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如何進(jìn)行暴發(fā)調(diào)查 How to Investigate an Outbreak Robert E. Fontaine, MD MSc US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Advisor to Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program 什么是暴發(fā)或流行? What is an outbreak or epidemic? ? Epidemic 流行性 ? Outbreak 暴發(fā) ? Cluster 聚集性 暴發(fā)和流行病可以突然發(fā)生 Outbreaks and epidemics may happen suddenly 010203040501 9 17 25 33 41有些暴發(fā)和流行病則是緩慢發(fā)展的 Others may develop slowly 010203040501 9 17 25 33 41有些暴發(fā)可能在高本底水平上發(fā)生 Others may happen on a high background level 010203040501 9 17 25 33 41我們?nèi)绾伟l(fā)現(xiàn)暴發(fā)和流行?。? How do we learn about outbreaks and epidemics? 通過定期回顧監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù) By regular review of surveillance 通過區(qū)縣公共衛(wèi)生人員的報(bào)告 By reports from county and district public health workers 通過和臨床人員的討論 From discussions with clinical professionals 通過新聞媒介 From the news media 直接從公眾獲取 Directly from the public 從私人商務(wù)和政府機(jī)構(gòu)獲取 From private business and government agencies. 1 為什么要對暴發(fā)和流行病進(jìn)行調(diào)查? Why initiate an investigation? 確定問題的特征 Characterize the problem 為控制和預(yù)防措施提供合理依據(jù) Rational basis for control and prevention 科研 回答科學(xué)問題 Researchanswer scientific questions 保持流行病學(xué)家的業(yè)務(wù)熟練性 Maintain proficiency of epidemiologists 出于政治 /法律考慮 Political / legal concerns 出于規(guī)劃的考慮 Program considerations 1 為什么要啟動調(diào)查? Why initiate an investigation? 來源和傳播方式不清 Uncertainty of cause or mode of transmission 可能涉及食物,水,藥物,疫苗或其他產(chǎn)品 Possible involvement of food, water, drug, vaccine, or other product 對公眾的巨大威脅 Explosive threat to the general public 較高的發(fā)病及死亡 Significant morbidity and mortality 對工作、學(xué)校及公共服務(wù)造成影響 Interfere with work, school, public services 1 已知 未知 已知 調(diào)查 + 控制 +++ 調(diào)查 +++ 控制 + 未知 調(diào)查 +++ 控制 +++ 調(diào)查 +++ 控制 + 來源 /途徑 病因 值得花時間和精力調(diào)查嗎? ?保護(hù)公眾免于持續(xù)存在或反復(fù)發(fā)生問題的侵害 Protect the public from continuing or recurrent problem ?維持流行病學(xué)家工作的有效性 Maintain proficiency of epidemiologists ?出于控制規(guī)劃的考慮 Program considerations ?出于政治 /法律考慮 Political / legal concerns ?調(diào)查成本和難易 Ease and cost of the investigation ?可能會采取的控制決策 Potential for decisive control ?回答重要的公共衛(wèi)生問題 Answer important public health questions 為什么要啟動調(diào)查? Why initiate an investigation? 只有一個傳播模式 ——調(diào)查或控制 ? Infections with only one mode of transmission investigate or control? ?水痘 Chickenpox ?手足口病 /皰疹性咽喉炎 ? Hand foot and Mouth disease / herpangina ?麻疹 Measles ?猩紅熱 Scarlet fever ?輪狀病毒 Rotavirus ?流感 Influenza 調(diào)查暴發(fā)的 10個步驟 10 steps of an outbreak investigation 準(zhǔn)備現(xiàn)場工作 Prepare for field work 證實(shí)暴發(fā)存在 Establish existence of an outbreak Time Verify the diagnosis 驗(yàn)證診斷 Define, find, and interview cases 定義,搜索,訪談病例 確定人、地點(diǎn)和時間特征 Characterize person, place and time Develop a hypothesis 提出假設(shè) Develop analytic study to test hypothesis 通過分析研究驗(yàn)證假說 Reconsider, refine, retest hypothesis 再推敲,修正和再檢驗(yàn)假說 實(shí)施控制措施 Implement Control 將調(diào)查結(jié)果進(jìn)行交流 Communicate Findings 準(zhǔn)備現(xiàn)場工作 Prepare for field work 準(zhǔn)備現(xiàn)場工作 Prepare for field work 證實(shí)暴發(fā)存在 Establish existence of an outbreak Time Verify the diagnosis 驗(yàn)證診斷 確定人、地點(diǎn)和時間特征 Characterize person, place and time Develop a hypothesis 提出假設(shè) Develop analytic study to test hypothesis 通過分析研究驗(yàn)證假說 Reconsider, refine, retest hypothesis 再推敲,修正和再檢驗(yàn)假說 實(shí)施控制措施 Implement Control 將調(diào)查結(jié)果進(jìn)行交流 Communicate Findings Define, find, and interview cases 定義,搜索,訪談病例 為去現(xiàn)場做準(zhǔn)備工作 Prepare for field work 確定調(diào)查的目的 Determine the objectives of the investigation. 為旅行作出必要的安排 Make necessary arrangements for travel 閱讀相關(guān)疾病和已發(fā)表的研究 Read up on disease and published studies 收集你認(rèn)為需要的所有物資和設(shè)備 Gather up all supplies and equipment you think you will need Step 1 為去現(xiàn)場做準(zhǔn)備工作 Prepare for field work 閱讀相關(guān)疾病和已發(fā)表的研究 Read up on disease an