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確定人、地點(diǎn)和時(shí)間特征 Characterize person, place and time Develop a hypothesis 提出假設(shè) Develop analytic study to test hypothesis 通過分析研究驗(yàn)證假說 Reconsider, refine, retest hypothesis 再推敲,修正和再檢驗(yàn)假說 實(shí)施控制措施 Implement Control 將調(diào)查結(jié)果進(jìn)行交流 Communicate Findings Define, find, and interview cases 定義,搜索,訪談病例 推敲并檢驗(yàn)假設(shè): 評價(jià)因果關(guān)系和關(guān)聯(lián)性的 5條標(biāo)準(zhǔn) Reconsider, refine, retest hypothesis: 5 causation criteria 關(guān)聯(lián)性的力度 Strength of the association 與其他研究的一致性 Consistency with other studies 接觸在前,發(fā)病在后 Exposure precedes disease 生物學(xué)似真性 Biological plausibility 計(jì)量反應(yīng)關(guān)系 Doseresponse effect 還有那些假設(shè)需要評估? What additional hypotheses need to be evaluated? Step 8 Investigators examined a dry well that the school used to store water 還有那些假設(shè)需要評估? What additional hypotheses need to be evaluated? 教室 Classroom 教室Classroom 宿舍Dorm 宿舍Dorm 宿舍Dorm 宿舍Dorm 廚房 Kitchen 井 A Well A 辦公室Office 溝渠 Ditch 水槽Tank 廁所Lavatory 河流 River 溝渠 Ditch 教室 Classroom 水管 Water pipeline 污 水 溝 Sewage Drain 井 B Well B Step 8 污水坑離 B水井距離僅 5米 Sewage ditch within 5 meters of well B Well B behind this wall 實(shí)施控制措施 Implement control and prevention measures 準(zhǔn)備現(xiàn)場工作 Prepare for field work 證實(shí)暴發(fā)存在 Establish existence of an outbreak Time Verify the diagnosis 驗(yàn)證診斷 確定人、地點(diǎn)和時(shí)間特征 Characterize person, place and time Develop a hypothesis 提出假設(shè) Develop analytic study to test hypothesis 通過分析研究驗(yàn)證假說 Reconsider, refine, retest hypothesis 再推敲,修正和再檢驗(yàn)假說 實(shí)施控制措施 Implement Control 將調(diào)查結(jié)果進(jìn)行交流 Communicate Findings Define, find, and interview cases 定義,搜索,訪談病例 排除暴露源 Remove source of exposure 減少暴露機(jī)會 Reduce exposure to source 防止進(jìn)一步暴露 Prevent further exposures 保護(hù)危險(xiǎn)人群 Protect atrisk population 實(shí)施控制措施 Implement control measures Step 8 實(shí)施控制和預(yù)防措施 Implement control and prevention measures 如何控制現(xiàn)有暴發(fā)? How to control the current outbreak? 如何在同一地方避免再有類似暴發(fā)發(fā)生? How to prevent future outbreaks in the same place? 如何避免在相似的情況下發(fā)生其他暴發(fā)? How to prevent other outbreaks in similar situations? 我們可以采取何種預(yù)防措施? What can we learn about prevention? Step 9 0 20 40 60 80 1 10 20 1 10 20 1 10 20 1 10 20 1 10 20 1 10 20 7月 Jul 8月 Aug 9月 Sep 10月 Oct 11月 Nov 12月 Dec cases 0 40 80 120 160 rainfall 病例 cases 雨量 rainfall 暑假 Summer holiday 有一例實(shí)驗(yàn)室確診病例的暴發(fā) An outbreak with one lab confirmed case 20 天20days 20 天 20 days 采取的控制措施應(yīng)考慮到現(xiàn)存問題及更廣泛意義上的問題 Control can consider the ongoing problem and a broader problem. 將調(diào)查結(jié)果進(jìn)行交流 Communicate findings 準(zhǔn)備現(xiàn)場工作 Prepare for field work 證實(shí)暴發(fā)存在 Establish existence of an outbreak Time Verify the diagnosis 驗(yàn)證診斷 確定人、地點(diǎn)和時(shí)間特征 Characterize person, place and time Develop a hypothesis 提出假設(shè) Develop analytic study to test hypothesis 通過分析研究驗(yàn)證假說 Reconsider, refine, retest hypothesis 再推敲,修正和再檢驗(yàn)假說 實(shí)施控制措施 Implement Control 將調(diào)查結(jié)果進(jìn)行交流 Communicate Findings Define, find, and interview cases 定義,搜索,訪談病例 將調(diào)查結(jié)果進(jìn)行交流 Communicate findings 調(diào)查報(bào)告 Investigation report 公告文章 Bulletin article 新聞發(fā)布 Press release 會議報(bào)告 Conference presentation Step 10 誰是你的聽眾? Who is your target audience? 你想表達(dá)的 12條主要信息是什么? What are the 1 –2 main messages you want to get across? 盡量簡單明確! Keep it as clear and simple as possible! 將調(diào)查結(jié)果進(jìn)行交流 Communicate findings Step 10 收集并保存所有情況的記錄! Collect and keep records of everything! 背景 Background 與病例接觸的名單 contacts Line listing of cases 臨床信息 Clinical information 訪談信息 Interview information 暴露信息 Exposure information 實(shí)驗(yàn)室信息 Laboratory information 分析 Analyses