【正文】 第 36 月 1996 1998 360 348 1999 2022 308 293 2022 2022 188 97 1969 解釋 ―一年盈，二年平，三年虧” 盈余管理 財(cái)務(wù)包裝 財(cái)務(wù)欺詐 1970 公開(kāi)增發(fā)條件： 一、最近三個(gè)會(huì)計(jì)年度加權(quán)平均凈資產(chǎn)收益率平均不低于 10％，且最近一個(gè)會(huì)計(jì)年度加權(quán)平均凈資產(chǎn)收益率不低于 10％。 1971 1972 Is there penalty for crime? Corporate scandal and management turnover in China Peng Sun Peking University Yi Zhang Peking University 2022 1973 Stock market around the world in 20222022 Enron World Xerox Parmalat ... ... 1974 in 2022 US SarbanesOxley Act signed Many managers were punished by law or other disciplines To date, in the Enron case 34 defendants have been charged, including 25 former Enron executives, and 16 defendants have so far been convicted. Former Enron Vice Chairmen suicided in 2022 when the investgition started … 1975 Stock market in China a booming of corporate scandals ? since 1992, about 200 listed firms among 1200 have been subject to security enforcement actions by China Securities Regulation Commission (CSRC), Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) and Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE). ? The ratio of firms with scandal is far above the level of other countries 1976 Motivation Zhang (2022) ? corporate governance does not help in avoiding scandal in China ? legal enforcement matters What are the costs to management for frauds? Are there penalties on those top managers and directors accused of fraud? 1977 Case 1 Zhengzhou Baiwen Co., Ltd. (Group) Chairman Fuqian Li and chief executive officer (CEO) Yide Lu were fired soon after the revelation of the firm’s fraud in accounting statements by CSRC in 2022. In 2022, Fuqian Li and Yide Lu were sentenced to imprisonment for three and two years respectively. 1978 Case 2 L and H, who are chairman and CEO of firm A respectively, kept their jobs though being convicted by CSRC of announcing false profit and concealing large guarantee contracts in 2022. Case 3 Z announced his resignation as chairman of firm B in March 2022, which was convicted by SZSE for its notorious corporate scandals in inappropriately lending to large shareholders from 1994 to 2022. After that Z became a senior official in the government of City Y in Province H. 1979 II. Issues there are various consequences faced by the firms and senior officials that have mitted frauds ? the penalty from the regulation authorities ? falling stock price ? legal penalty for management and corporation. ? reputation penalty to the management mitting fraud. 1980 we choose the last year the fraud occurs as year 0 study management turnover in the window of year [0, +2]. Among those 155 firms, there are 126 CEOs and 127 chairmen are replaced. However, 69 CEOs and 67 chairmen lose their jobs before the regulation authorities announcement date of fraud. 1981 The penalty for scandal from regulation authorities T ab le 3 T h e en f orce m en t action tak en b y th e CS RC, S H S E an d S Z S E P an el A : C l assi f i ca ti on of P ena l ty f or F i rm s ’ D i f f er ent K i nds o f F ra uds C ri t i ci sm P ub l i c C on de m na t i on W arni ng F i ning W arni ng amp。 