。此外，還可以部分儲備進行貧困地區(qū)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施改造和某些救濟。甚至還可以借鑒國外的成功經(jīng)驗，有條件地授權(quán)境外的機構(gòu)和個人經(jīng)營外匯儲備，利用國內(nèi)外兩個市場、兩種人力資源和不同的交易技術(shù) ，為我國外匯儲備的保值、增值作貢獻。同時，人民銀行為了沖銷由于外匯儲備快速增長導(dǎo)致的基礎(chǔ)貨幣投放量過大，人民銀行不斷發(fā)行央行票據(jù)回籠貨幣 。 事實上，盡管人民幣升值問題的出現(xiàn)在一定程度上反映了國際經(jīng)濟利益的矛盾和沖突，但必須 承認，經(jīng)常項目與資本和金融項目 “ 雙順差 ” 的存在是人民幣升值壓力形成的關(guān)鍵和根源所在。 由于匯率變動的頻繁性，高外匯儲備的匯率風(fēng)險加大。外匯儲備實際上是對國外實際資源的購買力，若得到有效利用就可以增加國內(nèi)投資和加快經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展，因此一國持有外 匯儲備，是將這些資源儲備起來，犧牲和放棄了利用它來加快本國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的機會。 外匯儲備是實現(xiàn)人民幣可自由兌換的重要工具 從 1994 年 1 月 1 日起，我國外匯管理體制進行了重大改革，