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【正文】 p. ? Sometimes the stock market provides negative clues as to a new project’s NPV. ? Consider ATT’s repeated attempts to perate the putermanufacturing industry. McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 810 Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario Analysis In the Stewart Pharmaceutical example, revenues were projected to be $7,000,000 per year. If they are only $6,000,000 per year, the NPV falls to $1, Also known as ―what if‖ analysis。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 815 BreakEven Analysis ? Now that we have breakeven revenue as $5, million we can calculate breakeven price and sales volume. ? If the original plan was to generate revenues of $7,000 million by selling the cold cure at $10 per dose and selling 700 million doses per year, we can reach breakeven revenue with a sales volume of only: yearper millio n $10$,5$ volu mesaleseven Break volu me )sales(,5$????? We can reach breakeven revenue with a price of only: doseper $dosesmillio n 7 millio ,5$priceeven Break ??McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 salvage value = $250 Sit on rig。 :39:5122:39Mar2317Mar23 1故人江海別，幾度隔山川。 22:39:5122:39:5122:393/17/2023 10:39:51 PM 1成功就是日復(fù)一日那一點點小小努力的積累。 , March 17, 2023 閱讀一切好書如同和過去最杰出的人談話。 2023年 3月 17日星期五 10時 39分 51秒 22:39:5117 March 2023 1一個人即使已登上頂峰，也仍要自強不息。勝人者有力，自勝者強。 2023年 3月 17日星期五 下午 10時 39分 51秒 22:39: 1楚塞三湘接，荊門九派通。 2023年 3月 下午 10時 39分 :39March 17, 2023 1行動出成果，工作出財富。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 825 Summary and Conclusions ? This chapter discusses a number of practical applications of capital budgeting. ? We ask about the sources of positive present value and explain what managers can do to create positive present value. ? Sensitivity analysis gives managers a better feel for a project’s risks. ? Scenario analysis considers the joint movement of several different factors to give a richer sense of a project’s risk. ? Breakeven analysis, calculated on a present value basis, gives managers minimum targets. ? The hidden options in capital budgeting, such as the option to expand, the option to abandon, and timing options were discussed. McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 819 Discounted Cash Flows and Options ? We can calculate the market value of a project as the sum of the NPV of the project without options and the value of the managerial options implicit in the project. OptNPVM ??? A good example would be paring the desirability of a specialized machine versus a more versatile machine. If they both cost about the same and last the same amount of time the more versatile machine is more valuable because it es with options. McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 813 BreakEv
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