C on fi scat i on of I l l eg al E arni ng s Fi rm s 31 83 10 2 9 9 1982 Pa nel B: C l ass i f i cati on of Penalt y f or C E O , C hai rm an and D i r ect ors C r i t i ci sm P ubl i c C ond em nat i on W ar ni ng F i ni ng W ar ni ng amp。 confiscation of illegal earnings‖ is negative but not statistically significant The CAR for ―fining‖ and ―warning amp。 2022年年報(bào)顯示交銀系基金持有 1780萬(wàn)股。一季度華夏系和大成系等基金開(kāi)始接手哈空調(diào)。從 3月 29日到 4月 23日的 17個(gè)交易日中，哈空調(diào)的最大跌幅超過(guò)了 33%。當(dāng)天哈空調(diào)公告稱，對(duì) 2022年報(bào)表中的所得稅進(jìn)行調(diào)整，并將一項(xiàng)長(zhǎng)期股權(quán)投資由成本法改為按照權(quán)益法核算，以及商業(yè)發(fā)票貼現(xiàn)的會(huì)計(jì)處理差錯(cuò)等事項(xiàng)，造成哈空調(diào)的費(fèi)用上升，利潤(rùn)減少。 4月 22日哈空調(diào)公告稱，經(jīng)向控股股東詢證，未來(lái)可預(yù)見(jiàn)的三個(gè)月內(nèi)不存在非公開(kāi)增發(fā)等重大應(yīng)披露而未披露的重大事項(xiàng)。 19106 2022年 7月份哈空調(diào)增發(fā)方案被否后，開(kāi)始新的增發(fā)計(jì)劃?！睋?jù)知情人士透露。 按照之前 市場(chǎng)普遍預(yù)計(jì) ，哈空調(diào) 2022年業(yè)績(jī)將達(dá)到 1元 /股，國(guó)信證券一行業(yè)研究員也表示，之前機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)于哈空調(diào)的業(yè)績(jī)非常樂(lè)觀，曾有一基金研究員預(yù)計(jì)業(yè)績(jī)會(huì)達(dá)到 /股。這讓哈空調(diào)管理層很惱火。 19107 定向增發(fā) ? 2022年 7月 14日保利地產(chǎn)以 80億元，除保利集團(tuán)認(rèn)購(gòu) 15億元以外，其余 65億元增發(fā)給其他機(jī)構(gòu)或個(gè)人 ? 南方和博時(shí)基金公司合計(jì)動(dòng)用 。 ? 截至 5月 19日，保利地產(chǎn)收于 (10送 3除權(quán) )，與增發(fā)價(jià)相比，跌幅高達(dá) %； ? 金地集團(tuán)收?qǐng)?bào) (10送 8除權(quán) )與 1定向增發(fā)價(jià)格相比下跌了 %。 19108 定向增發(fā) ? “增發(fā)王”劉益謙 ? 保利地產(chǎn)、金地集團(tuán)浮虧近 5億元。我們是一直要參與下去的 ,現(xiàn)在市場(chǎng)不好對(duì)我來(lái)說(shuō)機(jī)會(huì)更大。 19109 藝術(shù)品投資 ? ―股票要買(mǎi)便宜的，藝術(shù)品要買(mǎi)貴的。有朋友跟我說(shuō)，這幅畫(huà)好在哪里，我根本搞不清楚，我知道大家都說(shuō)它好，‘為什么好’不是我研究的。但是， 我認(rèn)為藝術(shù)本身沒(méi)有價(jià)值，只有被資本發(fā)現(xiàn)之后才有價(jià)值 ，全世界都是這樣。 ? 基金為主參與的定向增發(fā)收益最低 ? 僅有公司關(guān)聯(lián)方參與定向增發(fā)的公司，其長(zhǎng)期股價(jià)表現(xiàn)將會(huì)好于那些僅向外部投資者發(fā)定向增發(fā)的上市公司的長(zhǎng)期股價(jià)表現(xiàn)。 1 年期樣本 B H R 經(jīng)對(duì)比公司調(diào)整后的 B H A R 2 年期樣本 B H R 經(jīng)對(duì)比公司調(diào)整后的 B H A R 3 年期樣本B H R 經(jīng)對(duì)比公司調(diào)整后的 B H A R 觀測(cè)數(shù) 341 341 246 246 180 180 平均 方差 峰度 0 偏度 置信度 * * * * * 19112 定向增發(fā)發(fā)布公告前不同事件窗下的累計(jì)超額收益（ CAR） 事件窗 N C AR 均值 AA R 0 的天數(shù) 占總數(shù)比例（ % ） AA R 0 的天數(shù) 占總數(shù)比例（ % ） 181 108 [ 100,100] 289 （ ） 6 3 % 3 7 % 46 15 [ 60,0] 289 （ ） 74% 26% 0. 1184 23 8 [ 30,0] 289 （ 0. 0004 ）* ** 74% 26% 7 4 [ 10,0] 289 （ 0. 0046 ）* ** 64% 36% 19113 在定向增發(fā)發(fā)布公告事件中 [100,100]事件窗下的 CAR 19114 發(fā)行債券 公開(kāi)發(fā)行債券 － 與發(fā)行股票相同的流程 指定一家投資銀行 處理和 SEC的注冊(cè)問(wèn)題 注：承銷(xiāo)成本少于發(fā)行股票的相應(yīng)成本 不對(duì)稱信息問(wèn)題也更小 19115 私募市場(chǎng) 定義：向一小部分投資者銷(xiāo)售債券 – 通常是直接談判而不通過(guò)投行家。一般購(gòu)買(mǎi)者： 保險(xiǎn)公司 養(yǎng)老金基金 為什么私募債券而非公開(kāi)發(fā)行債券 ? 避免注冊(cè)的各種要求 更低的發(fā)行交易成本 更容易個(gè)性化和展開(kāi)重新談判 19116 為什么公開(kāi)發(fā)行債券而非私募債券 ? 私募投資者要求補(bǔ)償私募債券的流動(dòng)性不足（流動(dòng)性溢價(jià)） 私募市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展 144A規(guī)則 (1990) 合格機(jī)構(gòu)投資者允許交易未注