【正文】
hat it is not a question of if, but when its domestic automotive producers are adequately prepared to try to perate the advanced, saturated markets of the West and of Japan. However the weight of evidence indicates that this will not be a serious position for circa five to ten years and when it happens, Chinese producers will follow the path previously trodden by Japan and Korea, but at a much quicker pace. Before this can occur the Chinese need to deal with the serious problems confronting their industry. These include the need to embark on a policy of rationalisation to weed out the weaker firms either through closure or by takeover and merger, leaving possibly only a dozen or so large concerns that are capable of challenging western multinationals. This will not be easy and may require an element of confrontation between the Bejing authorities and provinical governments, leading to directed mergers and factory closures. An even greater degree of rationalisation will be required on the ponent side of the industry. Technically Chinese firms are light on the possession of intellectual property and it is thought that before t