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development phase. ? This preliminary phase will last one year and cost $1billion. Furthermore, the group believes that there is a 60% chance that tests will prove successful. ? If the initial tests are successful, Stewart Pharmaceuticals can go ahead with fullscale production. This investment phase will cost $1,600 million. Production will occur over the next 4 years. McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 83 Decision Trees ? Allow us to graphically represent the alternatives available to us in each period and the likely consequences of our actions. McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 81 ? Introduce new products – Apple Corporation and the mouse ? Develop core technology – Honda and small engines ? Create barrier to entry – Qualm’s patents on proprietary technology ? Introduce variations on existing products – Chrysler’s PT Cruiser ? Create product differentiation – CocaCola—it’s the real thing ? Utilize anizational innovation – Motorola justintime inventory management ? Exploit a new technology – Yahoo!’s use of banner advertisements on the web Corporate Strategy and Positive NPV McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 80 Chapter Outline Corporate Strategy and Positive NPV Decision Trees Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis, and BreakEven Analysis Options Summary and Conclusions McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 82 Corporate Strategy and the Stock Market ? There should be a connection between the stock market and capital budgeting. ? If the firm invests in a positive NPV projects, the firm’s stock price should go up. ? Sometimes the stock market provides negative clues as to a new project’s NPV. ? Consider ATT’s repeated attempts to perate the putermanufacturing industry. McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 84 Example of Decision Tree Do not study Study finance Open circles represent decisions to be made. Filled circles represent receipt of information . a test score in this class. The lines leading away from the circles represent the alternatives. “C‖ “ A‖ “ B‖ “ F‖ “ D‖ McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 86 Stewart Pharmaceuticals NPV of FullScale Production following Successful Test Note that the NPV is calculated as of date 1, the date at which the investment of $1,600 million is made. Later we bring this number back to date 0. Investment Year 1 Years 25 Revenues $7,000 Variable Costs (3,000) Fixed Costs (1,800) Depreciation (400) Pretax profit $1,800 Tax (34%) (612) Net Prof