【正文】 響機制 Changes in the precipitation of Cixi during 19972020 and influence mechanism 2 誠 信 承 諾 我謹在此承諾：本人所寫的畢業(yè)論文《慈溪市 19972020 年間降水量變化及影響機制探討》的主體均系本人獨立完成，沒有抄襲行為，凡涉及其他作者的觀點和材料，均作了注釋，若有不實，后果由本人承擔并愿接受校方的處分。 承諾人（簽名）： 2020 年 4 月 17 日 3 目 錄 1前言 ............................................................................................................................................ 6 探究慈溪近年來降 雨量變化機制的重要意義 ...................................................................... 6 慈溪 19972020 年雨熱關系的研究 ..................................................................................... 7 研究內容 ........................................................................................................................... 7 慈溪降雨變化特點 ................................................................................................... 7 慈溪降雨變化的主要影響因素 .................................................................................. 7 研究方法 ........................................................................................................................... 7 2 區(qū)域概況 ..................................................................................................................................... 8 自然地理概況 ..................................................................................................................... 8 區(qū)域氣候特 征 .................................................................................................................. 9 3 數(shù)據與分析 ................................................................................................................................. 9 數(shù)據來源 ........................................................................................................................... 9 數(shù)據處理與分析 ................................................................................................................ 9 慈溪 19972020 年降雨量變化特 征分析 ............................................................................. 11 慈溪 19972020 年月平均氣溫與月降雨量相關分析結果 ....................................................14 慈溪 19972020 年降雨量的主要影響因素 .........................................................................14 季風 .......................................................................................................................14 副熱帶高壓 .............................................................................................................15 鋒面雨帶 ................................................................................................................15 緯度 .......................................................................................................................16 海陸分布 ................................................................................................................16 下墊面條件 .............................................................................................................16 風暴潮 ....................................................................................................................16 厄爾尼諾（ El Ni241。 慈溪作為全國經濟實力強勁的縣級市之一，隸屬寧波市，北臨杭州灣東臨東海，沿海鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)較多，臺風、洪澇災害呈多發(fā)頻發(fā)。 本文利用 19972020 年慈溪的月平均最高及最低氣溫、月平均降水量數(shù)據，通過相關分析法 分析了慈溪氣溫與降雨的相關關系并探究了影響降雨的因素。慈溪降雨的年際變化主要受到 風暴潮、厄爾尼諾等因素的影響。 5 Changes in the precipitation of Cixi during 19972020 and influence mechanism Abstract 【 ABSTRACT】 In recent years, while global climate anomalies, there are few academic researches on regional climate change ,at the same time Cixi precipitation data is rather poor. Cixi located on the south of Hangzhou bay and next to the East China Sea,as one of the developed countrylevel city .cixi is under the control of Ningbo city , where typhoon and flood disaster frequently break are many coastal villages and towns in Cixi .Therefore, it’s of great significance to study the precipitation of Cixi and its influence mechanism . The monthly mean maximum and minimum temperature, monthly precipitation data of 19972020 Cixi, throu